UFC 146 Recap: 3-1 on Top Plays

Lots of finishes and quick fights, but overall a pretty good card.  Our paying members cashed big as we went 3-1 on Top Plays and 1-1 on Top Parlays.  Check out the write up below in which our paying members received.

Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+325)

Cain Velasquez has a strong wrestling base with some KO power in his hands.  Antonio Silva is pretty well rounded, but has a questionable chin and was rocked and finished early by Cormier in his last fight.  Velasquez should win the exchanges in the standup.  Look for Velasquez to use his wrestling to get this fight to the ground and impose his will with strong ground and pound.  Velasquez should finish this fight by TKO or KO in the 2^nd Round.  Take Velasquez as a prop bet to win by TKO/KO at -150. 

Top Play:  2 Star Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO (-150) (Prop Bet)

Roy Nelson (-170) vs. Dave Herman (+150)

Roy Nelson has some above average standup and a pretty solid BJJ game.  Dave Herman is a pretty dynamic striker for the HW division, but has real problem with his cardio.  Herman’s last two fights he nearly gassed in the 2^nd round.  The first round should be a close one and we wouldn’t be surprised if Herman takes the 1^st round.  Roy Nelson has a great chin and should weather the early storm from Dave Herman and eventually finish Herman in the 2^nd Round.  Take Roy Nelson -170.

Top Play:  2 Star Roy Nelson (-170)

Dan Hardy (-125) vs. Duane Ludwig (+105)

Dan Hardy is on a four fight losing streak, but all of his losses are against stronger opponents than Ludwig.  Both of these guys have strong striking, but Hardy has a better chin.  Hardy has a little bit better grappling than Ludwig and will look to use more tools other than his sound striking skills.  Hardy should win in a majority of the standup exchanges and look for him to push Ludwig against the fence and try to wear him down the same way he beat Mike Swick years ago.  Look for Hardy to get a late finish or win this one by Decision.  Take Hardy -125.

Top Play:  4 Star Dan Hardy (-125)

Jacob Volkmann (-160) vs. Paul Sass (+140)

Jacob Volkmann is a very good wrestler with some improved standup.  Paul Sass is primarily a grappler with pretty weak striking and wins his fights by submission.  Volkmann is just the type of wrestler to give Sass problems.  Look for Volkmann to win the standup battle and score a takedown or two in the fight.  He shouldn’t hang out in Sass’s guard.  Sass’s only chance of winning this fight is a lucky submission.  Volkmann should win a pretty one sided decision.  Take Volkmann -160.

Top Play:  2 Star Jacob Volkmann (-160)

UFC 146 Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

4 Star Dan Hardy (-125)

2 Star Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO (-150)

2 Star Jacob Volkmann (-160)

2 Star Roy Nelson (-170)

Top Parlays:

1 Star Velasquez (-400); Over 2.5 Rds. Volkmann vs Sass (-215) = -120

1 Star Miocic (-165); Teixeira (-230) = +130

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):

Daniel Pineda (-130)

Under 2.5 Rds. Barboza vs Varner (+115)

Under 2.5 Rds. Nelson vs. Herman (-155)

Under 1.5 Rds. Johnson vs Struve (-270)

Forced Action Parlay:

Dos Santos (-550); Barboza (-550); Brandao (-290) = -115