UFC on FX 8 Top Plays, Top Parlays, FAPs and Predictions
Luke Rockhold (-130) vs. Vitor Belfort (+110) 5 Rds.
Rockhold
is the former Strikeforce MW Champion and is super well rounded and
athletic. Vitor Belfort is an explosive
striker with solid BJJ. I agree with
Vegas and the line on this on. I feel
this is nearly a coinflip. Vitor could
win this early by TKO/KO or if this goes to the later rounds I see Rockhold
being able to wear Vitor down and win the decision. Vitor’s cardio is the question mark here but
many of times he doesn’t need cardio as he finishes fights in the first or 2nd
round. This is a hard one to play so we
have no top play on this but have FAPs on this.
Top Play: No top Play on Main Event
Main Event Forced
Action Play: You might want to play a small hedge on prop bets Rockhold by Decision
(+300) and Vitor by TKO/KO +175.
Top Plays:
2
Star Prop bet Dos Anjos vs Dunham goes the distance (-195)- This is going to be
a very competitive fight with two solid grapplers. Dos Anjos does have some
power in his hands but he shouldn’t land clean enough to finish Dunham. I see this fight going to a very close
decision. You might have to take the
over 2.5 if you don’t have prop plays, but I recommend the value on this fight
going the distance.
½ Star
Hacran Dias (+110)- Dias is a very strong grappler with strong wrestling. His opponent Nik Lentz is also a great
wrestler and strong grappler. I see this
being a close fight but there is value on Dias and plus if it goes to the judges
the Brazilian judges should give him the nod.
½ Star
Jussier Da Silva “Formiga” Prop bet by Submission (+300)- This play has value
written all over it. Jussier has a
wonderful submission game and he knows he could struggle with Cariaso in the
standup so he should look to get this to the ground. Cariaso also was subbed in his last fight by
a grappler not as elite as Jussier.
Top Parlays
1
Star Fabio Maldonado; Yuri Alcantara; Ronaldo Souza (+100)
1
Star Rafael Natal; Gleison Tibau (-110)
½ Star
Over 2.5 Rds Tibau vs Cholish; Over 1.5 Rds Rio vs Trinaldo (+125)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs)
For Action Junkies
Gleison
Tibau (-220)
Jussier
Da Silva Formiga (-170)
Paulo
Thiago (-170)
Mike
Rio (+280)
Ronaldo
Souza Prop bet Inside the Distance (-205)
Predictions:
Rockhold
UD
Souza
2nd Rd Sub
Dos
Anjos UD
Natal
UD
Dias
Split Decision
Trinaldo
UD
Tibau
UD
Thiago
UD
Alcantara
2nd Rd Sub
Maldonaldo
3rd Rd TKO
Lineker
UD
Da
Silva 2nd Rd Sub
Martins
2nd Rd TKO
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
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Octagon Locks specializes in MMA Handicapping and predictions. Each fight we analyze and take every factor in consideration from grappling and striking to cardio and weight cuts. As you may know styles make fights and we breakdown each fighters strengths and weaknesses. After we breakdown fights we make predictions, Top Plays, Top Parlays, and Forced Action Plays (FAPs). To buy a Top Plays Package please click on the Pay Pal button at the top right of our page and choose your package. If you have any questions please don't hesitate to contact us at octagonlocks@gmail.com or contact us on twitter @octagonlocks.
Losses- 1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230); 1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)
Last 2 UFC Cards +5.9 Stars (Units)
-Top Plays 5-2 and Top Parlays 1-1= +5.9 Stars or Units
-A $200 dollar bettor who bets our Stars as Units would Profit $1,180 over the last 2 Cards!
UFC Fox 7 Top Plays:
Wins- 2 Star Benson Henderson by Decision (-115); 1 Star Josh Thomson (+155); 1 Star Matt Brown (+290); 1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)Losses- 1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230); 1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)
UFC 159 Top Play:
1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)Definitions of our Plays:
Top Plays
Top Plays are graded from 1 to 5 Stars and are the plays we advise clients to bet on.Top Parlays
Top Parlays are Parlays we advise clients to bet on.Forced Action Plays
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) are plays that missed our Top Plays but have some value. We do not advise clients to bet these plays. FAPs are plays for action junkies who need to bet more fights than we advise. Sometimes these plays are long shot dogs. If you do bet on these please be careful and make your plays small.Monday, May 13, 2013
UFC 159 Top Play, Parlay and Predictions
Jon Jones (-970) vs. Chael Sonnen (+635) 5 Rds Light Heavyweight Title
Jon Jones is the best fighter in LHW division and one of the top fighters walking the planet today. Chael has very good wrestling above average standup and an aggressive gameplan. Jon Jones will be able to stay on the outside and pick apart Sonnen. If Sonnen rushes in recklessly he could eat big shots potentially getting TKOed or possibly Subbed. I could see Jon Jones hurting Chael and going for a submission. Chael can only win this fight if he somehow takes Jones down and possibly TKOs or Subs him. I just don’t see Chael winning this by decision unless somehow he gets takedown after takedown each round. But Jon Jones has never been takedown so it will be interesting to see how Jones fights off his back. The way Chael fights so aggressively could be his greatest asset or greatest downfall. Will Chael slow up his fighting style because he knows Jones is a great counter fighter with dangerous strikes? I see Jon Jones hurting Chael sometime in the 2nd or 3rd Rd and locking in a submission.
Top Play: No top Play on Main Event but for a Forced Action Play you may want to put a small play on Jon Jones by Submission +105 or Jon Jones by TKO +150
Top Play:
1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)- Bisping is very well rounded and will mix it up with striking and takedowns to win the decision.
Top Parlay
Leonard Garcia; Jim Miller (+105)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Jon Jones Prop bet by Sub +105
Sheila Gaff Inside the Distance +712
Jim Miller by UD +150
Predictions:
Jones Submission 3rd Rd
Bisping UD
Nelson TKO 2nd
Davis UD
Miller UD
Khabilov 2nd Rd TKO
St. Preux UD
McMann UD
Bedford UD
Garcia 2nd Rd TKO
Siler UD
Sunday, April 21, 2013
UFC on Fox 7 Top Plays and Parlays Total: 5-2
Benson Henderson (-270) vs. Gilbert Melendez (+250) 5 Rds
Lightweight Title
Benson Henderson is the most complete LW on the planet today. Melendez is very well rounded himself and has strong boxing and wrestling. Benson is probably slightly better than Melenedez in nearly every aspect of MMA and is more athletic. I think Melendez could give Henderson some problems if Henderson chooses to stand at a boxing range and exchange. I really think Henderson will dictate the pace of this fight with his quickness and ability to mix up it up in the striking department and takedowns. Benson Henderson takes this one by UD say (49-46 x3). Take Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115).
Top Play: 2 Star Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115)
Top Plays:
1 Star Josh Thomson (+155)- Thomson is looking great this stage in his career. His wrestling and grappling are his strengths. Nate Diaz struggles with wrestlers and his weakness is his takedown defense. This is not the best matchup for Nate Diaz even though he could possibly finish Thomson with a flurry of punches.
1 Star Matt Brown (+290)- Matt Brown is a dangerous fighter. He has powerful strikes and his grappling keeps improving. Mein is a very slick striker and has some power. I am very surprised this like is so juicy for Brown. I know Mein is confident in his striking but he has to be careful, if Brown lands a heavy combo it could be lights out for Mein.
1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)- Carmont has some pretty explosive strikes, long reach and solid grappling. Larkin is a very crafty striker who uses footwork and angles to confuse fighters. This is an interesting fight but Carmont has more ways to win this. Carmont probably will get a takedown sometime and lock in a submission. I just don’t think Larkin’s grappling is that great.
1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230)- Nijem is a solid grappler and pretty decent all around. Jury steps in the octagon undefeated tonight. He had a smart gameplan and took down Michael Johnson multiple times in his last fight. Johnson has terrible takedown D. Nijem should be able to stuff takedowns and possibly get a takedown or two of his own. The standup is pretty even in this one Jury has the length advantage but Nijem has more power in his strikes. This line should be closer to even.
1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)- Starks has a solid wrestling background and improving standup. He should be able to stay away from Romero’s power and land a takedown. Clifford Starks takes this one by UD.
Top Parlay
Njokuani; Benavidez; Mendes (+115)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
+350 Frank Mir
+120 Tim Means
Predictions:
Henderson UD
Cormier 2nd Rd TKO
Thomson UD
Brown 2nd Rd TKO
Mendes UD
Carmont 2nd Rd Sub
Nijem UD
Benavidez UD
Means UD
Dillashaw 2nd Rd Sub
Njokuani UD
Starks UD
Benson Henderson is the most complete LW on the planet today. Melendez is very well rounded himself and has strong boxing and wrestling. Benson is probably slightly better than Melenedez in nearly every aspect of MMA and is more athletic. I think Melendez could give Henderson some problems if Henderson chooses to stand at a boxing range and exchange. I really think Henderson will dictate the pace of this fight with his quickness and ability to mix up it up in the striking department and takedowns. Benson Henderson takes this one by UD say (49-46 x3). Take Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115).
Top Play: 2 Star Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115)
Top Plays:
1 Star Josh Thomson (+155)- Thomson is looking great this stage in his career. His wrestling and grappling are his strengths. Nate Diaz struggles with wrestlers and his weakness is his takedown defense. This is not the best matchup for Nate Diaz even though he could possibly finish Thomson with a flurry of punches.
1 Star Matt Brown (+290)- Matt Brown is a dangerous fighter. He has powerful strikes and his grappling keeps improving. Mein is a very slick striker and has some power. I am very surprised this like is so juicy for Brown. I know Mein is confident in his striking but he has to be careful, if Brown lands a heavy combo it could be lights out for Mein.
1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)- Carmont has some pretty explosive strikes, long reach and solid grappling. Larkin is a very crafty striker who uses footwork and angles to confuse fighters. This is an interesting fight but Carmont has more ways to win this. Carmont probably will get a takedown sometime and lock in a submission. I just don’t think Larkin’s grappling is that great.
1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230)- Nijem is a solid grappler and pretty decent all around. Jury steps in the octagon undefeated tonight. He had a smart gameplan and took down Michael Johnson multiple times in his last fight. Johnson has terrible takedown D. Nijem should be able to stuff takedowns and possibly get a takedown or two of his own. The standup is pretty even in this one Jury has the length advantage but Nijem has more power in his strikes. This line should be closer to even.
1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)- Starks has a solid wrestling background and improving standup. He should be able to stay away from Romero’s power and land a takedown. Clifford Starks takes this one by UD.
Top Parlay
Njokuani; Benavidez; Mendes (+115)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
+350 Frank Mir
+120 Tim Means
Predictions:
Henderson UD
Cormier 2nd Rd TKO
Thomson UD
Brown 2nd Rd TKO
Mendes UD
Carmont 2nd Rd Sub
Nijem UD
Benavidez UD
Means UD
Dillashaw 2nd Rd Sub
Njokuani UD
Starks UD
TUF 17
Urijah Faber(-450) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+410) 5 Rds
Faber is one of the best 135lbs fighters on the planet. Jorgensen has solid wrestling and average standup. This is one of those fights where the favorite is just better than the dog in every aspect of MMA. The ONLY way Jorgensen might win this fight is to get a lucky KO punch or hurt Faber and finish him by TKO. But good luck trying to knock out Faber and that Jay Leno chin. Lets pull our nuts out and show the bookie we got some and cash on this big favorite. I usually say don’t throw big on heavy favorites, but this is one where I say lock load and pull the trigger.
Top Play: 5 Star Urijah Faber(-450)
Top Plays:
1 Star Cat Zingano (-115)- Cat has solid grappling and powerful aggressive standup. Look for Zingano to bring the fight to Tate. Tate’s standup is her weakness and she will have to get this fight to the ground. I say Zingano wins this by 2nd or 3rd Rd TKO.
1 Star Bart Palaszewski (-160)- Bart is a solid striker, look for Bart to keep this fight standing and pick apart Cole Miller possible getting a TKO stoppage in the later stages of the fight.
1 Star Sam Sicilia (+190)- Sicilia has solid standup with power in his hands. This fight seems like it should be near a coin flip.
Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):
Travis Browne Inside the Distance (-140)
Urijah Faber Inside the Distance (-140) (5 Rd. Fight)
Bristol Marunde (+140)
Predictions:
Faber 3rd Rd Sub
Hall 2nd Rd TKO
Zingano 2nd Rd TKO
Palaszewski 3rd Rd TKO
Pineda UD
Sicilia 2nd Rd TKO
Browne 2nd Rd TKO
Marunde 1st Rd Sub
Faber is one of the best 135lbs fighters on the planet. Jorgensen has solid wrestling and average standup. This is one of those fights where the favorite is just better than the dog in every aspect of MMA. The ONLY way Jorgensen might win this fight is to get a lucky KO punch or hurt Faber and finish him by TKO. But good luck trying to knock out Faber and that Jay Leno chin. Lets pull our nuts out and show the bookie we got some and cash on this big favorite. I usually say don’t throw big on heavy favorites, but this is one where I say lock load and pull the trigger.
Top Play: 5 Star Urijah Faber(-450)
Top Plays:
1 Star Cat Zingano (-115)- Cat has solid grappling and powerful aggressive standup. Look for Zingano to bring the fight to Tate. Tate’s standup is her weakness and she will have to get this fight to the ground. I say Zingano wins this by 2nd or 3rd Rd TKO.
1 Star Bart Palaszewski (-160)- Bart is a solid striker, look for Bart to keep this fight standing and pick apart Cole Miller possible getting a TKO stoppage in the later stages of the fight.
1 Star Sam Sicilia (+190)- Sicilia has solid standup with power in his hands. This fight seems like it should be near a coin flip.
Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):
Travis Browne Inside the Distance (-140)
Urijah Faber Inside the Distance (-140) (5 Rd. Fight)
Bristol Marunde (+140)
Predictions:
Faber 3rd Rd Sub
Hall 2nd Rd TKO
Zingano 2nd Rd TKO
Palaszewski 3rd Rd TKO
Pineda UD
Sicilia 2nd Rd TKO
Browne 2nd Rd TKO
Marunde 1st Rd Sub
Monday, March 25, 2013
WSOF 2 Top Plays
Andrei Arlovski (-120) vs. Anthony Johnson (+110) HW Bout
Arlovski
is known for his striking and power in his. He has had problems with his chin and many
people think his chin is shot. Anthony
Johnson beefed up to 230 lbs for this fight and he didn’t look bloated. Johnson is a big man and had no business
fighting at a starved 170 lbs and even 185 lbs.
His natural weight class is probably 205 but he has the strength to beef
up and fight at HW. Johnson has solid
wrestling and explosive striking.
Arlovski has been working with Greg Jackson so you can expect him to probably
counter fight and defend takedowns. I
see Johnson being the one pushing the pace and he could use his wrestling to
gain takedowns in this fight. Arlovski
is very dangerous with his hands and could KO Johnson, but Johnson has more
tools to win this fight. Johnson could
either KO or TKO Arlovski or even decision him if he wants to use his wrestling
and clinch work. Take Anthony Johnson (+110).
Top Play: 1 Star Anthony Johnson (+110)
David Branch (-220) vs. Paulo Filho (+185)
Branch
has a solid BJJ game with some decent takedowns. His standup is very basic and he is not a
power puncher. He usually flashes his
jab and looks for takedowns at certain points in the fight. Paulo Filho is an aggressive fighter with solid
power in his hands. Filho’s BJJ game
very solid and he can get the fight to the ground with takedowns. Filho does have a history of drug problems
and is not the same fighter we saw 5 years ago when he defeated Chael
Sonnen. Filho could gas in the later
rounds and that makes him a slight liability.
There is no way I could think about taking David Branch at (-220). Filho could finish this fight or win a
Decision by pressing the action. Take
Paulo Filho (+185).
Top Plays: 1/2 Star Paulo Filho (+185)
Justin Gaethje (-150) vs. Gesias Cavalcante (+130)
Gaethje
has a wrestling background and pretty solid standup. Gesias “JZ” is a vet with many big fights
under his belt. At first I was thinking “JZ”
is the pick but he is so up and down.
Look for Gaethje to use his wrestling and push JZ against the cage. This fight should go to decision. Take the Over 2.5 Rds. (+120)
Top Plays: 1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Gaethje vs Cavalcante
(+120)
UFC 158 Top Plays and Parlay
George St. Pierre (-525) vs. Nick Diaz (+450) 5 Rds Welterweight
Title
GSP
is very athletic, well rounded with some of the best takedowns and top control
in MMA. Nick Diaz has great cardio,
granite chin, boxing and BJJ. Diaz will
try to make this a brawl as he will try to hunt down GSP throwing
combinations. GSP will look to mix in
takedowns with his strikres and limit exchanges in the pocket. GSP will only win this fight by
decision. If Diaz wins this fight it
will be by Sub or TKO. It is highly
unlikely GSP finishes Diaz. My
prediction is GSP by UD but with this line being at -525, there is no value on
GSP unless you parlay him or take him by decision. I know you guys want a play for this fight so
either take GSP by UD at -230 ish or if you want to gamble and throw a little
on Nick Diaz at +450.
Top Plays: Take your choice: (never done this but I am
not in love with either bet) GSP by Dec -230 or Diaz +450 Note: Might as well count this as a FAP because I can’t
count this towards my overall record
Top Plays:
1/2
Star Carlos Condit (+120)- Condit has the longer reach and should stay on the outside
with his Muay Thai..If it hits the ground Condit has been able reverse position
with his BJJ in the past…Close fight here but lets put a little on the dog
1
Star Nate Marquardt (+150)- Ellenberger has been known to gas in the later
rounds. Marquardt is a more technical
fighter and should take this by a late finish or possibly Decision
2
Star Darren Elkins (-200)- Elkins is a solid wrestler and grappler. Look for him to take this fight to the ground
multiple times on his way to a decision victory.
Top Parlay
1
Star Rick Story; Mike Ricci: TJ Dillashaw (-110)
Forced Action Plays (For Action
Junkies):
George
Roop +125
Under
2.5 Rds Dillashaw vs Tamura (+140)
Predictions:
GSP
UD
Condit
UD
Marquardt
3rd TKO
Camozzi
UD
Ricci
UD
Cote
UD
Elkins
UD
Mein
UD
Cruickshank
UD
Story
UD
Dillashaw
2nd Rd. Sub
Roop
2nd Rd TKO
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