UFC 145 Recap:

Here are the results paying members received, Top Plays did very well as Travis Browne dominated Griggs, Over 3.5 Rds. Jones vs Evans smoothly went to a decision and Njokuani v Makdessi over 2.5 Rds. cashed which went to a decision!  So close to winning both parlays also as Blanco lost in split decision, Hominick lost a split and Schaub was winning got reckless and got caught then KOed by Rothwell.  Stay tuned for our next Top Plays Package and follow us on Twitter for free plays, MMA talk and Octagon Locks updates. Here are the write ups our paying members received:

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans Top Plays and Parlays:

Jon Jones (-460) vs. Rashad Evans (+365) **Light Heavyweight Championship**

This should be the biggest test Jon Jones has encountered, so don’t think Rashad has no chance in this fight.  Look for Jones to try to keep his distance mixing in kicks while Rashad will try to close the distance and fight at a “boxing distance.”  Jones has never been on his back in the UFC, but look for Evans to score a takedown or two in this contest.  Rashad changes levels well and mixes his dangerous overhand right with quick takedown shots. Jones is an extremely talented fighter with great all around abilities and can finish fights. We are not picking Rashad to win this fight, but he shouldn’t get finished in the early frames.  Rashad’s chin has some question marks but look for Rashad to mix in well timed takedowns and keep from getting rocked on his feet to make it into the championship rounds.  We believe Jones will probably win this fight but his money is not worth it.  The value is on this fight going to the championship rounds, take the Over 3.5 Rounds at +175.

Top Play:  1 Star Over 3.5 Rds. Jones vs. Evans (+175)

Travis Browne (-290) vs. Chad Griggs (+225)

Travis Browne has looked impressive in his UFC career, he is a lengthy fighter with KO power and pretty technical striking.  Chad Griggs is an aggressive striker who is taking a big step up in competition.  Look for this fight to be a standup fight with Browne getting the best of the exchanges and keeping his distance to stick and move.  Griggs could rush in careless with Browne catching him to setup a finish.  Browne should finish Griggs late in the 1^st or early 2^nd by KO or TKO.  Don’t let the late line movement deter you, Travis Browne will win this fight.

Top Play:  2 Star Travis Browne (-290)

Anthony Njokuani (-200) vs. John Makdessi (+170)

This should be a primarily a standup fight as Njokuani and Makdessi like to mix in a lot of kicks with their striking.  Madessi’s only loss is a submission to Dennis Hallman who is a grappler.  Njokuani is less of the aggressor in the standup and will look for more counter striking.  This is a hard fight to call a winner, but if you are looking for a FAP Makdessi might be a good pick for action junkies.  We have not seen enough of Makdessi vs top competition to pick him over Njokuani.  Njokuani went to decision in his last 3 contests and that includes powerful striker Edson Barboza and Andre Winner.  There is a good chance this fight makes it to the 3^rd round and possibly decision.  Take the Over 2.5 at -120.

Top Play:  1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Njokuani vs Makdessi (-125)

UFC 145 Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

2 Star Travis Browne (-290)

1 Star Over 3.5 Jones vs. Evans (+175)

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Njokuani vs. Makdessi (-125)

Top Parlays:

1 Star: Bocek (-345); Hominick (-550); Schaub (-290); Rory MacDonald(-660)=  (+136)

1 Star: Blanco (-265); Over 2.5 Danzig vs Escudero (-215)= (+101)

UFC Fuel 2 Recap:

Overall a fairly exciting UFC event.  Wonderful day for Octagon Locks and paying members who received our Top Plays and Parlay!  We also had a free FAP hit which was Dennis Siver +170.  Hope you guys cashed big on this event. Below are the Top Plays and Parlay our paying members received.  As you can see below we went 6 and 1 on Top Plays and hit our Parlay!  Check back here later this week for more FAPs and our UFC 145 Top Plays Package which will only be $15. 

UFC Fuel 2: Sweden Top Plays and Parlay:

Top plays and parlays for this card. Lots of plays on totals and with the late release of some lines we had to shorten some of the analysis to get these picks to you guys. 

Alexander Gustafsson (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+175)

Gustafsson should use his length to stay away from Thiago’s power and extend this fight to a decision take the over which you could get at plus money some books. 

Top Play:  2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Gustafsson vs. Silva (+100)

Diego Nunes (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+170)

Diego Nunes has gone to decision in most of his recent fights, he should keep from getting finished and will not finish this fight.  Look for this fight to at least go to the 3^rd round and most likely a decision.

Top Play:  3 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Nunes vs. Siver (-155)

 Paulo Thiago (-145) vs. Siyar Bahaduzada (+115)

Both fighters have knockout power in their hands and Thiago has a strong BJJ game to go with it.  Look for this fight to be finished in the first round and Thiago should use his superior ground game to notch a submission win.  Take Thiago and the under 2.5 Rds.

Top Plays:  2 Star Paulo Thiago (-145);  2 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Thiago vs. Bahaduzada (-190)

John Maguire (-155) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+125)

Maguire has a strong ground game with a number of submission victories.  He is one of the few English fighters who uses a strong wrestling base and looks to get takedowns and possible submissions.  DaMarques Johnson has some pretty decent standup but is weak working off of his back as he showed in the Amir Sadhollah fight.  Look for Maguire to score some ground and pound to soften up a submission.

Top Play:  2 Star John Maguire (-155)

Tom Deblass (-210) vs. Cyrille Diabte (+165)

This money is too good to pass Diabte up.  He is known to have some troubles in his ground game, but he should keep his distance and pick apart Deblass. 

Top Play:  2 Star Cyrille Diabte (+165)

Francis Carmont (-280) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (+210)

This one shouldn’t get out the 2^nd Rd.  Both of these fighters have a history of finishing fights with submissions and TKOs.  Take the under 2.5 Rds. 

Top Play:  1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Carmont vs Cedenblad (-150)

UFC Fuel 2 Top Plays and Parlay:

Top Plays:

1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Carmont vs Cedenblad (-150)

2 Star Cyrille Diabte (+165)

2 Star John Maguire (-155)

2 Star Paulo Thiago (-145)

2 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Thiago vs. Bahaduzada (-190)

3 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Nunes vs. Siver (-155)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Gustafsson vs. Silva (+100)

Top Parlay:

Pickett (-260); Reza Madadi (-230); John Maguire (-155)= (+255)

UFC Fuel 2 Gustafsson vs. Silva (Forced Action Plays)

UFC Fuel 2: Sweeden

For all you action junkies here are 2 FAPs for you.  Sign up for our UFC Fuel 2 Top Plays and Parlays Package which is only $15!  We usually include 3 to 5 top plays and 2 parlays. 

Note to All Paying Members: UFC Fuel 2 Top Plays and Parlays will be emailed to you tomorrow before the prelims.


Alexander Gustafsson (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+190)

This fight is a really tough one to call Alexander’s stand up has looked crisp and clean along with his solid ground game and submissions.  Thiago Silva is a true knockout artist with strong BJJ and can ground and pound if needed.  The problem is Thiago Silva has not fought in about 16 months and Gustafsson is in his home country.

Breakdown:  If Thiago is able to close the distance and land big punches he could KO Gustafsson.  Gustafsson will look to keep the distance and not exchange too often in the pocket.  Both of these guys have strong ground games and it is hard to say if either one will shoot for takedowns.  Look for this fight to be standing most of the time. 

Top Play:  No strong play here in our opinion but should be a great war to watch. 

Forced Action Play: Thiago Silva (+190) Thiago has a punchers chance to say the least

Diego Nunes (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+170)

The line on this keeps moving it started near even.  Siver weighed in at 147 lbs on the original weigh in and had a 2^nd attempt in which he made the weight at 145 lbs.  After the weigh ins most of the bets went on Nunes forcing this line to get juicer for Siver.

Breakdown:  This missed our top play because this is Siver’s first time fighting in the featherweight division. He has the tools to beat Nunes and should press forward more and could win a decision over Nunes.  Both fighters have some strong standup skills, but we are worried about Siver gassing in the 3^rd round.

Top Play: No really strong play here Siver’s weight cut could lead to early gassing

Forced Action Play: Dennis Siver (+170) Fight time this could even be juicer

Bellator 65

Cheers, here are a couple of FREE plays for you Bellator fans and MMA junkies!

Predictions:

Ed West vs Marcos Galvao goes to decision (prop bet)

Top Plays: 

2 Star Alexis Vila (-165)

1 Star Eduardo Dantas (-125)

Recent UFC Track Record

Here is our track history over the last couple months of UFC events.  As you can see one of our specialties is fight round totals, with a recent record of 5 wins and 0 losses.  Octagon Locks puts out Top Plays and Parlays which will be paid picks.  But we release some predictions and FAPs (Forced Action Plays) free for our readers.  Forced Action Plays do not count against our track record as these are value plays designed for reads who are action junkies!

UFC 143

Top Plays

3 star over 2.5 rounds Koscheck vs Pierce -210 W

3 star Josh Koscheck -240 W

3 star Roy Nelson +150 L

2 star 2.5 rounds under Poirier vs Holloway -160 W

Parlay:

1 star Josh Koscheck (-240); Dustin Poirier (-450); Brown (-320)= +127 W

UFC on Fuel TV

Top Plays:

3 Star Dave Herman (-140) L

1 Star Over 2.5 Rounds Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger (-175) W

Parlay:

1 star Stipe Miocic (-400); Brookins (-210); Ivan Menjivar (-195)= +179 W

UFC 144 Japan

Top Plays:

3 Star Benson Henderson (+130) W

2 Star Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170) L

2 Star Jake Shields (-400) W

Parlay:

2 Star: Shields(-400) Pettis (-280) Fukuda (-300)= +126 W

1 Star: Shields(-400) Pettis (-280) Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-170)= +169 L

UFC on FX

Top Plays:

3 Star Court McGee (-140) L

2 Star Over 1.5 Rounds McGee vs. Philippou (-205) W

2 Star Thiago Alves (-120) L

1 Star Anthony Perosh (+130) W

1 Star under 2.5 Rds. Anthony Perosh vs. Nick Penner (-145) W

Parlay:

 2 Star Cole Miller (-450); James Te Huna (-300); Joseph Benavidez (-800) = (-120) L

Bellator 64

Bellator 64

Here is a pick to hold you guys over for the upcoming UFC events.

Marlon Sandro (-140) vs. Alexandre Bezerra (+130)

Marlon Sandro is a skilled overall fighter with strong submissions and standup. Bezerra is a pretty talented fighter but has not fought anyone with the skills of Marlon Sandro.  Look for Sandro to win this fight and possibly finish Bezerra.

Top Play:  2 Star Marlon Sandro (-140)

Tonight’s Play:

Top Play: Marlon Sandro (-140)