Sunday, December 16, 2012

TUF Finale 16 Top Plays/Parlay 3-1

Top Plays: 
Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Matt Mitrione (+220)
Nelson has a great chin and some power in his hands also an underrated ground game.  Mitrione has above average boxing and a decent grappling game.  Nelson is rightfully the favorite and should win this fight probably sometime in the 3rd or 4th round with a TKO.  If you would like to bet Nelson straight I don’t see any reason not to but we have a parlay on him but Take the Over 1.5 Rds. (-185).

Top Play:  1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Nelson vs Mitrione (-185)

Top Plays with Short Write Ups Due to Time Restraints
3 Star Dustin Poirier (-250)- Poirier has better stand up, grappling and is more athletic than Brookins; Poirier should have the advantage anywhere this fight goes

1 Star Mike Pyle (-150)- This like opened around Pyle (-285); Public money went on Head who is improving but Pyle should outpoint Head in this one and possibly get the TKO.

Top Parlay
1 Star Roy Nelson; Dustin Poirier= (-105)

Forced Action Plays
Mike Ricci (-220)
Over 1.5 Rds. Waldburger vs Catone (-105)
Marcos Vinicius (+210)

Predictions
Nelson 4th Rd TKO
Ricci UD
Del Rosairo 1st Rd Sub
Poirier 2nd Rd Sub
Pyle UD
Vinicius 3rd Rd Sub
Pichel 2nd Rd TKO
Waldburger 3rd Rd Sub

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