UFC 143 Predictions and Plays

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

This card features a striker’s delight as Diaz faces Condit in a 5 round war for the UFC Welterweight Interim Title.   Winner to face GSP later this year!  The main card and undercard has some decent fights, but we are not crazy on any of the plays on the card.  Octagon Locks features a Forced Action Play (FAP), which missed our list of “Top Plays.”  We do not consult you to take any Forced Action Plays, but for you action junkies who would like our opinion and want to squeeze a bet out of it more power to you.  We do have some strong plays and breakdowns of the fights, check out our breakdowns below:

Fight Breakdowns and Picks:

Nick Diaz (-200) vs. Carlos Condit (+175)

This should be an amazing main event fight with two explosive strikers on the eve of the Super Bowl.   Note to Dana White: If you wanted to win new fans this was the fight to put on your Fox 2 program rather than that sluggish Davis and Evans fight!

Diaz Strengths: Some of the best boxing and cardio in MMA; Strong Chin; Volume Puncher who likes to dictate a fast pace

Condit Strengths: Finesse Fighter with an explosive striking array; One Punch/Knee Knockout Power; Strong Cardio

Styles makes fights and this fight should explode right from the get go!  Nick Diaz is a very aggressive fighter who will look to stay in Condits face to employ more of a boxing style.  Diaz wants to use his volume punching and cardio to wear down and eventually wilt his opponents.  Condit will have to strike and circle and cannot let his back get to the cage.  Condit is training out of Greg Jackson’s camp and we know his camps are top notch with chess like game plans.  We are leaning towards Diaz in this fight but Condit’s striking power makes this a no play for us.  Yes Diaz has a chin, but this is the best striker he has encountered.  We see this playing out two ways Diaz by UD/late stoppage or Condit by TKO/KO. 

Wager: No Play (if you like Condit his line should get juicer near fight time)

(Forced Action Pick)FAP:  Nick Diaz

Fabricio Werdum (-150) vs. Roy Nelson (+140)

This is one interesting heavyweight fight between two top Heavyweights.  Fabricio Werdum’s strength lies in his grappling and submissions but lacks takedown ability.  Werdum will have to get this fight to the ground if he has a shot.  Werdum’s standup has improved but it is not on par with Roy’s standup.  Werdum has had problems with strikers in the past and believe it or not Roy Nelson is an exceptional striker in the Heavyweight Ranks.  Roy Nelson despite carrying some extra weight actually has some very strong hands and good boxing technique.  Nelson also has an “iron chin” and some very strong grappling himself.

Prediction:  This is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is going to struggle in the standup department and Nelson’s grappling and submission defense will serve him well.  Nelson should be a slight favorite in this fight when you look at how these fighters match up. Look for Nelson to dispose of Werdum dropping with him with a big right and getting the stoppage in mid to late 2^nd round.

Wager:  3 Star Roy Nelson +140 (May want to wait near fight time, Roy could be +160 ish)

Josh Koscheck (-240) vs. Mike Pierce (+200)

Another Welterweight Wrestler vs Wrestler matchup, both of these fighters have a strong Div 1 NCAA wrestling background.  Avoiding length on this write up here are so key points:
-Pierce’s only losses is to other NCAA Div 1 Wrestlers (Fitch, Munoz, Hendricks)

-Koscheck and Pierce’s wrestling and takedown defense should be comparable; Koscheck might have a slight advantage in wrestling

-Koscheck has superior striking and is a little quicker on his feet with the ability to finish the fight with his powerful overhand right

-All of Mike Pierce’s losses have gone to decision. 

Prediction:  This fight should go the distance and Josh Koscheck wins on Unanimous Decision.

Wager: 3 star over 2.5 rounds; 3 star Josh Koscheck -240 straight wager and good parlay builder 

Dustin Poirier (-475) vs Max Holloway

Porier is at the top of the 145 division and was originally supposed to fight Eric Koch.  Max Holloway steps in as a late replacement, which is always a red flag especially going against a top fighter like Porier.  Max Holloway has some strong striking but Porier is a physically stronger and more well rounded fighter.  If Porier looks frustrated in the stand up game look for Porier to clinch up working in some dirty boxing and eventually get this fight to the ground working some GNP and eventually going for sub. 

Prediction: Dustin Poirier late 2^nd round early 3^rd submission due to armbar; Porier is a solid pick which would be a strong parlay builder.  Look for Poirier to put on a parlay, we don’t suggest laying large bucks on a straight wager.

Renan Pegado (-240) vs Scott Jorgensen (+200)

Pegado has a strong BJJ game with very technical boxing, fast counter punches which is the recipe for some the divisions strongest striking.  Scott Jorgensen is your typical hard nose NCAA wrestler, looking to get you to the ground and impose his will.   Jorgensen does have some pretty solid standup with power in his hands.  To win this fight Jorgensen is going to have to avoid exchanging too much in the pocket with Pegado and look for well timed takedowns to control the fight and win on the judge’s scorecards.

Wager: No Play

Forced Action Play:  Jorgensen +200 (good value) Pegado has some dangerous striking and submission game but Jorgensen could neutralize that with takedowns and strong top control.   Renan Pegado has yet to encounter a strong wrestler like Jorgensen, so it is really hard to make a play.  We will learn a lot about Renan Pegado, will he continue to climb the ranks?

Rafael Natal (-185) vs. Michael Kuiper (+155)

Rafael Natal is coming off a win over Paul Bradley and brings a strong BJJ game with some decent standup.  In is opposition is Michael Kuiper whose career has taken place in Europe and debuts in the Octagon first time on American Soil.  Kuiper brings a strong Judo game and some heavy hands, the problem is his experience.  Kuiper has not experienced any top level fighters and he is going up a few classes in competition when he faces Natal.  We are not saying Kuiper doesn’t have a chance, he always has chance with his powerful striking.  Kuiper lacks some fluidity and experience in his BJJ game which is Natal’s strong point.  Kuiper looked very aggressive in his previous fights and looking to tie up and judo trip his opponents.  If he gets sloppy with a throw or with his ground game, Natal could easily take advantage and lock in a submission and send this Dutchman back to his home country with his 1^st loss.  The money looks almost too spot on to recommend a play, but look for this fight to be finished within 3 rounds.   Reasoning: Kuiper fights aggressively with his stand up and takedowns; Natal could get caught by a Kuiper punch and dropped early for a TKO; Natal could end this if Kuiper gets countered with a big counter punch or subbed on the mat; Kuiper has never gone the distance in any of his first 11 fights.

Wager: No Play

Forced Action Play(FAP): Natal (Kuiper has not fought any top competition in the USA)

Straight Wagers (Top Plays)1-5 Stars:

3 star over 2.5 rounds Koscheck vs Pierce

3 star Josh Koscheck -240

3 star Roy Nelson +150

2 star 2.5 rounds under Poirier vs Holloway

(Forced Action Play) FAPs:  Jorgensen +200; Natal -185; Diaz -200

Parlay: Josh Koscheck (-240); Dustin Poirier (-450); Brown (-320)