UFC Fox 3 Recap

Nate Diaz looked amazing, continues to improve and is the first fighter to finish Jim Miller in his 25 fight career!  Diaz will most likely get the winner for Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II.  This was a crazy card in which nearly every underdog won vs the favorite.  The only favorites to win off this card were Hathaway, Bermudez (nearly even) and Hendricks (slight favorite). Octagon Locks delivered 10 Top Plays to paying members with a 6 and 4 record.  It was crazy how some of the fights panned out as Lineker was winning the fight and got caught in a late 2nd Rd. guillotine; Palhares looked to have a heel hook but Belcher slipped out and got some GNP until the ref stopped it.  That is how MMA goes sometimes, luck isn't always on our side.  We are still fairly happy as we picked two dogs on the main card which cashed, Nate Diaz +190 and Lavar Johnson +165.  Stay tuned for the next event and we may have a Top Plays Package on Bellator 68.

UFC Fox 3:  Diaz vs Miller Top Plays and Parlays:

Jim Miller (-230) vs. Nate Diaz (+190) **5 Round Main Event**

Interesting fight here between a grinding wrestler with strong BJJ in Miller and Diaz who is a boxing technician with a Cesar Gracie Black Belt.  We think this fight could go either way and believe the line should be near even.  This is the best Nate Diaz we have seen in the UFC and he will look to stay on the outside and pepper Miller with shots.  Miller will look to close the gap and land takedowns to try to surf out a decision.  This one could go either way and Nate Diaz at +190 is hard to pass up.  Both fighters have iron chins and BJJ should cancel out the instance of a submission.  Take Nate Diaz and the over 4.5 Rds.

Top Plays:  1 Star Nate Diaz (+190); 3 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Miller vs. Diaz (-180)

Johny Hendricks (-140) vs. Josh Koscheck (+120)

This is a hard one to call between two strong wrestlers.  Hendricks probably has the slight advantage in the standup, but this one should get to decision.

Top Play:  2 Star Over 2.5 Hendricks vs. Koscheck (-185)

Rousimar Palhares (-245) vs. Alan Belcher (+205)

Palhares looks to be a man on a mission to climb the UFC ladder.  Belcher is a more technical striker, but he won’t be able to open up his striking unless he wants to end up on his back.  Look for Palhares to get this fight to the ground and soften up Belcher with some GNP before sinking in a submission sometime in the 2^nd frame.  Take Palhares (-245) and the under 2.5 Rds. (-185).

Top Plays:  4 Star Rousimar Palhares (-245); 1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Palhares vs. Belcher (-185)

Pat Barry (-190) vs. Lavar Johnson (+165)

Two heavy handed heavyweights who like to strike going at it here.  Johnson should use his reach to land some big punches on Barry, potentially dropping Barry.  This line should be closer to even and expect this fight to end in the 1^st or early 2^nd Rd. 

Top Play:  1 Star Lavar Johnson (+165); 2 Star Under 1.5 Rds Barry vs. Johnson (-145)

Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+230)

TUF Winner Tony Ferguson has some dangerous power and technical boxing skills.  Michael Johnson has pretty strong wrestling and decent standup.  Michael Johnson’s best chance of winning is to get this fight to the ground and trying to surf out a decision.  The problem is Tony Ferguson is a good wrestler himself with solid takedown defense.  Tony Ferguson will keep this fight standing landing big strikes and eventually finish Michael Johnson in the 2^nd round.

Top Play:  3 Star Tony Ferguson (-270)

John Lineker (-280) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+240)

Lineker uses an aggressive Muay Thai Style attack that Louis Gaudinot will not be able to handle.  Look for Lineker to hurt Gaudinot many times this fight with flurries of punches. Lineker should dominate this fight and look for the refree to jump in and stop this one early. 

Top Play:  4 Star John Lineker (-280)

Dennis Bermudez (-130) vs. Pablo Garza (+110)

Bermudez has solid wrestling, aggressive/powerful standup and a strong chin.  Pablo Garza will not be able to compete with Bermudez’s stand up.  Bermudez should get in and out of the pocket landing nice combos.  Garza’s only chance for the win is a lucky submission.  Bermudez has been known to get caught in submissions, but not this time.  Bermudez lands a big right dropping Pablo and finishes the fight with GNP.

Top Play:  2 Star Dennis Bermudez (-140)

UFC Fox 3 Top Plays and Parlays:

Top Plays:

1 Star Nate Diaz (+190)

3 Star Over 4.5 Rds. Miller vs. Diaz (-180)

2 Star Over 2.5 Hendricks vs. Koscheck (-185)

4 Star Rousimar Palhares (-245)

1 Star Under 2.5 Rds. Palhares vs. Belcher (-185)

1 Star Lavar Johnson (+165)

2 Star Under 1.5 Rds Barry vs. Johnson (-145)

4 Star John Lineker (-280)

3 Star Tony Ferguson (-270)

2 Star Dennis Bermudez (-140)

Top Parlays:

2 Star: Denis (-290); Lineker (-280); Hathaway vs. Krauss over 2.5 (-250); John Dodson(-500)=  (+206)

1 Star: Dodson (-500); Lineker (-280)= (-163)