Monday, March 25, 2013

UFC 158 Top Plays and Parlay

George St. Pierre (-525) vs. Nick Diaz (+450) 5 Rds Welterweight Title
GSP is very athletic, well rounded with some of the best takedowns and top control in MMA.  Nick Diaz has great cardio, granite chin, boxing and BJJ.  Diaz will try to make this a brawl as he will try to hunt down GSP throwing combinations.  GSP will look to mix in takedowns with his strikres and limit exchanges in the pocket.  GSP will only win this fight by decision.  If Diaz wins this fight it will be by Sub or TKO.  It is highly unlikely GSP finishes Diaz.  My prediction is GSP by UD but with this line being at -525, there is no value on GSP unless you parlay him or take him by decision.  I know you guys want a play for this fight so either take GSP by UD at -230 ish or if you want to gamble and throw a little on Nick Diaz at +450.     

Top Plays:  Take your choice: (never done this but I am not in love with either bet) GSP by Dec -230 or Diaz +450 Note: Might as well count this as a FAP because I can’t count this towards my overall record

Top Plays:
1/2 Star Carlos Condit (+120)- Condit has the longer reach and should stay on the outside with his Muay Thai..If it hits the ground Condit has been able reverse position with his BJJ in the past…Close fight here but lets put a little on the dog

1 Star Nate Marquardt (+150)- Ellenberger has been known to gas in the later rounds.  Marquardt is a more technical fighter and should take this by a late finish or possibly Decision

2 Star Darren Elkins (-200)- Elkins is a solid wrestler and grappler.  Look for him to take this fight to the ground multiple times on his way to a decision victory.

Top Parlay
1 Star Rick Story; Mike Ricci: TJ Dillashaw (-110)

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):
George Roop +125
Under 2.5 Rds Dillashaw vs Tamura (+140)

Predictions:
GSP UD
Condit UD
Marquardt 3rd TKO
Camozzi UD
Ricci UD
Cote UD
Elkins UD
Mein UD
Cruickshank UD
Story UD
Dillashaw 2nd Rd. Sub
Roop 2nd Rd TKO

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