UFC Fight Night 30 we Cash Again

Lyoto Machida (-380) vs. Mark Munoz (+315) 5 Rds.

Machida is a wonderful counter striker with solid grappling and takedown defense.  Munoz has a solid wrestling base with pretty good striking.  Machida should be able to keep this fight standing and pick his spots.  Munoz throws many wild punches and will have to take chances to be competitive in this fight.  Machida should catch Munoz with a counter flurry and put him away sometime in the 3^rd Rd.

Top Play:  1 Star Prop Bet Lyoto Machida wins Inside the Distance (-105)

Top Plays:

1 Star Al Iaquinta (-140)- Iaquinta is a solid wrestler and boxer with power in his hands.  He continues to improve his grappling and BJJ.  Hallmann is pretty well rounded, but look for Iaquinta to land the bigger shots on his way to a decision victory or late TKO.

1 Star Andrew Craig (-175)- Craig is well rounded and has the ability to finish fights.  His opponent Barnatt is lanky with a slight reach advantage.  Craig has more ways to win this fight as he has more power and better wrestling.  Craig could land big strikes and win by TKO or use his wrestling to win on points.

½ Star Andy Ogle (+165)- Ogle is a solid boxer with underrated wrestling/grappling.  He has the advantage on the feet vs Cole Miller.  Cole Miller’s strength is his BJJ and submissions, but Ogle has shown strong grappling and submission D.  Miller could get the submission but his takedowns aren’t very good so I don’t see him getting a dominant position in the grappling unless he reverses or sweeps Ogle.  Ogle could even get top position with his superior wrestling, but I think he uses his Defensive wrestling to keep this standing and outpoint Miller.  Ogle should win this by Decision.

Top Parlays:

1 Star Lyoto Machida; John Lineker (-155)

½ Star WSOF Parlay: Josh Burkman; Marlon Moraes; Jon Fitch; Justin Gaethje (+150)

Predictions:

Machida 3^rd Rd TKO

Guillard 2^nd Rd TKO

Manuwa 2^nd Rd TKO

Parke UD

Sakara 2^nd Rd TKO

Lineker 2^nd Rd TKO

Iaquinta UD

Craig UD

Andrade UD

Ogle UD

Hettes 2^nd Rd Sub

Kuiper 2^nd Rd

UFC 166 4-0

Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+170) 5 Rds. UFC Heavyweight Title Match

This is a tough fight to call and I am going to not Top Play anything on here.  I am leaning Cain to win by UD or late TKO.  This fight just has too many question marks for me, but there is no way I could take JDS after watching him get beat down for 5 Rds in their last fight. 

Top Play:  No Top Play

Top Plays:

1 Star Prop Bet Melendez vs. Sanchez goes 3 Round Distance (-215)- Both of these fighters are extremely hard to finish and this should be more competitive than the line indicates.  Between both these guys Diego was only finished once in the 5^th Rd by BJ Penn.  I almost sprinkled a little on Diego because he is at +450, but I decided not too as Gilbert should out point Diego.  This fight is going to decision.

½ Star Gabriel Gonzaga (+160)- Gonzaga has power in his hands and a solid grappling/submission game.  His chin is questionable and Jordan packs power, but it seems like Gonzaga has improved his striking and striking defense.  I think this fight should be a coin flip so let’s play the dog with the better ground game.

½ Star KJ Noons (-160)- KJ Noons is a very good boxer with power in his hands.  His opponent Sotiropoulos is a very solid grappler with average standup.  Noons should be able to defend takedowns and find Sotriropoulos’s chin and finish this fight by TKO.

Top Parlay:

1 Star John Dodson; Tim Boetsch (+105)

Predictions:

Velasquez 4^th Rd TKO

Cormier UD

Melendez UD

Gonzaga 2^nd Rd Sub

Dodson 2^nd Rd TKO

Boetsch UD

Lombard 2^nd Rd TKO

Kaufman UD

Noons 2^nd Rd TKO

Amagov 2^nd Rd TKO

Ferguson UD

Fili 3^rd Rd TKO

Horiguchi UD

Bellator 104 1-0 Cashing in on a 2 Star +150

Top Play:  

2 Star Paul Bradley (+150)- Bradley has a NCAA Division I wrestling background from Iowa and is a well rounded MMA fighter.  His opponent Amoussou can finish fights with his submissions and has some power in his hands, but Amoussou has suspect takedown D.  Amoussou couldn’t stop Askren’s takedowns which is no surprise as Askren is a former Olympic wrestler.  Amoussou also was taken down by David Rickels and controlled on the ground.  I really think Bradley should be the favorite as he is a tough grinder who is a bad matchup for Amoussou.  Bradley should be able to land multiple takedowns and take this by Decision.

UFC Fight Night 29

Demain Maia (-280) vs. Jake Shields (+255) 5 Rds.

Demian Maia has great BJJ and has improved his standup over the years.  Jake Shields is a strong wrestler and grappler who applies constant pressure.  Both of these guys don’t have much power in their hands (especially Shields).  Jake Shields has surprised many people by somehow finding a way to win fights even if he has to by volume striking.  Maia might have a hard time getting Shields to the ground and Shields could land some takedowns and hold top position.  Maia has never fought 5 Rds at 170 lbs so if this goes late rounds he could possibly gas.  I do think this fight will be a close decision.  Lets take the Over 4.5 and small on Jake Shields.

Top Plays:  1 Star Over 4.5 Rds Maia vs Shields (-120); ½ Star Jake Shields (+255)

Top Plays:

1.5 Star Iliarde Santos (-140)- Santos is a well rounded fighter with power in his hands and solid BJJ.  I see him being able to finish this fight by TKO or win by Decision.  Even if this is a close decision the Brazilian judges usually swing the scores in favor of the Brazilian.

Top Parlay:

1 Star Thiago Silva; Mike Pierce (-120)

Predictions:

Maia Split Decision

Erick Silva 2^nd Rd TKO

Thiago Silva 2^nd Rd TKO

Maldonaldo UD

Pierce 3^rd Rd TKO

Dillashaw UD

Alcantara UD

Cabral UD

Santos UD

Patrick UD

Link below to Purchas my Top Plays for MMA Events

All of my MMA Top Plays are available at http://www.premiumsportsplays.com

Bellator 101 Top Play 1-0

Saad Awad (-175) vs. Martin Stapleton (+165)

Awad is a dangerous striker with heavy hands and pretty solid grappling.  His opponent Stapleton has fought in Europe against lesser competition.  This line opened with Awad as a -280 favorite.  I see Awad being able to do damage in the striking and hurt Stapleton and maybe finish him by TKO or win on points.  Stapleton will be outclassed in the striking and the grappling should be close, but I see Awad being able to defend takedowns effectively enough not to lose this on points.  I agree with Vegas and think Awad should be a bigger favorite.  I would say lets go 2 Stars on this but we have been cold in MMA lately so lets just be conservative and go with 1 Star.

Top Play:  1 Star Saad Awad (-175)

UFC 165 Top Plays and Predictions

Jon Jones (-900) Alexander Gustafsson (+600) 5 Rds. Lightheavyweight Championship

Jon Jones is arguably the best fighter in MMA today.  Gustafsson is a solid boxer and well rounded but he will struggle with Jones’s wrestling.  If Jones gets Gustafsson on the ground he could finish him by submission or possibly TKO him.  Jon Jones should finish Gustafsson sometime in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. Almost played Jon Jones by Submission at + money but figured we would just take him inside the distance.

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet Jon Jones wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Costa Philippou (-150)- Philippou is a dangerous striker with solid takedown defense.  Carmont will look to limit exchanges and setup takedowns.  Philippou is the better striker and should be able to defend Carmont’s takedowns and win by decision or TKO in the late stages of the fight.

½ Star Mitch Gagnon (+150)- Gagnon is a solid grappler with good submissions and improved striking.  Kimura has some slick submissions and is pretty well rounded.  I see Gagnon out striking Kimura and hurting him then submitting him or possibly winning on points.  Mitch Gagnon should take this in his home country.

Predictions:

Jones 3^rd Rd Sub

Barao UD

Mitrione 2^nd Rd TKO

Philippou 3^rd Rd TKO

Nurmagomedov UD

Jury UD

Menjivar 2^nd Rd TKO

Thompson 2^nd Rd TKO

Gagnon 2^nd Rd Sub

Makdessi UD

Prazeres UD

Caceres UD

Omielanczuk 2^nd Rd Sub

UFC Fight Night 28 Top Plays and Predictions

Glover Teixeira (-440) vs. Ryan Bader (+350) 5 Rds.

Teixeira is a 2^nd Degree Black Belt in BJJ, strong boxer, solid wrestler and a finisher. Ryan Bader is a former NCAA division 1 wrestler and has some power in his hands but is not a very technical striker.  Teixeira should be able to stuff Bader’s takedowns and brutalize him on the feet on his way to a TKO/KO victory sometime in round 2.  I could also see Glover hurting Bader with a punch then jumping on a submission to finish Bader.  Teixeria wins this fight inside the distance of 5 Rounds. 

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Yushin Okami vs. Ronaldo Souza (-150)- Okami is a well rounded grappler with technical striking and likes to work his jab.  Souza has some of the best BJJ in the UFC with explosive striking but doesn’t put together many combinations. Okami has never been submitted and I think Okami is a live dog and I almost Top Played him but I was worried that this will be a close decision and the judges will give it to Souza because they are in Brazil.  You might want to go small on Okami but I believe this one goes to Decision. 

Top Parlays:

½ Star Glover Teixeira; Joseph Benavidez; Francisco Trinaldo (-110)

½ Star Prop Bet Francisco Trinaldo vs Piotr Hallman won’t go 3 Rd. Distance; Prop Bet Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius won’t go 3 Rd. Distance (+115)

Predictions:

Teixeira 2^nd Rd TKO

Souza Split Decision

Benavidez 2^nd Rd TKO

Trinaldo 2^nd Rd TKO

Natal UD

Bagautinov 1^st Rd TKO

Arantes 3^rd Rd Sub

Zeferino UD

Hernandez 3^rd Rd TKO

Jorge UD

Villefort UD

UFC 164 Predictions and Top Plays 1-2

Benson Henderson (-125) vs. Anthony Pettis (+105) 5 Rds. Lightweight Championship

Henderson is super well rounded and athletic.  Henderson has shown the ability to win rounds and that game plan has suited him well in his title defenses.  Pettis is a dangerous striker and solid grappler.  If Pettis has a weakness it would be his wrestling.  Henderson is the better wrestler and has improved his takedowns since the first fight.  Look for Henderson to get multiple takedowns in this fight on his way to a decision victory. (might want to go small wager on the over 4.5 Rds I feel this goes to decision)

Top Play:  1 Star Benson Henderson (-115)

Top Plays:

½ Star Jamie Varner (-105)- Varner and Tibau are well rounded fighters.  Varner has more of a wrestling base and Tibau has more of a BJJ base grappling.  I see Varner being more active on the feet and possibly get this fight to the ground in the later rounds when Tibau begins to gas. Varner wins this by decision.

1 Star Soa Palelei (+130)- Palelei has power in his hands and solid grappling.  His opponent Krylov is pretty dangerous but has fought lower competition.  Palelei could get the KO in the standup or drag this to the ground with his wrestling and possibly get a ground and pound finish.

Predictions:

Henderson UD

Barnett UD

Mendes UD

Vera 3^rd Rd TKO

Koch UD

Varner UD

Elliot UD

Krauss UD

Kang 2^nd Rd Sub

Palelei 1^st Rd TKO

Iaquinta 3^rd Rd TKO

Hamman 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC Fight Night 27 Top Plays and Parlay go 2-1

Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+220) 5 Rds.

Kampmann won the first fight and this is the rematch. Condit has a granite chin, slick BJJ and strong Muay Thai striking.  His wrestling D isn’t great but Kampmann is not a pure wrestler.  Kampmann did take Condit down in the first fight and he could do so.  Look for Condit to land the bigger strikers and wear down Kampmann in the late rounds. I see Condit hurting Kampann late and TKOing him or possibly winning on points.

Top Play:  No Top Play (Included on 1 Star Parlay listed below)

Top Plays:

1 Star Brian Melancon (+255)- Melancon has powerful striking with solid wrestling.  Gastelum is a solid wrestler and throws powerful but wild punches.  Money flooded in on Gastelum and makes this line better for us.  Look for Melancon to out strike Gastelum and capitalize on an opening and hurt Gastelum and win by TKO or possibly on points.

½ Star Court McGee (+140)- Court McGee has solid boxing and a good ground game. Whittaker has some power in his punches and is primarily a boxer.  This should be a close fight and McGee could outstrike Whittaker with his volume punching or he could get Whittaker against the cage and grind it out. Court McGee takes this on a close decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Carlos Condit; Brad Tavares (-145)

Predictions:

Condit 4^th Rd TKO

Dos Anjos UD

Melancon UD

McGee UD

Perez UD

Tavares UD

Andrews 2^nd Rd TKO

Thatch 3^rd Rd TKO

Hioki UD

Head UD

Cummings UD

Turjillo 2^nd Rd TKO