UFC 146 Recap: 3-1 on Top Plays

Lots of finishes and quick fights, but overall a pretty good card.  Our paying members cashed big as we went 3-1 on Top Plays and 1-1 on Top Parlays.  Check out the write up below in which our paying members received.

Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+325)

Cain Velasquez has a strong wrestling base with some KO power in his hands.  Antonio Silva is pretty well rounded, but has a questionable chin and was rocked and finished early by Cormier in his last fight.  Velasquez should win the exchanges in the standup.  Look for Velasquez to use his wrestling to get this fight to the ground and impose his will with strong ground and pound.  Velasquez should finish this fight by TKO or KO in the 2^nd Round.  Take Velasquez as a prop bet to win by TKO/KO at -150. 

Top Play:  2 Star Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO (-150) (Prop Bet)

Roy Nelson (-170) vs. Dave Herman (+150)

Roy Nelson has some above average standup and a pretty solid BJJ game.  Dave Herman is a pretty dynamic striker for the HW division, but has real problem with his cardio.  Herman’s last two fights he nearly gassed in the 2^nd round.  The first round should be a close one and we wouldn’t be surprised if Herman takes the 1^st round.  Roy Nelson has a great chin and should weather the early storm from Dave Herman and eventually finish Herman in the 2^nd Round.  Take Roy Nelson -170.

Top Play:  2 Star Roy Nelson (-170)

Dan Hardy (-125) vs. Duane Ludwig (+105)

Dan Hardy is on a four fight losing streak, but all of his losses are against stronger opponents than Ludwig.  Both of these guys have strong striking, but Hardy has a better chin.  Hardy has a little bit better grappling than Ludwig and will look to use more tools other than his sound striking skills.  Hardy should win in a majority of the standup exchanges and look for him to push Ludwig against the fence and try to wear him down the same way he beat Mike Swick years ago.  Look for Hardy to get a late finish or win this one by Decision.  Take Hardy -125.

Top Play:  4 Star Dan Hardy (-125)

Jacob Volkmann (-160) vs. Paul Sass (+140)

Jacob Volkmann is a very good wrestler with some improved standup.  Paul Sass is primarily a grappler with pretty weak striking and wins his fights by submission.  Volkmann is just the type of wrestler to give Sass problems.  Look for Volkmann to win the standup battle and score a takedown or two in the fight.  He shouldn’t hang out in Sass’s guard.  Sass’s only chance of winning this fight is a lucky submission.  Volkmann should win a pretty one sided decision.  Take Volkmann -160.

Top Play:  2 Star Jacob Volkmann (-160)

UFC 146 Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

4 Star Dan Hardy (-125)

2 Star Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO (-150)

2 Star Jacob Volkmann (-160)

2 Star Roy Nelson (-170)

Top Parlays:

1 Star Velasquez (-400); Over 2.5 Rds. Volkmann vs Sass (-215) = -120

1 Star Miocic (-165); Teixeira (-230) = +130

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):

Daniel Pineda (-130)

Under 2.5 Rds. Barboza vs Varner (+115)

Under 2.5 Rds. Nelson vs. Herman (-155)

Under 1.5 Rds. Johnson vs Struve (-270)

Forced Action Parlay:

Dos Santos (-550); Barboza (-550); Brandao (-290) = -115

Strikeforce Cormier vs. Barnett Recap: 2-0 on Top Plays!

Great night for paying members as our Top Plays went 2-0 and our Forced Action Parlay hit.  The write up below is what paying members received.  Octagon Locks is really excited about UFC 146.  Our package is on sale now just click on the Pay Pal button to the right.

Daniel Cormier (-110) vs. Josh Barnett (-110) Strikeforce Grand Prix Finals 5 Rds.

Cormier is an Olympic wrestler with improved boxing and moves considerably well for a big man.  Josh Barnett has some pretty decent boxing but he relies on his ground game and submissions.  Cormier has the advantage in the standup and will get in and out of the range of Barnett landing combos.  Josh Barnett will struggle in this fight in the standup and will have to try to get this fight to the ground.  Taking down an Olympic wrestler like Cormier is a daunting task.  Look for Cormier to control this fight in the stand up maybe landing a takedown in the fight and eventually finishing Barnett in the 3^rd Round.

Top Play:  2 Star Daniel Cormier (-110)

Gilbert Melendez (-550) vs. Josh Thomson (+425) Lightweight Championship 5 Rds.

Both of these fighters are strong wrestlers and grapplers.  The difference maker in this fight is Melendez has the stronger boxing.  Thomson will look to stay on the outside land some kicks with his punches, while Gilbert will be looking to close the distance and make this a boxing match.  Both fighters have strong takedowns and takedown defense.  We don’t see any fighter finishing each other.  The first two fights went the distance both times as 5 Rds. Fights.  Take the Over 4.5 Rds (-180) 

Top Play:  1 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Melendez vs. Thomson (-180)

Strikeforce Cormier vs. Barnett Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

2 Star Daniel Cormier (-110)

1 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Melendez vs. Thomson (-180)

Forced Action Parlay:

Feijao Cavalcante (-190) Gilbert Melendez (-525)

UFC Fuel Recap:

Here is the recap from our UFC Fuel Top Plays Package.  We went 1-1 on Top Plays and hit our Top Parlay.  The only loss was LeVesseur who was crushing Cody McKenzie and got caught in a guillotine.  It seems the only way we have lost lately is a lucky guillotine.  Stay tuned our Top Plays Package which includes Strikeforce Cormier vs Barnett and possibly a play or two from Bellator 70.

UFC Fuel Top Plays and Parlays:

UFC Fuel Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

3 Star Marcus LeVesseur (-150) This line has been moving like crazy but we recommend you try to get it at the best possible price.  Regardless we like LeVesseur to win this fight.  Cody's only shot is a lucky submission.  LeVesseur has tactical and accurate strikes and a strong wrestling background and pedigree.

1 Star Johnny Eduardo (-110) Eduardo has better stand up and some KO power.  He should keep this standing and pick apart Curran. 

Top Parlays:

1 Star: Dos Anjos (-300); Tom Lawlor (-220)=  (-110)

Forced Action Plays:

Over 3.5 (+165) Poirier vs. Korean Zombie

Under 2.5 (-125) Marcus LeVesseur vs. Cody McKenzie

Bellator 68 and TUF 15 Recap: Top Plays Package 3-0

Paying members cashed big last night hitting 3 out of 3 Top Plays and 2 of the Top Plays were dogs!  Straus won the Bellator Featherweight tournament, Zaromskis won an exciting doctor stoppage and Chiesa gets a TKO stoppage as a +260 dog!  The Marrero vs Petrezulli fight was cancelled last night due to Petrezulli's illness.  Check out our write ups below that paying members received and stay tuned for our Top Plays Package for UFC on Fuel Poirier vs Korean Zombie.  We will also have a Top Plays Package on the Strikeforce event this Saturday May 19th.   

Bellator 68 and TUF 15 Episode 10 Top Plays and Parlays:

Marlon Sandro (-120) vs. Daniel Straus (+110)

Sandro has some technical boxing skills and is a good overall grappler.  Daniel Straus is an explosive wrestler with some solid stand up skills.  Marlon Sandro didn’t look so strong his last outing and won a split decision.  Straus continues to improve with only 1 loss in the last few years.  Straus will mix in his strikes to setup takedowns and look to grind out Sandro.  Sandro doesn’t have much experience fighting a true American wrestler.  Look for Straus to befuddle Sandro and take this fight on points by takedowns and octagon control.  Take Straus +105.

Top Play:  4 Star Daniel Straus (+110)

Marius Zaromksis (-360) vs. Waachim Spiritwolf (+300)

Zaromsksis is a knockout artist with explosive and violent striking.  Waachim Spiritwolf is a brawling type of fighter who looks to land a big KO punch.  Zaromksis striking is on another level than Spiritwolfs.  Zaromskis should control this fight by slowly picking apart Spiritwolf and eventually TKO or KO Spiritwolf in the late 1^st or early 2^nd rd.  Take Marius Zaromskis (-360)

Top Play:  3 Star Marius Zaromskis (-360)

Carmelo Marrero (-125) vs. Seth Petruzelli (+105)

Marrero is primarily a wrestler and Petruzelli is primarily a striker.  Petruzelli struggled with wrestlers in the past.  Marrero has a strong chin and should be able to take Petruzelli off his game by getting takedowns and controlling Petruzelli on the ground.  Look for Marrero to wear down Petruzelli by clinching and pushing him against the cage and scoring takedowns throughout the fight.  This one could be going to the scorecards or Marrero might even crank on a late submission.  Take Carmelo Marrero (-125).

Top Play:  1 Star Carmelo Marrero (-125)

Justin Lawrence (-320) vs. Michael Chiesa (+260)

Justin Lawrence is a young and explosive striker with not many pro fights on his record.  Chiesa is a wrestler and submission artist who likes to get the fight to the ground.  This line opened at about Lawrence (-245) and has been bet all the way to (-320).  We believe this line should have been closer to even.  Lawrence has a couple of recent KO finishes and he will have to KO Chiesa to win this fight or possibly take it on points by keeping this fight standing.  Chiesa has above average standup with some pretty quick and lengthy punches.  He will try to time his takedowns and get Lawrence to the ground to try to work his submission game.  Chiesa could take this by a decision or possibly a 2^nd or 3^rd Rd. submission.  Take Michael Chiesa (+260).

Top Play:  1 Star Michael Chiesa (+260)

Bellator 68 and TUF Top Plays and Parlays:

4 Star Daniel Straus (+110)

3 Star Marius Zaromskis (-360)

1 Star Carmelo Marrero (-125)

1 Star Michael Chiesa (+260)

Sign Up for our Bellator 68 and TUF 15 Top Plays Package! Also a Free Action Play below!

It isn't too late to sign up for our Bellator 68 and TUF 15 top plays package.  We are still offering the package until 8PM EST.  Promotions are still available if you deposit $100 or more using our 5dimes button to the right.

Deposit $100 and receive 1 Top Plays Packages

Deposit $150 and receive 2 Top Plays Packages

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Bellator 68 FAP

Travis Marx (+210)

UFC Fox 3 Recap

Nate Diaz looked amazing, continues to improve and is the first fighter to finish Jim Miller in his 25 fight career!  Diaz will most likely get the winner for Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II.  This was a crazy card in which nearly every underdog won vs the favorite.  The only favorites to win off this card were Hathaway, Bermudez (nearly even) and Hendricks (slight favorite). Octagon Locks delivered 10 Top Plays to paying members with a 6 and 4 record.  It was crazy how some of the fights panned out as Lineker was winning the fight and got caught in a late 2nd Rd. guillotine; Palhares looked to have a heel hook but Belcher slipped out and got some GNP until the ref stopped it.  That is how MMA goes sometimes, luck isn't always on our side.  We are still fairly happy as we picked two dogs on the main card which cashed, Nate Diaz +190 and Lavar Johnson +165.  Stay tuned for the next event and we may have a Top Plays Package on Bellator 68.

UFC Fox 3:  Diaz vs Miller Top Plays and Parlays:

Jim Miller (-230) vs. Nate Diaz (+190) **5 Round Main Event**

Interesting fight here between a grinding wrestler with strong BJJ in Miller and Diaz who is a boxing technician with a Cesar Gracie Black Belt.  We think this fight could go either way and believe the line should be near even.  This is the best Nate Diaz we have seen in the UFC and he will look to stay on the outside and pepper Miller with shots.  Miller will look to close the gap and land takedowns to try to surf out a decision.  This one could go either way and Nate Diaz at +190 is hard to pass up.  Both fighters have iron chins and BJJ should cancel out the instance of a submission.  Take Nate Diaz and the over 4.5 Rds.

Top Plays:  1 Star Nate Diaz (+190); 3 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Miller vs. Diaz (-180)

Johny Hendricks (-140) vs. Josh Koscheck (+120)

This is a hard one to call between two strong wrestlers.  Hendricks probably has the slight advantage in the standup, but this one should get to decision.

Top Play:  2 Star Over 2.5 Hendricks vs. Koscheck (-185)

Rousimar Palhares (-245) vs. Alan Belcher (+205)

Palhares looks to be a man on a mission to climb the UFC ladder.  Belcher is a more technical striker, but he won’t be able to open up his striking unless he wants to end up on his back.  Look for Palhares to get this fight to the ground and soften up Belcher with some GNP before sinking in a submission sometime in the 2^nd frame.  Take Palhares (-245) and the under 2.5 Rds. (-185).

Top Plays:  4 Star Rousimar Palhares (-245); 1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Palhares vs. Belcher (-185)

Pat Barry (-190) vs. Lavar Johnson (+165)

Two heavy handed heavyweights who like to strike going at it here.  Johnson should use his reach to land some big punches on Barry, potentially dropping Barry.  This line should be closer to even and expect this fight to end in the 1^st or early 2^nd Rd. 

Top Play:  1 Star Lavar Johnson (+165); 2 Star Under 1.5 Rds Barry vs. Johnson (-145)

Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+230)

TUF Winner Tony Ferguson has some dangerous power and technical boxing skills.  Michael Johnson has pretty strong wrestling and decent standup.  Michael Johnson’s best chance of winning is to get this fight to the ground and trying to surf out a decision.  The problem is Tony Ferguson is a good wrestler himself with solid takedown defense.  Tony Ferguson will keep this fight standing landing big strikes and eventually finish Michael Johnson in the 2^nd round.

Top Play:  3 Star Tony Ferguson (-270)

John Lineker (-280) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+240)

Lineker uses an aggressive Muay Thai Style attack that Louis Gaudinot will not be able to handle.  Look for Lineker to hurt Gaudinot many times this fight with flurries of punches. Lineker should dominate this fight and look for the refree to jump in and stop this one early. 

Top Play:  4 Star John Lineker (-280)

Dennis Bermudez (-130) vs. Pablo Garza (+110)

Bermudez has solid wrestling, aggressive/powerful standup and a strong chin.  Pablo Garza will not be able to compete with Bermudez’s stand up.  Bermudez should get in and out of the pocket landing nice combos.  Garza’s only chance for the win is a lucky submission.  Bermudez has been known to get caught in submissions, but not this time.  Bermudez lands a big right dropping Pablo and finishes the fight with GNP.

Top Play:  2 Star Dennis Bermudez (-140)

UFC Fox 3 Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

1 Star Nate Diaz (+190)

3 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Miller vs. Diaz (-180)

2 Star Over 2.5 Hendricks vs. Koscheck (-185)

4 Star Rousimar Palhares (-245)

1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Palhares vs. Belcher (-185)

1 Star Lavar Johnson (+165)

2 Star Under 1.5 Rds Barry vs. Johnson (-145)

4 Star John Lineker (-280)

3 Star Tony Ferguson (-270)

2 Star Dennis Bermudez (-140)

Top Parlays:

2 Star: Denis (-290); Lineker (-280); Hathaway vs. Krauss over 2.5 (-250); John Dodson(-500)=  (+206)

1 Star: Dodson (-500); Lineker (-280)= (-163)

UFC Fox 3 Free Forced Action Plays

Top Plays were sent out by email to our paying members.  Ten Top Plays and 2 Parlays on the Fox 3 card from Octagon Locks.  It is not too late to sign up for a Top Plays Package so hurry up and sign up for one!  We are on a 9-1 run on Top Plays.  Today we would like to give some Free Forced Action Plays to our viewers.  Remember, Forced Action Plays are plays that missed our Top Plays selections and are not counted on our Top Plays record.  Enjoy the fights tonight and good luck!

UFC Fox 3 FAPs

Massenzio vs Vemola Over 2.5 Rds. (+135)

Lineker vs. Gaudinot Under 2.5 (-180)

Dodson vs. Elliot Under 1.5 Rds (+130)

Ferguson vs. Johnson Under 2.5 (-150)

UFC Top Plays Promotions **Free Packages** 9 Wins 1 Loss on Last 10 Top Plays

Hello, future members Octagon Locks is promoting a special on Top Plays Packages.  Our Top Plays Packages are usually priced at $15 per Card and contain usually 3 to 5 Top Plays and 1 or 2 Parlays.  To receive a Top Plays Package for UFC Fox 3 just click on the link to the right and deposit $100 or more at 5dimes.  If you deposit $175 or more you receive 2 Top Plays Packages FREE!  Deposit $225 or more and receive 3 Top Plays Packages.  Please feel free to email us at Octagonlocks@gmail.com for any questions. 

Octagon Locks Recent Plays History: 

Top Plays From Latest 2 Cards (UFC 145 and UFC Fuel 2)
1 Star Over 3.5 Rds. Jones vs. Evans (+175) W
2 Star Travis Browne (-290) W
1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Njokuani vs Makdessi (-125) W

1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Carmont vs Cedenblad (-150) W

2 Star Cyrille Diabte (+165) W

2 Star John Maguire (-155) W

2 Star Paulo Thiago (-145) L

2 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Thiago vs. Bahaduzada (-190) W

3 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Nunes vs. Siver (-155) W

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Gustafsson vs. Silva (+100) W

 

Top Parlays

1 Star: Pickett (-260); Reza Madadi (-230); John Maguire (-155)= (+255) W

1 Star: Bocek (-345); Hominick (-550); Schaub (-290); Rory MacDonald(-660)=  (+136) L

1 Star: Blanco (-265); Over 2.5 Danzig vs Escudero (-215)= (+101) L

**Note you must follow our link on our web page for this promotion, which is on the right of the page below the Pay Pal button.