Tuesday, October 29, 2013

UFC Fight Night 30 we Cash Again

Lyoto Machida (-380) vs. Mark Munoz (+315) 5 Rds.
Machida is a wonderful counter striker with solid grappling and takedown defense.  Munoz has a solid wrestling base with pretty good striking.  Machida should be able to keep this fight standing and pick his spots.  Munoz throws many wild punches and will have to take chances to be competitive in this fight.  Machida should catch Munoz with a counter flurry and put him away sometime in the 3rd Rd.

Top Play
:  1 Star Prop Bet Lyoto Machida wins Inside the Distance (-105)

Top Plays:
1 Star Al Iaquinta (-140)- Iaquinta is a solid wrestler and boxer with power in his hands.  He continues to improve his grappling and BJJ.  Hallmann is pretty well rounded, but look for Iaquinta to land the bigger shots on his way to a decision victory or late TKO.

1 Star Andrew Craig (-175)- Craig is well rounded and has the ability to finish fights.  His opponent Barnatt is lanky with a slight reach advantage.  Craig has more ways to win this fight as he has more power and better wrestling.  Craig could land big strikes and win by TKO or use his wrestling to win on points.

½ Star Andy Ogle (+165)- Ogle is a solid boxer with underrated wrestling/grappling.  He has the advantage on the feet vs Cole Miller.  Cole Miller’s strength is his BJJ and submissions, but Ogle has shown strong grappling and submission D.  Miller could get the submission but his takedowns aren’t very good so I don’t see him getting a dominant position in the grappling unless he reverses or sweeps Ogle.  Ogle could even get top position with his superior wrestling, but I think he uses his Defensive wrestling to keep this standing and outpoint Miller.  Ogle should win this by Decision.

Top Parlays:
1 Star Lyoto Machida; John Lineker (-155)

½ Star WSOF Parlay: Josh Burkman; Marlon Moraes; Jon Fitch; Justin Gaethje (+150)

Machida 3rd Rd TKO
Guillard 2nd Rd TKO
Manuwa 2nd Rd TKO
Parke UD
Sakara 2nd Rd TKO
Lineker 2nd Rd TKO
Iaquinta UD
Craig UD
Andrade UD
Ogle UD
Hettes 2nd Rd Sub
Kuiper 2nd Rd

UFC 166 4-0

Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+170) 5 Rds. UFC Heavyweight Title Match
This is a tough fight to call and I am going to not Top Play anything on here.  I am leaning Cain to win by UD or late TKO.  This fight just has too many question marks for me, but there is no way I could take JDS after watching him get beat down for 5 Rds in their last fight. 

Top Play:  No Top Play

Top Plays:
1 Star Prop Bet Melendez vs. Sanchez goes 3 Round Distance (-215)- Both of these fighters are extremely hard to finish and this should be more competitive than the line indicates.  Between both these guys Diego was only finished once in the 5th Rd by BJ Penn.  I almost sprinkled a little on Diego because he is at +450, but I decided not too as Gilbert should out point Diego.  This fight is going to decision.

½ Star Gabriel Gonzaga (+160)- Gonzaga has power in his hands and a solid grappling/submission game.  His chin is questionable and Jordan packs power, but it seems like Gonzaga has improved his striking and striking defense.  I think this fight should be a coin flip so let’s play the dog with the better ground game.

½ Star KJ Noons (-160)- KJ Noons is a very good boxer with power in his hands.  His opponent Sotiropoulos is a very solid grappler with average standup.  Noons should be able to defend takedowns and find Sotriropoulos’s chin and finish this fight by TKO.

Top Parlay:
1 Star John Dodson; Tim Boetsch (+105)

Velasquez 4th Rd TKO
Cormier UD
Melendez UD
Gonzaga 2nd Rd Sub
Dodson 2nd Rd TKO
Boetsch UD
Lombard 2nd Rd TKO
Kaufman UD
Noons 2nd Rd TKO
Amagov 2nd Rd TKO
Ferguson UD
Fili 3rd Rd TKO
Horiguchi UD

Bellator 104 1-0 Cashing in on a 2 Star +150

Top Play:  

2 Star Paul Bradley (+150)- Bradley has a NCAA Division I wrestling background from Iowa and is a well rounded MMA fighter.  His opponent Amoussou can finish fights with his submissions and has some power in his hands, but Amoussou has suspect takedown D.  Amoussou couldn’t stop Askren’s takedowns which is no surprise as Askren is a former Olympic wrestler.  Amoussou also was taken down by David Rickels and controlled on the ground.  I really think Bradley should be the favorite as he is a tough grinder who is a bad matchup for Amoussou.  Bradley should be able to land multiple takedowns and take this by Decision.

UFC Fight Night 29

Demain Maia (-280) vs. Jake Shields (+255) 5 Rds.
Demian Maia has great BJJ and has improved his standup over the years.  Jake Shields is a strong wrestler and grappler who applies constant pressure.  Both of these guys don’t have much power in their hands (especially Shields).  Jake Shields has surprised many people by somehow finding a way to win fights even if he has to by volume striking.  Maia might have a hard time getting Shields to the ground and Shields could land some takedowns and hold top position.  Maia has never fought 5 Rds at 170 lbs so if this goes late rounds he could possibly gas.  I do think this fight will be a close decision.  Lets take the Over 4.5 and small on Jake Shields.

Top Plays:  1 Star Over 4.5 Rds Maia vs Shields (-120); ½ Star Jake Shields (+255)

Top Plays:
1.5 Star Iliarde Santos (-140)- Santos is a well rounded fighter with power in his hands and solid BJJ.  I see him being able to finish this fight by TKO or win by Decision.  Even if this is a close decision the Brazilian judges usually swing the scores in favor of the Brazilian.

Top Parlay:
1 Star Thiago Silva; Mike Pierce (-120)

Maia Split Decision
Erick Silva 2nd Rd TKO
Thiago Silva 2nd Rd TKO
Maldonaldo UD
Pierce 3rd Rd TKO
Dillashaw UD
Alcantara UD
Cabral UD
Santos UD
Patrick UD

Monday, October 7, 2013

Link below to Purchas my Top Plays for MMA Events

All of my MMA Top Plays are available at http://www.premiumsportsplays.com

Bellator 101 Top Play 1-0

Saad Awad (-175) vs. Martin Stapleton (+165)
Awad is a dangerous striker with heavy hands and pretty solid grappling.  His opponent Stapleton has fought in Europe against lesser competition.  This line opened with Awad as a -280 favorite.  I see Awad being able to do damage in the striking and hurt Stapleton and maybe finish him by TKO or win on points.  Stapleton will be outclassed in the striking and the grappling should be close, but I see Awad being able to defend takedowns effectively enough not to lose this on points.  I agree with Vegas and think Awad should be a bigger favorite.  I would say lets go 2 Stars on this but we have been cold in MMA lately so lets just be conservative and go with 1 Star.

Top Play:  1 Star Saad Awad (-175)

UFC 165 Top Plays and Predictions

Jon Jones (-900) Alexander Gustafsson (+600) 5 Rds. Lightheavyweight Championship

Jon Jones is arguably the best fighter in MMA today.  Gustafsson is a solid boxer and well rounded but he will struggle with Jones’s wrestling.  If Jones gets Gustafsson on the ground he could finish him by submission or possibly TKO him.  Jon Jones should finish Gustafsson sometime in the 2nd or 3rd round. Almost played Jon Jones by Submission at + money but figured we would just take him inside the distance.

Top Play
:  2 Star Prop Bet Jon Jones wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Costa Philippou (-150)- Philippou is a dangerous striker with solid takedown defense.  Carmont will look to limit exchanges and setup takedowns.  Philippou is the better striker and should be able to defend Carmont’s takedowns and win by decision or TKO in the late stages of the fight.

½ Star Mitch Gagnon (+150)- Gagnon is a solid grappler with good submissions and improved striking.  Kimura has some slick submissions and is pretty well rounded.  I see Gagnon out striking Kimura and hurting him then submitting him or possibly winning on points.  Mitch Gagnon should take this in his home country.

Jones 3rd Rd Sub
Barao UD
Mitrione 2nd Rd TKO
Philippou 3rd Rd TKO
Nurmagomedov UD
Jury UD
Menjivar 2nd Rd TKO
Thompson 2nd Rd TKO
Gagnon 2nd Rd Sub
Makdessi UD
Prazeres UD
Caceres UD
Omielanczuk 2nd Rd Sub