Yet another WINNING Night!

Hey guys, great UFC Japan, besides Rampage concealing an injury and then fighting on 1 leg--info that was virtually impossible to come by pre-fight.  Anyways, easy to complain about our ONLY loss of the card, as our highest rated play of the evening (a DOG) cashed easy with Benson Henderson (+135) cruising to a unanimous decision...nothing like getting that extra juice on top!  Pettis and Shields were easy winners, hope you cashed on parlays and straights...til next time MMA fans... p.s. check back soon for breakdown and Top Plays for UFC on FX 2 featuring Martin Kampmann (18-5) vs. Thiago Alves (19-8) headliner!  

UFC 144 Japan

UFC 144 Japan Predictions and Plays

Frankie Edgar (-160) vs. Benson Henderson (+130)

Benson Henderson is the most complete fighter Edgar has faced.  Ben has the slight advantage in the grappling game with his strong submissions.  Edgar has great boxing, footwork and cardio, but look for Henderson to control this fight in the standup and earn a Unanimous Decision victory. 

Top Play: 3 star Benson Henderson (+130)

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170) vs. Ryan Bader(+160)

This line moved from Jackson -260 to -170, which is good because Rampage is a bad matchup for Bader.  Jackson weighed in at 211 which raises eyebrows but he claims he was sick in camp and could not cut the weight as planned.  Rampage will stuff Bader’s takedowns and win in the stand up exchanges and eventually ko/tko Bader or win on UD.

Top Play:  2 star Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170)

Jake Shields (-400) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+300)

Akiyama dropped weight classes to 170 lbs and takes on Jake Shields who is one of the best grapplers in the UFC.  Akiyama has strong stand up skills and could possibly hurt Shields, but Shield’s strong chin will help.  Look for Shields to get 2 or 3 takedowns and control this fight possibly getting a submission or winning on UD.

Top Play:  2 Star Jake Shields (-400) Recommended: Strong Parlay Builder rather than straight wager

Tonight’s Plays:

Top Plays: 3 Star Benson Henderson (+130); 2 Star Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170); 2 Star Jake Shields (-400)

(Forced Action Pick)FAP: Bart Palaszewski (+150) Mark Hunt (+210)

Parlay: 2 Star: Shields(-400) Pettis (-280) Fukuda (-300)

 1 Star: Shields(-400) Pettis (-280) Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170)

Another Profitable Event as we go 2/3 on UFC Fuel TV 1

Stay tuned, as we are preparing for a COLOSSAL UFC 144 card a.k.a UFC Japan!!!

UFC Fuel TV 1

UFC Fuel TV 1:

Hey guys sorry for the late post and I hope you cashed in last time!  Let’s get to business this card has many UFC new comers and middle of the road fighters.  Nothing really hits us in the face as a strong play, however we assembled some juicy picks just for you guys!

Dave Herman (-140) vs. Stefan Struve (+120)

Dave Herman has a strong wrestling background, solid standup and mobility for a Heavyweight fighter.  Stefan Struve has a long reach but never really uses it to his advantage and his strength lies in his ground game and submissions.  The problem is Struve probably won’t be able to get the fight to the ground and gain top control.  The only way Struve wins this fight is a lucky submission off his back.  Look for Dave Herman to keep the fight standing possibly landing a takedown and eventually scoring a big KO punch on Struve late first or mid 2^nd rd.

Top Play: 3 star Dave Herman (-140)

Diego Sanchez (+305) vs. Jake Ellenberger (-365)

Diego Sanchez has a ton of heart and is always pushing forward and forcing the action in a fight.  Diego sports an iron chin with some above average standup and a strong ground game.  Jake Ellenberger is a well rounded fighter with some powerful striking a strong wrestling background and strong clinch work.  In order for Diego to win this fight he will have to push forward and tire out Ellenberger in his way to a grinding Decision victory.   Jake Ellenberger should be able to control this fight and keep it standing landing bigger punches to secure a Decision.  The money however on this fight indicates maybe a small play on Diego being close to a 3 to 1 dog.  We see this fight being more as Ellenberger as a 2 to 1 favorite.  However Diego has only been finished in a Championship fight (5^th Round) by BJ Penn and Ellenberger has only been subbed once in his career.  The strong play in this fight does not rely on a fighter but the over 2.5 rounds (-175).

Top Play: 1 Star Over 2.5 Rounds (-175)

Tonights Plays:

Parlay: 1 star Stipe Miocic (-400); Brookins (-210); Ivan Menjivar (-195)

Top Plays: 3 Star Dave Herman (-140); 1 Star Over 2.5 Rounds Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger (-175)

Solid Night

We went 3 for 4 on our top plays last night only missing out on a +150 risk in Fat country Nelson.  Hope you enjoyed...more to come soon!!!

UFC 143 Predictions and Plays

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

This card features a striker’s delight as Diaz faces Condit in a 5 round war for the UFC Welterweight Interim Title.   Winner to face GSP later this year!  The main card and undercard has some decent fights, but we are not crazy on any of the plays on the card.  Octagon Locks features a Forced Action Play (FAP), which missed our list of “Top Plays.”  We do not consult you to take any Forced Action Plays, but for you action junkies who would like our opinion and want to squeeze a bet out of it more power to you.  We do have some strong plays and breakdowns of the fights, check out our breakdowns below:

Fight Breakdowns and Picks:

Nick Diaz (-200) vs. Carlos Condit (+175)

This should be an amazing main event fight with two explosive strikers on the eve of the Super Bowl.   Note to Dana White: If you wanted to win new fans this was the fight to put on your Fox 2 program rather than that sluggish Davis and Evans fight!

Diaz Strengths: Some of the best boxing and cardio in MMA; Strong Chin; Volume Puncher who likes to dictate a fast pace

Condit Strengths: Finesse Fighter with an explosive striking array; One Punch/Knee Knockout Power; Strong Cardio

Styles makes fights and this fight should explode right from the get go!  Nick Diaz is a very aggressive fighter who will look to stay in Condits face to employ more of a boxing style.  Diaz wants to use his volume punching and cardio to wear down and eventually wilt his opponents.  Condit will have to strike and circle and cannot let his back get to the cage.  Condit is training out of Greg Jackson’s camp and we know his camps are top notch with chess like game plans.  We are leaning towards Diaz in this fight but Condit’s striking power makes this a no play for us.  Yes Diaz has a chin, but this is the best striker he has encountered.  We see this playing out two ways Diaz by UD/late stoppage or Condit by TKO/KO. 

Wager: No Play (if you like Condit his line should get juicer near fight time)

(Forced Action Pick)FAP:  Nick Diaz

Fabricio Werdum (-150) vs. Roy Nelson (+140)

This is one interesting heavyweight fight between two top Heavyweights.  Fabricio Werdum’s strength lies in his grappling and submissions but lacks takedown ability.  Werdum will have to get this fight to the ground if he has a shot.  Werdum’s standup has improved but it is not on par with Roy’s standup.  Werdum has had problems with strikers in the past and believe it or not Roy Nelson is an exceptional striker in the Heavyweight Ranks.  Roy Nelson despite carrying some extra weight actually has some very strong hands and good boxing technique.  Nelson also has an “iron chin” and some very strong grappling himself.

Prediction:  This is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is going to struggle in the standup department and Nelson’s grappling and submission defense will serve him well.  Nelson should be a slight favorite in this fight when you look at how these fighters match up. Look for Nelson to dispose of Werdum dropping with him with a big right and getting the stoppage in mid to late 2^nd round.

Wager:  3 Star Roy Nelson +140 (May want to wait near fight time, Roy could be +160 ish)

Josh Koscheck (-240) vs. Mike Pierce (+200)

Another Welterweight Wrestler vs Wrestler matchup, both of these fighters have a strong Div 1 NCAA wrestling background.  Avoiding length on this write up here are so key points:
-Pierce’s only losses is to other NCAA Div 1 Wrestlers (Fitch, Munoz, Hendricks)

-Koscheck and Pierce’s wrestling and takedown defense should be comparable; Koscheck might have a slight advantage in wrestling

-Koscheck has superior striking and is a little quicker on his feet with the ability to finish the fight with his powerful overhand right

-All of Mike Pierce’s losses have gone to decision. 

Prediction:  This fight should go the distance and Josh Koscheck wins on Unanimous Decision.

Wager: 3 star over 2.5 rounds; 3 star Josh Koscheck -240 straight wager and good parlay builder 

Dustin Poirier (-475) vs Max Holloway

Porier is at the top of the 145 division and was originally supposed to fight Eric Koch.  Max Holloway steps in as a late replacement, which is always a red flag especially going against a top fighter like Porier.  Max Holloway has some strong striking but Porier is a physically stronger and more well rounded fighter.  If Porier looks frustrated in the stand up game look for Porier to clinch up working in some dirty boxing and eventually get this fight to the ground working some GNP and eventually going for sub. 

Prediction: Dustin Poirier late 2^nd round early 3^rd submission due to armbar; Porier is a solid pick which would be a strong parlay builder.  Look for Poirier to put on a parlay, we don’t suggest laying large bucks on a straight wager.

Renan Pegado (-240) vs Scott Jorgensen (+200)

Pegado has a strong BJJ game with very technical boxing, fast counter punches which is the recipe for some the divisions strongest striking.  Scott Jorgensen is your typical hard nose NCAA wrestler, looking to get you to the ground and impose his will.   Jorgensen does have some pretty solid standup with power in his hands.  To win this fight Jorgensen is going to have to avoid exchanging too much in the pocket with Pegado and look for well timed takedowns to control the fight and win on the judge’s scorecards.

Wager: No Play

Forced Action Play:  Jorgensen +200 (good value) Pegado has some dangerous striking and submission game but Jorgensen could neutralize that with takedowns and strong top control.   Renan Pegado has yet to encounter a strong wrestler like Jorgensen, so it is really hard to make a play.  We will learn a lot about Renan Pegado, will he continue to climb the ranks?

Rafael Natal (-185) vs. Michael Kuiper (+155)

Rafael Natal is coming off a win over Paul Bradley and brings a strong BJJ game with some decent standup.  In is opposition is Michael Kuiper whose career has taken place in Europe and debuts in the Octagon first time on American Soil.  Kuiper brings a strong Judo game and some heavy hands, the problem is his experience.  Kuiper has not experienced any top level fighters and he is going up a few classes in competition when he faces Natal.  We are not saying Kuiper doesn’t have a chance, he always has chance with his powerful striking.  Kuiper lacks some fluidity and experience in his BJJ game which is Natal’s strong point.  Kuiper looked very aggressive in his previous fights and looking to tie up and judo trip his opponents.  If he gets sloppy with a throw or with his ground game, Natal could easily take advantage and lock in a submission and send this Dutchman back to his home country with his 1^st loss.  The money looks almost too spot on to recommend a play, but look for this fight to be finished within 3 rounds.   Reasoning: Kuiper fights aggressively with his stand up and takedowns; Natal could get caught by a Kuiper punch and dropped early for a TKO; Natal could end this if Kuiper gets countered with a big counter punch or subbed on the mat; Kuiper has never gone the distance in any of his first 11 fights.

Wager: No Play

Forced Action Play(FAP): Natal (Kuiper has not fought any top competition in the USA)

Straight Wagers (Top Plays)1-5 Stars:

3 star over 2.5 rounds Koscheck vs Pierce

3 star Josh Koscheck -240

3 star Roy Nelson +150

2 star 2.5 rounds under Poirier vs Holloway

(Forced Action Play) FAPs:  Jorgensen +200; Natal -185; Diaz -200

Parlay: Josh Koscheck (-240); Dustin Poirier (-450); Brown (-320)

UFC 143

Top plays, including write-ups and our popular FAP picks for UFC 143 prelims and main card will be available before 11:59 pm EST. Stay tuned... Note: For promotional purposes, all plays, including top plays for UFC 143 will be free of charge!

We're LIVE!

Good to be live on the internet as we gear up for an exciting weekend in MMA predictions, featuring a bad-ass UFC 143 card, with an explosive main even: Condit (+170) vs. Nick Diaz (-210) currently.  With over 5 years in MMA handicapping, no one hits at the clip we do.  Specializing in parlays, straight wager combinations, and totals, we are here to build you're bankroll!  Check back soon!