TUF Finale 16 Top Plays/Parlay 3-1

Top Plays: 

Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Matt Mitrione (+220)

Nelson has a great chin and some power in his hands also an underrated ground game.  Mitrione has above average boxing and a decent grappling game.  Nelson is rightfully the favorite and should win this fight probably sometime in the 3^rd or 4^th round with a TKO.  If you would like to bet Nelson straight I don’t see any reason not to but we have a parlay on him but Take the Over 1.5 Rds. (-185).

Top Play:  1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Nelson vs Mitrione (-185)

Top Plays with Short Write Ups Due to Time Restraints

3 Star Dustin Poirier (-250)- Poirier has better stand up, grappling and is more athletic than Brookins; Poirier should have the advantage anywhere this fight goes

1 Star Mike Pyle (-150)- This like opened around Pyle (-285); Public money went on Head who is improving but Pyle should outpoint Head in this one and possibly get the TKO.

Top Parlay

1 Star Roy Nelson; Dustin Poirier= (-105)

Forced Action Plays

Mike Ricci (-220)

Over 1.5 Rds. Waldburger vs Catone (-105)

Marcos Vinicius (+210)

Predictions

Nelson 4^th Rd TKO

Ricci UD

Del Rosairo 1^st Rd Sub

Poirier 2^nd Rd Sub

Pyle UD

Vinicius 3^rd Rd Sub

Pichel 2nd Rd TKO

Waldburger 3^rd Rd Sub

UFC on FX 6 Top Play and FAPs

Top Play:  

Ross Pearson (-125) vs. George Sotiropoulous (+105)

Pearson has strong boxing and solid takedown defense.  G-Sot is a grappler with very strong submissions.  Pearson has to keep this fight standing by throwing good combos along with footwork.  G-Sot has to get this to the ground or he will get picked apart in the striking.  If G-Sot gets this to the ground he has a very good chance of locking in a submission.  This one should be a close fight but take Ross Pearson (-145).  Also the only way G-Sot probably wins this fight is by submission so you may find it worth putting a small play on G-Sot by Sub (+300) (Forced Action Play).

Top Play:  1 Star Ross Pearson (-125)

Top Play

1 Star Ross Pearson (-145)

Forced Action Plays

Seth Baczynski (+340)

Joey Beltran (+250)

UFC on Fox 5 Predictions and Plays

Ben Henderson (-170) vs. Nate Diaz (+150)

Henderson is a very well rounded fighter with no true weaknesses.  Nate Diaz continues to improve with his high volume punching and takedown defense.  Nate was able to stuff Jim Millers takedowns using a strong Judo base to keep the fight standing.  Diaz should be able to control the standup with his boxing.  As Diaz wears down Henderson with punches look for Henderson possibly get subbed when he shoots in with a sloppy takedown attempt possibly in the 4^th or 5^th round.  Diaz could take this by decision but I think he will lock in a submission and force Henderson to tap.  Take Nate Diaz (+150)

Top Play:  2 Star Nate Diaz (+150)

Mike Swick (-170) vs. Matt Brown (+150)

Swick looked pretty solid in his last fight after the layoff.  Swick has solid striking and pretty good sub game.  Matt Brown is primarily a striker/brawler with a solid chin but his weakness is his submission defense and grappling.  Look for Mike Swick to lock in a submission sometime in the 2^nd round or possibly take this one by decision. Take Mike Swick (-170).

Top Play:  1 Star Mike Swick (-170)

Top Plays with a Short Write Up (Due to Time Restraints)

2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-185)- Stephens has pretty good wrestling and striking. His chin is much stronger than Yves Edwards and he has much more power in his hands.  Look for Stephens to connect and put Yves to sleep with a big punch in the 2^nd Rd.  Take Jeremy Stephens (-185).

3 Star Dennis Siver (-280)- Siver has been undervalued in nearly all of his fights. Siver has great kickboxing and will keep this fight standing against Phan landing big punches and kicks. Siver will take this either by a late TKO or by Decision. Take Dennis Siver (-280).

Top Parlays:  1 Star Dennis Siver (-280); Jeremy Stephens (-185)= (+110)

1 Star Jorgensen (-275); Mike Easton (-275)= (-115)

Top Plays

2 Star Nate Diaz (+150)

1 Star Mike Swick (-170)

2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-185)

3 Star Dennis Siver (-280)

Forced Action Plays

Shogun Rua prop bet by KO/TKO (+415)

Rory MacDonald prop bet by Decision (+110)

Mike Easton prop bet by Decision (-110)

Predictions

Diaz- 4^th Rd. Sub

Gustafsson- UD

MacDonald- UD

Swick- 2^nd Rd Sub

Stephens- 2^nd Rd TKO

Easton- UD

Nijem- UD

Cruickshank- UD

LeVessuer- UD

Siver- 2^nd Rd. TKO

Jorgensen- 2^nd Rd Sub

UFC 154 Top Plays and Parlays Overall 5-3

Georges St.-Pierre (-320) vs. Carlos Condit (+260)

GSP is extremely talented and well rounded.  Condit has explosive striking with KO power and solid BJJ.    Condit’s biggest weakness plays into GSP’s strength, which is Condits lackluster Takedown D vs GSP’s explosive takedowns and top control.  Look for GPS to point fight using takedowns and ground and pound to control this fight.  GSP probably won’t want to stand and strike too much with Condit.  GSP racks up points and takes this one by UD.  Take GSP prop by Decision (-150).  If you are scared to take GSP by Dec. don’t be scared to take GSP at -320, I still think this is a favorable line and GSP should be around (-500).

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet GSP by Decision (-150)

Top Plays with Short Write ups (Due to time restraints)

1 Star Cyrille Diabate (-155)- Diabate is a talented striker and Griggs is a brawler; Look for Diabate to win the standup battle with a possible TKO but mostly likely takes this on points.

1/2 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Diabate vs Griggs (+135)- Diabate is good at keeping distance and should stay away from Griggs power.  The plus money makes this a decent bet.

2 Star Mark Bocek (+130)- Bocek and Dos Anjos have strong BJJ but look for Bocek to score the takedowns and keep top control long enough in this fight to take it on points.

1 Star Sam Stout (-210)- The early line on this was Stout around -400.  The public bet this line down considerably.  This looks like a favorable line for Stout, he has a solid chin and more experience than Makdessi.

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maguire vs. Riddle (-220)- This one should go to Decision. I feel the money even at (-220) makes it a decent play. Both have strong chins and pretty strong grappling games.  Neither are really big power punchers, this one is probably going to Decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Ivan Menjivar (-280); Francis Carmont (-255); Antonio Carvalho (-310)= +150

1 Star GSP (-320); Over 2.5 Rds. Bocek vs Dos Anjos (-170)= +110

Top Plays

2 Star Prop Bet GSP by Decision (-150)

1 Star Cyrille Diabate (-155)

1/2 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Diabate vs Griggs (+135)

2 Star Mark Bocek (+130)

1 Star Sam Stout (-210)

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maguire vs. Riddle (-220)

UFC on Fuel 6 Top Plays and Parlay

Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Cung Le (+290) 5 RDS.

Rich Franklin is a solid striker with great boxing and power in his hands.  Cung Le is a solid striker also, but has a suspect chin.  Franklin is better than Le in nearly every aspect of MMA other than pure kicks.  Look for Rich to wear down Le with combinations and eventually finish Le sometime in the 3^rd Rd.  Take Rich Franklin (-350).

Top Plays: 3 Star Rich Franklin (-350); 1 Star Prop Bet Rich Franklin inside the distance (-190)

Dong Hyun Kim (-270) vs. Paulo Thiago (+230)

Hyun Kim is well rounded with exceptional Judo.  Thiago has solid grappling and KO power in his hands.  The line seems a little off on this one.  We believe this line should be closer to even.  Take Paulo Thiago (+230)

Top Play: 1 Star Paulo Thiago (+230)

John Lineker (-145) vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani (+125)

Lineker has some explosive striking and KO power in his hands.  Look for him to win this fight on points or land a big punch and finish Urushitani by TKO sometime in the 2^nd or 3^rd Rd.  Take John Lineker (-145).

Top Play: 1 Star John Lineker (-145)

UFC on Fuel 6 Top Plays and Parlay:

Top Plays:

3 Star Rich Franklin (-350)

1 Star Prop Bet Rich Franklin wins inside the distance (-190)

1 Star Paulo Thiago (+230)

1 Star John Lineker (-145)

Top Parlay:

2 Star Thiago Silva; Riki Fukuda

UFC 153 Top Plays 4-2 Top Parlays 2-0! Overall 6-2!

Anderson Silva (-1100) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+700) 3 Rds.

Anderson Silva needs no introduction, he is the greatest striker on the planet with a well rounded game.  Bonnar can take tons of punishment and keep coming.  Bonnar has been TKOed due to cuts, but look for Silva to slowly pick apart Bonnar on his way to a 3^rd Round finish or a Decision Victory.  Take the Over 1.5 Rds. Silva vs. Bonnar (-170)

Top Play: 2 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Silva vs. Bonnar (-170)

UFC 153 Top Play, Parlays and FAPs:

Top Plays

2 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Silva vs. Bonnar (-170)

1 Star Erick Silva (-140)

4 Star Demian Maia (-145)

½ Star Prop Bet Maia by Sub (+310)

1 Star Chris Camozzi (+130)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Madadi vs Marcello (+165)

Top Parlays:

1 Star Glover Teixera; Phil Davis

1 Star Diego Brandao; Gleison Tibau

FAPs(Forced Action Plays)

Prop Bet Anderson Silva by Dec (+260)

Prop Bet Antonio Nogueira Inside the Distance (-150)

Sam Sicilia (+210)

Predictions

Anderson Silva UD

Nogueira 2^nd Rd Sub

Teixeira 3^Rd Rd TKO

Erick Silva 2^nd Rd TKO

Davis 2^nd Rd Sub

Maia 2^nd Rd Sub

Sicilia 2^nd Rd TKO

Tibau UD

Brandao 1^st Rd TKO

Moraes 2^nd Rd Sub

Camozzi 3^rd TKO

Madadi UD

UFC on FX 5 Top Plays, Parlay and Predictions

Travis Browne (-225) vs. Antonio Silva (+175) 5 RDS.

Travis Browne keeps improving in the Octagon.  He has an undefeated record with a solid standup game and ground game.  Look for Travis Browne to win this fight in the standup and drop Silva with punches sometime in the 2^nd Rd.  Take Travis Browne (-225).

Top Play: 1/2 Star Travis Browne (-225) or better value Browne wins inside the distance (-170)

Jeremy Stephens (-225) vs. Yves Edwards (+190)  (Late news Stephens was in Jail last night be careful on this one)

Jeremy Stephens has some solid boxing and power in his hands.  Stephens should be able to land some big punches and control the clinch and out grapple Edwards.  Look for Stephens to win this fight by a late TKO/KO or take this on points.  Take Jeremy Stephens (-225)

Top Play: 2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-225)

Michael Johnson (-165) vs. Danny Castillo (+145)

Both fighters are well improved over the last 2 years.  Both have wrestling bases and solid striking.  Johnson probably holds the advantage in the striking slightly but look for Castillo to control the grappling and take this one by a close decision.  Take Danny Castillo (+145) and the Over 2.5 Rds. (-165)

Top Plays: 1/2 Star Danny Castillo (+145); 1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Michael Johnson vs Danny Castillo (-165)

Jacob Volkmann (-220) vs. Shane Roller (+180)

Both fighters have wrestling bases and solid grappling.  Neither one of these fighters are finishers and this fight has the recipe to go to decision.  Take the Over 2.5 Rds. Jacob Volkmann vs Shane Roller (-225)

Top Play: 2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Jacob Volkmann vs Shane Roller (-225)

Mike Pierce (-175) vs. Aaron Simpson (+160)

Mike Pierce has a well rounded game as does Aaron Simpson.  Both have wrestling backgrounds buy Pierce is a little better at nearly every aspect of MMA.  Look for Pierce to win the standup and the grappling battle in this fight and take it by decision.  Take Mike Pierce (-175).

Top Play: 2 Star Mike Pierce (-175)

UFC on FX 5 Top Play, Parlays and FAPs:

Top Plays:

1/2 Star Travis Browne (-225)

2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-225)

1/2 Star Danny Castillo (+145)

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Michael Johnson vs Danny Castillo (-165)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Jacob Volkmann vs Shane Roller (-225)

2 Star Mike Pierce (-175)

Top Parlay:

1 Star Jacob Volkmann; Jake Ellenberger

FAPs(Forced Action Plays)

Over 2.5 Rds. Mike Pierce vs Aaron Simpson (-210)

Bart Palaszewski (+175)

Under 2.5 Rds. Ellenberger vs Hieron (-105)

Under 2.5 Rds. Dodson vs Formiga (+170)

Predictions

Pierce UD

LeVesseur UD

Uyenoyama UD

Palaszewski UD

Volkmann UD

Castillo UD

Stephens 2^nd Rd TKO

Neer UD

Dodson 3rd Rd TKO

Ellenberger 2^nd Rd TKO

Browne 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC on Fuel TV 5: Great Night 3-1 Total on Top Plays and Parlay (2-0 on FAPs)

Stipe Mioci (-180) vs. Stefan Struve (+150) 5 RDS.

Mioci is an upcoming HW with power in his hands and a solid wrestling base.  Struve is a solid grappler with decent striking.  He probably will want to get this fight to the ground.  Mioci has some pretty solid takedown D and should keep this fight stand and drop Struve with punches.  Take Stipe Mioci (-180).

Top Play: 1 Star Stipe Mioci (-180)

Dan Hardy (-215) vs. Amir Sadollah (+180) 5 RDS.

Dan Hardy has solid striking and has been improving his grappling.  Amir Sadollah will struggle with Dan Hardy in the standup and will have to grapple to keep in the fight.  Dan Hardy should land some big punches and keep this fight standing possibly finishing Sadollah in the later rounds or taking a decision. Take Dan Hardy (-215)

Top Play: 2 Star Dan Hardy (-215)

John Hathaway (-260) vs. John Maguire (+220)

Hathaway is a well rounded fighter with solid technique in his striking.  Maguire is a strong grappler with above average standup.  Look for this fight to decision as neither one of these guys have dynamite in their hands and Hathaway has good enough grappling not to get subbed.  Take the over 2.5 Rds (-220)

Top Play: 2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. John Hathaway vs John Maguire (-220)

UFC on Fuel 5 Top Play, Parlays and FAPs:

Top Plays:

1 Star Stipe Mioci (-180)

2 Star Dan Hardy (-215)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. John Hathaway vs John Maguire (-220)

Top Parlay:

1 Star John Hathaway; Brad Pickett

FAPs (Forced Action Plays)

Under 2.5 Rds. Pickett vs Jabouin (+170)

Over 1.5 Rds. Ogle vs Corassani (-190)

Predictions

Stipe KO 2^nd

Dan Hardy 3rd Rd. TKO

Pickett Sub 2^nd

Sass Sub 2^nd

Hathaway UD

Mills 2^nd Rd TKO

Manuwa TKO 2^nd

Corassani UD

Tavares UD

Nelson Sub 1^st Rd

Young Split Dec.

UFC 152: 6-2 on Top Plays! Including 3 Dogs Cashing!

Jon Jones (-840) vs. Vitor Belfort (+660) 5 RDS. UFC LHW Championship

As much as I despise Jon Jones as a person he is a wonderful fighter and is rightfully the favorite.  I don’t think he should be this big of a favorite but I don’t see Vitor as a strong bet. Vitor’s only shot of winning this is landing a big punch and getting the KO or TKO.  Look for Jones to keep his distance from the Belfort blitzes and eventually land a takedown getting dominate position and raining down nasty ground and pound until the ref stops this contest.  Was thinking the prop bet by TKO/KO at -150 but I think it’s a little gamble b/c Jones could just as well Sub Vitor.  Unless you really want to gamble on Vitor getting that 1 punch KO, which I don’t think is a strong gamble considering how hard Jones is to hit.  Take Jon Jones Prop bet wins Inside Distance (-350).

Top Play: 2 Star Jon Jones Inside the Distance prop bet (-350)

Joseph Benavidez (-255) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+235) 5 RDS. UFC Flyweight Championship

Benavidez is a great fighter and well rounded, his only 2 losses are to Dominic Cruz.  Look for this fight to be close in the standup but  look for Benavidez to get multiple takedowns in the fight.  Benavidez should do enough to please the judges and take this by decision.  Take Joseph Benavidez prop bet by Decision (-130)

Top Play: 1 Star Joseph Benavidez by Decision prop bet (-130)

Michael Bisping (-185) vs. Brian Stann (+170)

Bisping has solid and technical boxing and an underrated ground game.  He has been know to shoot for a takedown or grapple if needed to, which shows he can adjust gameplans.  I don’t think he wants to stand and trade all day with Stann but look for Bisping to Clinch up push Stann against the cage and work for a takedown sometime in the fight.  Stann has to catch Bisping with a big punch and Bisping will look to counter punch.  Take Michael Bisping (-185).

Top Play: 1 Star Michael Bisping (-185)

Evan Dunham (-125) vs. TJ Grant (+115)

Two well rounded fighters with strong BJJ games and not too much dynamite in the hands.  Take the over 2.5 Rds. (-190).

Top Play: 2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Evan Dunham vs TJ Grant (-190)

Other Top Plays no write ups (Time Restrictions):

1/2 Star Simeon Thoresen (+115)

1/2 Star Mitch Gagnon (+170)

1/2 Star Vinicius Magalhaes (+135)

1/2 Star Sean Pierson (+200)

UFC 152 Top Play, Parlays:

Top Plays:

2 Star Jon Jones Inside the Distance prop bet (-350)

1 Star Joseph Benavidez by Decision prop bet (-130)

1 Star Michael Bisping (-185)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Evan Dunham vs TJ Grant (-190)

1/2 Star Simeon Thoresen (+115)

1/2 Star Mitch Gagnon (+170)

1/2 Star Vinicius Magalhaes (+135)

1/2 Star Sean Pierson (+200)

Top Parlays:

1 Star Charlie Brennaman; Matt Hamill; Joseph Benavidez

1 Star Jim Hettes; Over 1.5 Rds Gagnon vs Watson

Strikeforce Rousey vs Kaufman Recap: Top Parlays 2-0 and Top Play 1-0!

Ronda Rousey (-700) vs. Sarah Kaufman (+500) 5 RDS. Strikeforce Women’s Title

Rousey has excellent Judo and submission, especially her armbar. Kaufman has some solid striking but her weakness is her wrestling and ground game.  Look for Rousey to get this fight to the ground fairly quickly and lock in an armbar sometime late in the 1^st Rd or early 2^nd Rd.

Top Plays: 2 Star Ronda Rousey prop bet wins by Submission (-290)

Strikeforce Rousey vs Kaufman Top Play, Parlays and FAPs:

Top Play:

2 Star Ronda Rousey prop bet wins by Submission (-290)

Top Parlays:

2 Star: Ronda Rousey (-700); Ovince St. Preux (-700); Ronaldo Souza (-525)

1 Star: Adlan Amagov (-470); Meisha Tate (-470)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs):

Bobby Green (+110)

Roger Bowling (+245)

UFC 150 Recap:

UFC 150

Ben Henderson (-200) vs. Frankie Edgar (+170) UFC Lightweight Title Fight 5 RDS.

Henderson is a very well rounded fighter with a blackbelt in TKD, BJJ and is a solid wrestler.  Frankie Edgar has good boxing is quick on his feet and has solid wrestling.  We picked Henderson in the first fight and we are picking him again tonight.  He is just a little better than Frankie in nearly every aspect of MMA.  Look for Henderson to outpoint Frankie and win a decision or possibly a late finish.  Take Henderson -200. 

Top Plays: 1 Star Ben Henderson (-200)

Donald Cerrone (-370) vs. Melvin Guillard (+310)

Cerrone has solid kickboxing and submissions.  Guillard has tremendous KO power in his hands and is a vicious striker.  Guillard looked like he improved his submission defense and stuck to a gameplan in his last fight beating Camoes who is a submission specialist.  Cerrone does have solid submissions and this is a factor but he doesn’t have a wrestling background and usually doesn’t try to get the fight to the ground.  The line on this is crazy for Guillard to a dog this size.  These fighters should feel each other out the first minute to minute and half and this fight should go to the 3^rd round.  Take Guillard (+310) and the over 1.5 Rds. -145. 

Top Plays:  1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Cerrone vs Guillard (-145); 1 Star Melvin Guillard (+310)

Yushin Okami (-600) vs. Buddy Roberts (+450)

Okami might be a little gunshy in this fight and he will look to push Roberts against the cage and take him down.  Roberts is a well rounded fighter and his ground game is solid enough not to get finished by Okami.  Take the Over 2.5 Rds (-125).

Top Play: 1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Okami vs Roberts (-125)

Jake Shields (-155) vs. Ed Herman (+135)

Shields is a wonderful grappler with great submissions and improved standup. Herman has some power in his hands and is a solid grappler, but has struggled with other grapplers who have been able to shutdown his submissions.  Look for Jake Shields to wear down Herman with some takedowns and get a submission or possibly gut out a decision.  Take Jake Shields (-155)

Top Play: 2 Star Jake Shields (-155)

Max Holloway (-140) vs. Justin Lawrence (+120)

Holloway has solid boxing and kicks and is improving his grappling but it still isn’t solid. Lawrence has some real knockout power in his hands and is coming off a KO head kick victory.  Look for Lawrence to land some big strikes and hurt Holloway and eventually put him away with a TKO or KO, if Lawrence is threatened in the standup he is the better grappler and has an underrated ground game.  Take Justin Lawrence (+120).

Top Play: 4 Star Justin Lawrence (+120)

UFC 150 Top Plays:

Top Plays:

4 Star Justin Lawrence (+120)

2 Star Jake Shields (-155)

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Okami vs Roberts (-125)

1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Cerrone vs Guillard (-145)

1 Star Melvin Guillard (+310)

1 Star Ben Henderson (-200)

UFC on Fox 4 Recap: 2-0 on Top Plays and Hit our 3 Star Parlay

Mauricio Shogun Rua (-380) vs. Brandon Vera (+300) 5 RDS.

Shogun is a murderer and has elite muay thai, his wrestling has improved after getting demolished by Jones.  Vera has some pretty decent muay thai himself but is not on the level of Shogun.  Vera also has problems with his cardio and won’t be able to handle Shogun’s blitzes of powerful strikes.  Look for Shogun to hurt Vera in the 2^nd Rd with a looping punch and then finishing Vera on the ground with Hammer Fists until the ref stops the fight.  Take Shogun by TKO/KO -170.

Top Plays: 3 Star Shogun Rua Prop Bet by TKO/KO -170 (or your book might have an inside the distance prop with close odds)

Mike Swick (-215) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+180)

Mike Swick had a long layoff and this should be the welcome back fight to get him on track.  Swick has some strong striking and a decent grappling game.  At this point I don’t know what Johnson is still doing in the UFC, he has some ok power in his hands but his ground game is pretty piss poor.  Swick should control this fight in the standup and if this fight goes to the ground he has a good shot of subbing Johnson.  Take Mike Swick (-215)

Top Play:  2 Star Mike Swick (-215)

UFC on Fox 4 Top Plays, Parlays and FAPs:

Top Plays:

3 Star Shogun Rua by TKO/KO (-170)

2 Star Mike Swick (-215)

Top Parlay:

3 Star: Shogun Rua (-380); Lyoto Machida (-290)=

Forced Action Plays (FAPs):

Joe Lauzon (-105)

Over 2.5 Rds. Grispi vs Yahya (+155)

Manvel Gamburyan (-165)

Over 2.5 Rds. Omigawa vs. Gamburyan (-270)

Under 3.5 Rds. Shogun vs. Vera (-280)

UFC 149 Recap

Renan Barao (-180) vs. Urijah Faber (+155) 5 RDS. Bantamweight Championship

Barao is an explosive striker with a very strong BJJ game. Faber is a solid all around fighter with some strong wrestling.  Barao has some solid boxing and muay thai, he uses his footwork, speed and strikes to stay away from takedowns.  Look for Barao to pick Faber apart in the stand up and if he hurts Faber he could possibly submit him.  This fight should go later rounds with and possibly a decision.  Take Barao (-190)

Top Plays: 2 Star Renan Barao (-180)

Hector Lombard (-380) vs. Tim Boetsch (+315)

Welcome to the UFC Hector Lombard! Lombard is a well rounded fighter with vicious striking and is a 4^th degree black belt in judo.  Boetsch has some solid wrestling and above average striking.  Look for Lombard to blitz Boetsch and hurt him with strikes many times in this fight probably finishing Boetsch sometime in the 2^nd or 3^rd Rd by TKO/KO.  Take Lombard (-380)

Top Plays:  3 Star Hector Lombard (-380); 2 Star Hector Lombard by TKO/KO (-140)

Shawn Jordan (-120) vs. Cheick Kongo (+100)

Jordan keeps improving and has some pretty solid wrestling and stand up.  Cheick Kongo has some solid striking but is not much of a grappler.  Look for Jordan to come in with a gameplan and look to grind Kongo against the cage and work for takedowns.  Jordan should win this fight by a TKO or possible decision.  Take Shawn Jordan.

Top Play:  1 Star Shawn Jordan (-120)

Brian Ebersole (-400) vs. James Head (+325)

Ebersole is a very well rounded fighter with a very strong grappling game.  Ebersole shold be able to outpoint Head in the standup and take Head down and displaying his strong ground and pound.  Look for Ebersole to win this by TKO or possibly decision.  Take Ebersole (-400).

Top Play:  4 Star Brian Ebersole (-400)

Court McGee (-120) vs. Nick Ring (+100)

McGee has some pretty solid boxing and wrestling.  Nick Ring is a strong grappler with some decent striking.  Look for McGee to outpoint Ring possibly getting a takedown in the fight on his way to a decision victory.  Take McGee (-120) and prop bet Fight goes to Decision.

Top Plays:  2 Star Court McGee (-120) and Prop bet Fight goes to Decision

UFC 149 Top Plays and Parlay:

Top Plays:

2 Star Renan Barao (-180)

3 Star Hector Lombard (-380); 2 Star Hector Lombard by TKO/KO (-140)

1 Star Shawn Jordan (-120)

4 Star Brian Ebersole (-400)

2 Star Court McGee (-120) and Prop bet Fight goes to Decision

Top Parlay:

1 Star: Daniel Pineda (-240); Brian Ebersole (-400); Hector Lombard (-380)

Forced Action Plays (for Action Junkies):

Chris Clements (+120)

Renan Barao by Decision Prop (+223)

Shawn Jordan by Decision Prop (+520)

Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Kennedy Recap: 3-0 on Top Plays and hit our Top Parlay

Great night as we cleaned house and went 3-0 on Top Plays and hit our Top Parlay.  Not many plays on this card but they were plus money and they hit!  Here is the write up paying members received.

Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Kennedy:

Luke Rockhold (-380) vs. Tim Kennedy (+290) 5 RDS. Championship

Rockhold is the champion in Strikeforce and rightfully so, he has ever improving standup and a wonderful BJJ game.  Tim Kennedy is very well rounded and should make this an interesting fight.  Rockhold should win nearly every round and control this fight in the standup slowly picking apart Kennedy on his way to a decision victory.  Take Luke Rockhold by decision (+110) and/or lay (-380) if you have to, Rockhold is not losing this fight.

Top Plays: 3 Star Luke Rockhold (-380) and prop Bet Rockhold by decision (+110)

Tyron Woodley (-110) vs. Nate Marquardt (+100)

Woodly is a strong wrestler who looks to take down and blanket his opponents.  Marquardt is a well rounded fighter who will look to keep this fight standing and blast away at Woodley.  Woodley doesn’t have the best cardio and look for Marquardt to get a 4^th or 5^th Rd. TKO as Woodley fades.  Take Nate Marquardt (+100)

Top Play:  2 Star Nate Marquardt (+100)

Strikeforce Top Plays and Parlay:

Top Plays:

3 Star Luke Rockhold (-380) and prop Bet Rockhold by decision (+110)

2 Star Nate Marquardt (+100)

Top Parlay:

1 Star: Jorge Masvidal (-190); Jordan Mein (-165)= (+145)

UFC Fuel 4 Recap: 5-1 and Hit 5 Fighter Parlay!

Great night as we had a really good feeling on a lot of these fights and wish we would have got a little bit better money as these lines opened way off in our opinion.  Octagon Locks felt strong about 5 fighters and we gambled on the 5 team fighter and hit a +475 parlay!  Here is the write up below that members received.

UFC Fuel 4 Top Plays, Parlays:

Chris Weidman (-140) vs. Mark Munoz (+130) 5 RDS.

Weidman is an outstanding grappler/wrestler with some solid rangy standup.  Mark Munoz is a powerful wrestler with strong ground and pound.  Look for Weidman to takedown and control Munoz in possibly much of this fight.  Weidman could possibly finish with a submission or TKO Munoz in the later rounds. Take Weidman.

Top Plays: 3 Star Chris Weidman (-140)

Rafael Dos Anjos (-190) vs. Anthony Njokuani (+175)

Dos Anjos has solid standup and employs a strong BJJ game.  Njokuani is known for his kickboxing style standup but has improved his submission defense.  Dos Anjos should get in close and try to outbox Njokuani and work for takedowns. If he is able to do so he should pick up the decision victory.  Take Dos Anjos and the Over 2.5 Rds.

Top Play:  3 Star Rafael Dos Anjos (-190); 3 Star Over 2.5 Rds Dos Anjos vs Njokuani (+110)

Francis Carmont (-200) vs. Karlos Vemola (+170)

Carmont is a rising star with a well versed game.  Vemola is a good grappler with some stiff standup with decent power. Carmont is out of Tri Star gym and trains regularly with GSP. Look for Carmont to dominate this fight and finish Vemola late in the fight.  Take Carmont.

Top Play:  4 Star Francis Carmont (-200)

Damacio Page (-120) vs. Alex Caceres (+100)

Page is an aggressive fighter with a pretty well rounded game.  Caceres is ever improving and is pretty well rounded.  Page will probably take advantage of Caceres poor takedown defense and get this past the 1.5 Rd mark.  Take the Over 1.5 Rds (-170)

Top Play:  2 Star Over 1.5 Rds Page vs Caceres (-170)

Rapahel Assuncao (-185) vs. Issei Tamura (+160)

Short write up (Time Restraints) Assuncao is better in the standup and grappling. He should dominate this fight in all aspects of the fight.  Don’t be scared of the money unload!

Top Play:  4 Star Rapahel Assuncao (-185)

UFC Fuel 4 Top Plays and Parlay:

Top Plays:

3 Star Chris Weidman (-140)

3 Star Rafael Dos Anjos (-190)

3 Star Over 2.5 Rds Dos Anjos vs Njokuani (+110)

4 Star Francis Carmont (-200)

2 Star Over 1.5 Rds Page vs Caceres (-170)

4 Star Rapahel Assuncao (-185)

Top Parlay:

1 Star: Assuncao (-185); Carmont (-200); Dos Anjos (-190); Cariaso (-325); Tehuna (-380)= +475

UFC 148 Recap

Crazy night of fights with some Kim hurting his rib on the takedown and Chael throwing the worst spinning backfist ever to set himself up to get finished.  Plays for UFC Fuel 4 are on sale we have some strong plays on this card!

Anderson Silva (-270) vs. Chael Sonnen (+230) 5 RD. UFC Middleweight Title Fight

If you saw the first fight Chael dominated the fight only to get caught in a late triangle.  People think Chael got worse since he last fought Andy, but Bispings improved takedown defense made people believe that. Chael should have improved with his new BJJ training and ability to sink in a submission.  Anderson is Anderson we don’t have to tell you about him, but he should struggle with his timing in the standup.  Look for Chael to do what he did in the first fight, we don’t buy it about Anderson “hurt rib.” Take the Over 2.5 Rds -160 and Sonnen (+230).

Top Plays: 2 Star Over 2.5 Rds Silva vs Sonnen (-160); 2 Star Chael Sonnen (+230)

 Forrest Griffin (-290) vs. Tito Ortiz (+245)

Some of you hardcore fans out there might get a stiffy from this match up.  This should be a close fight and we believe Tito will make the fight closer than his money line suggests.  Both previous fights went to decision and we don’t see this one happening any different.  Take the prop bet this fight will go to a Decision (-195) or over 2.5 Rds (-240).

Top Play:  4 Star Fight goes to Decision (-195) or Over 2.5 Rds Griffin vs Ortiz (-240)

Patrick Cote (-220) vs. Cung Le (+180)

Strikers delight here and welcome back Cote.  Patrick Cote has good power in his hands, well rounded and a granite chin.  Cung Le is an exciting striker/kickboxer with a decent grappling game.  Cung Le’s chin isn’t too strong, look for Cote’s straight punches to find a home on Cung Le’s chin eventually dropping him sometime in the 2^nd round.  Take Cote (-220)

Top Play:  2 Star Patrick Cote (-220)

Dong Hyun Kim (-150) vs. Demaian Maia (+130)

Kim is a 3^rd degree black belt in Judo and has improved his striking.  Maia is a submission/BJJ specialist with some improved stand up also.  Kim should control this fight in the standup and keep from getting takedown by Maia.  Maia seemed to forget his bread and butter which is his BJJ and now seems to strike more with his opponents.  Look for Kim to take this fight on points.  Take Dong Hyun Kim (-150)

Top Play:  3 Star Dong Hyun Kim (-150)

Constantinos Philippou (-185) vs. Riki Fukuda (+160)

Philippou has some ferocious striking and improved takedown defense.  Fukuda is a well rounded fighter with strong wrestling and clinch work.  Look for Philippou to stuff the takedowns and win this fight in the standup, possibly getting a late TKO/KO or winning this on points.  Take Constantinos Philippou (-185)

Top Play:  1 Star Constantinos Philippou (-185)

UFC 148 Top Plays and FAPs:

Top Plays:

2 Star Chael Sonnen (+230)

2 Star Over 2.5 Rds Silva vs Sonnen (-160)

4 Star Griffin vs Ortiz Prop Fight Goes to Decision (-195) or Over 2.5 Rds. (-240)

2 Star Patrick Cote (-220)

3 Star Dong Hyun Kim (-150)

1 Star Constantinos Philippou (-185)

Top Parlay:

1 Star Over 2.5 Griffin vs. Ortiz (-240); Over 2.5 Kim vs Maia (-225)= +105 

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):

Rafaello Oliveira (+165)

John Alessio (+160)

Ivan Menjivar (Even)

Gleison Tibau (-175)

UFC 147 Recap:

Ok night as we went 1-1 on Top Plays, but both Top Plays were +130.  So if you played them both you ended up cashing some!  This card had a lot of Brazilian TUF fighters that we didn't know much about and didn't have much video on so we didn't want to force the action.  Here is the brief write up below that our paying members received.

Rich Franklin (-155) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+135)

The first fight was pretty exciting with many good exchanges.  This is a 5rd fight and Wanderlei usually likes to start fast but the fact it is 5rds should slow his pace the first couple rounds, Franklin has a solid chin and will look to counter strike Silva.  This one should go to the 4rd or  maybe even as late as the 5^th Rd. Take the Over 2.5 Rds +130

Top Play: 1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Franklin vs. Silva (+130)

 Fabricio Werdum(-525) vs. Mike Russow (+415)

Werdum has improved standup and slick BJJ.  Russow is a solid wrestler and grappler.  Werdum could possibly get the submission in this one but Russow’s grappling should be good enough to keep that from happening. This fight should be closer than the line and will probably go to decision.  Take the over 2.5 Rds +130

Top Play:  1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Werdum vs. Russow (+130)

UFC 147 Top Plays and FAPs:

Top Plays:

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Franklin vs. Silva (+130)

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Werdum vs. Russow (+130)

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):

Rich Franklin (-150)

Mike Russow (+415)