Monday, June 24, 2013
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UFC 161 Results
Rashad Evans (-155) vs. Dan Henderson (+145)
Evans is a solid wrestler and a great athlete. Henderson is a solid wrestler with power in his hands especially his right. This is a close fight and Rashad needs to use his wrestling to win this fight and Henderson needs to keep it standing and win the clinch battle. Henderson’s defensive wrestling has struggled in the past and Rashad has looked average in the striking department lately. This is a hard fight to call and I think this is near a coin flip. I am going to go with Dan Henderson by 2nd Rd TKO.
Top Play: 1/2 Star Dan Henderson (+145)
Top Play:
1/2 Star Jake Shields (+190)- Shields is a wonderful grappler, has strong takedowns and a high fighter IQ. Woodley is a more explosive striker with solid wrestling. Woodley doesn’t have the best defensive wrestling and Shields could get this fight to the ground and look for a submission or score points from top position. This fight should be closer to even in my opinion, take Jake Shields (+190).
Top Parlay
1 Star Roy Nelson; Alexis Davis (-140)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Roy Nelson Prop inside the distance (-120)
Shawn Jordan (+125)
Predictions:
Henderson 2nd Rd TKO
Nelson 2nd Rd TKO
Jimmo UD
Davis UD
Jordan 2nd Rd Sub
Shields UD
Stout UD
Pierson UD
Delorme 3rd Rd Sub
Maguire UD
Jabouin 2nd Rd TKO
Sunday, June 9, 2013
UFC on Fuel 10 Top Plays and Top Parlays go 5-1 & Profit 3 Units/Stars
Fabricio Werdum (-300) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+250) 5 Rds. Werdum has a very strong grappling, BJJ game and his striking continues to improve. Nogueira is a great grappler and has solid boxing, but he is getting older and look for his chin to get tested in this one. Werdum takes this fight with his superior standup and TKOs Noguiera sometime in the 2nd Rd.
Top Play: 1 Star Prop bet Fabricio Werdum wins Inside the Distance (-140)
Top Plays:
1/2 Star Prop Bet Fight won’t go the Distance Macario vs Santos (-105)- Macario is a dangerous striker and finishes most of his fights with his punching power. Santos is a strong grappler who wins many fights by submission. I see either fighter being able to finish this fight. Take the under 2.5 if you aren’t able to prop bet the fight won’t go the distance.
1 Star Erick Silva Prop wins Inside the Distance (-190)- Erick Silva is a finisher with explosive striking and a sick submission game. I believe Erick Silva probably finishes this fight by TKO/KO but he could very easily lock in a submission if he hurts High. I was thinking of going Silva by TKO/KO prop at +115 but decided to play it safe and take Silva to win Inside the Distance.
½ Star Godofredo “Pepey” Castro (+190)- Castro is developing his striking game and is a very strong grappler with slick submissions. Look for Castro to out strike and out grapple Arantes on his way to a decision victory.This line should be closer to even.
Top Parlays
1 Star Erick Silva; Raphael Assuncao (-160)
1 Star Antonio Neto; Over 2.5 Rds Damm vs. Hiota (+125)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
William Macario (+180)
Karlos Vemola (-120)
Predictions:
Werdum 2nd Rd TKO
Macario 2nd Rd TKO
Calvacante 2nd Rd TKO
Sarafian 2nd Rd Sub
Silva 1st Rd TKO
Bezerra 3rd Rd TKO
Assuncao UD
Castro UD
Alcantara 2nd Rd Sub
Hirota UD
Vemola UD
Neto 1st Rd Sub
Saturday, June 1, 2013
UFC 160: We Cash again! Top Plays and Parlays Profit 1.2 Units
Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550) 5 Rds. For the HW
Championship
Cain
is a well rounded and athletic HW. His
ability to mix his striking with his wrestling befuddles his opponents. Antonio Silva is outclassed in every aspect
of MMA vs Cain. Cain could win this
fight with his standup or take this to the ground and pummel Silva. Look for Cain Velasquez to finish Antonio
Silva in the 2nd rd via TKO/KO.
Top Play: 2 Star Prop bet Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO -250
Top Plays:
1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt (-140)- Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers but both also have great chins. I am predicting Junior Dos Santos to win this by decision and almost top played the prop Dos Santos by Dec. (+240) but I figured this is the safer play. If Mark Hunt gasses in the later rounds Dos Santos could possibly finish the fight.
½ Star Mark Hunt (+380) Mark Hunt has been on a roll, he is a great striker with tons of power. Hunt has been known to gas and Dos Santos is the big favorite in this fight and he is the better grappler with better cardio. Mark Hunt could hurt Junior Dos Santos and finish him early, so this is almost a hedge play for the Top Play listed above, but of course Mark could Hurt JDS early as Cain did and finish the fight later or maybe even just bust JDS up for 3 rds and take a decision. Again my prediction as you see below is JDS by Dec but Mark Hunt is a live dog with that chin and power.
2 Star Glover Teixeria (-310)- Glover Teixeria is a looking like one of the top LHW today. He is super well rounded and is a finisher with a strong chin. Te Huna has lots of power in his hands but he has a weak grappling game. Look for Glover Teixeria to get some takedowns and eventually lock in a submission on James Te Huna. I feel like this is free money even though you might think Te Huna is dangerous. I feel Glover will fight smart and use his strengthens vs Te Huna’s weaknesses.
½ Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeria by Submission +300
1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maynard vs. Grant (-175)- Both of these fighters are well rounded, strong chins and it should be a pretty competitive fight. Maynard has been looking for that knockout shot on his opponents lately but if he tries that with Grant he might see Grant landing more strikes. I see Maynard using his strong wrestling to take this fight to the ground and control TJ Grant.
½ Star Gray Maynard (-140)- Maynard is a great wrestler and solid striker. This line keeps moving, Vegas brought Maynard out as a (-250) favorite and the money keeps going on TJ Grant. I agree with Vegas more so than where this line currently stands. I nearly want to pull the trigger and unload a 3 star on this but we will play it safe as we have many plays tonight and bet this smaller. I think this line movement kind of has me a little caught off guard, maybe it is because TJ Grant finished his last fight but that was against Chris Wiman who isn’t a very good defensive striker.
½ Star Mike Pyle (+145)- Mike Pyle is defiantly a live dog here. He can finish fights and is a battle tested veteran of the sport. Rick Story is very predictable he comes forward throwing wild punches and is easy to takedown even though he is a solid offensive wrestler. Pyle could finish this fight or he could out strike Story on his way to a decision victory.
Top Parlays
1 Star Glover Teixeira; Dennis Burmedez (-125)
1 Star Brian Bowles; Donald Cerrone (-120)
1 Star Colton Smith; Khabib Nurmagomedov (+140)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Nah-Shon Burrell (+140)
Predictions:
Velasquez 2nd Rd TKO
Dos Santos UD
Teixeira 2nd Rd Sub
Maynard UD
Cerrone UD
Pyle UD
Bermudez UD
Smith UD
Nurmagomedov 2nd Rd Sub
Burrell UD
Bowles UD
Stephens 2nd Rd TKO
Top Play: 2 Star Prop bet Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO -250
Top Plays:
1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt (-140)- Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers but both also have great chins. I am predicting Junior Dos Santos to win this by decision and almost top played the prop Dos Santos by Dec. (+240) but I figured this is the safer play. If Mark Hunt gasses in the later rounds Dos Santos could possibly finish the fight.
½ Star Mark Hunt (+380) Mark Hunt has been on a roll, he is a great striker with tons of power. Hunt has been known to gas and Dos Santos is the big favorite in this fight and he is the better grappler with better cardio. Mark Hunt could hurt Junior Dos Santos and finish him early, so this is almost a hedge play for the Top Play listed above, but of course Mark could Hurt JDS early as Cain did and finish the fight later or maybe even just bust JDS up for 3 rds and take a decision. Again my prediction as you see below is JDS by Dec but Mark Hunt is a live dog with that chin and power.
2 Star Glover Teixeria (-310)- Glover Teixeria is a looking like one of the top LHW today. He is super well rounded and is a finisher with a strong chin. Te Huna has lots of power in his hands but he has a weak grappling game. Look for Glover Teixeria to get some takedowns and eventually lock in a submission on James Te Huna. I feel like this is free money even though you might think Te Huna is dangerous. I feel Glover will fight smart and use his strengthens vs Te Huna’s weaknesses.
½ Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeria by Submission +300
1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maynard vs. Grant (-175)- Both of these fighters are well rounded, strong chins and it should be a pretty competitive fight. Maynard has been looking for that knockout shot on his opponents lately but if he tries that with Grant he might see Grant landing more strikes. I see Maynard using his strong wrestling to take this fight to the ground and control TJ Grant.
½ Star Gray Maynard (-140)- Maynard is a great wrestler and solid striker. This line keeps moving, Vegas brought Maynard out as a (-250) favorite and the money keeps going on TJ Grant. I agree with Vegas more so than where this line currently stands. I nearly want to pull the trigger and unload a 3 star on this but we will play it safe as we have many plays tonight and bet this smaller. I think this line movement kind of has me a little caught off guard, maybe it is because TJ Grant finished his last fight but that was against Chris Wiman who isn’t a very good defensive striker.
½ Star Mike Pyle (+145)- Mike Pyle is defiantly a live dog here. He can finish fights and is a battle tested veteran of the sport. Rick Story is very predictable he comes forward throwing wild punches and is easy to takedown even though he is a solid offensive wrestler. Pyle could finish this fight or he could out strike Story on his way to a decision victory.
Top Parlays
1 Star Glover Teixeira; Dennis Burmedez (-125)
1 Star Brian Bowles; Donald Cerrone (-120)
1 Star Colton Smith; Khabib Nurmagomedov (+140)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Nah-Shon Burrell (+140)
Predictions:
Velasquez 2nd Rd TKO
Dos Santos UD
Teixeira 2nd Rd Sub
Maynard UD
Cerrone UD
Pyle UD
Bermudez UD
Smith UD
Nurmagomedov 2nd Rd Sub
Burrell UD
Bowles UD
Stephens 2nd Rd TKO
Sunday, May 19, 2013
We Cash again! Top Plays/Parlays profit 1.5 Stars (Units) FAPs 4-1
UFC on FX 8 Top Plays, Top Parlays, FAPs and Predictions
Luke Rockhold (-130) vs. Vitor Belfort (+110) 5 Rds.
Rockhold is the former Strikeforce MW Champion and is super well rounded and athletic. Vitor Belfort is an explosive striker with solid BJJ. I agree with Vegas and the line on this on. I feel this is nearly a coinflip. Vitor could win this early by TKO/KO or if this goes to the later rounds I see Rockhold being able to wear Vitor down and win the decision. Vitor’s cardio is the question mark here but many of times he doesn’t need cardio as he finishes fights in the first or 2nd round. This is a hard one to play so we have no top play on this but have FAPs on this.
Top Play: No top Play on Main Event
Main Event Forced Action Play: You might want to play a small hedge on prop bets Rockhold by Decision (+300) and Vitor by TKO/KO +175.
Top Plays:
2 Star Prop bet Dos Anjos vs Dunham goes the distance (-195)- This is going to be a very competitive fight with two solid grapplers. Dos Anjos does have some power in his hands but he shouldn’t land clean enough to finish Dunham. I see this fight going to a very close decision. You might have to take the over 2.5 if you don’t have prop plays, but I recommend the value on this fight going the distance.
½ Star Hacran Dias (+110)- Dias is a very strong grappler with strong wrestling. His opponent Nik Lentz is also a great wrestler and strong grappler. I see this being a close fight but there is value on Dias and plus if it goes to the judges the Brazilian judges should give him the nod.
½ Star Jussier Da Silva “Formiga” Prop bet by Submission (+300)- This play has value written all over it. Jussier has a wonderful submission game and he knows he could struggle with Cariaso in the standup so he should look to get this to the ground. Cariaso also was subbed in his last fight by a grappler not as elite as Jussier.
Top Parlays
1 Star Fabio Maldonado; Yuri Alcantara; Ronaldo Souza (+100)
1 Star Rafael Natal; Gleison Tibau (-110)
½ Star Over 2.5 Rds Tibau vs Cholish; Over 1.5 Rds Rio vs Trinaldo (+125)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Gleison Tibau (-220)
Jussier Da Silva Formiga (-170)
Paulo Thiago (-170)
Mike Rio (+280)
Ronaldo Souza Prop bet Inside the Distance (-205)
Predictions:
Rockhold UD
Souza 2nd Rd Sub
Dos Anjos UD
Natal UD
Dias Split Decision
Trinaldo UD
Tibau UD
Thiago UD
Alcantara 2nd Rd Sub
Maldonaldo 3rd Rd TKO
Lineker UD
Da Silva 2nd Rd Sub
Martins 2nd Rd TKO
Luke Rockhold (-130) vs. Vitor Belfort (+110) 5 Rds.
Rockhold is the former Strikeforce MW Champion and is super well rounded and athletic. Vitor Belfort is an explosive striker with solid BJJ. I agree with Vegas and the line on this on. I feel this is nearly a coinflip. Vitor could win this early by TKO/KO or if this goes to the later rounds I see Rockhold being able to wear Vitor down and win the decision. Vitor’s cardio is the question mark here but many of times he doesn’t need cardio as he finishes fights in the first or 2nd round. This is a hard one to play so we have no top play on this but have FAPs on this.
Top Play: No top Play on Main Event
Main Event Forced Action Play: You might want to play a small hedge on prop bets Rockhold by Decision (+300) and Vitor by TKO/KO +175.
Top Plays:
2 Star Prop bet Dos Anjos vs Dunham goes the distance (-195)- This is going to be a very competitive fight with two solid grapplers. Dos Anjos does have some power in his hands but he shouldn’t land clean enough to finish Dunham. I see this fight going to a very close decision. You might have to take the over 2.5 if you don’t have prop plays, but I recommend the value on this fight going the distance.
½ Star Hacran Dias (+110)- Dias is a very strong grappler with strong wrestling. His opponent Nik Lentz is also a great wrestler and strong grappler. I see this being a close fight but there is value on Dias and plus if it goes to the judges the Brazilian judges should give him the nod.
½ Star Jussier Da Silva “Formiga” Prop bet by Submission (+300)- This play has value written all over it. Jussier has a wonderful submission game and he knows he could struggle with Cariaso in the standup so he should look to get this to the ground. Cariaso also was subbed in his last fight by a grappler not as elite as Jussier.
Top Parlays
1 Star Fabio Maldonado; Yuri Alcantara; Ronaldo Souza (+100)
1 Star Rafael Natal; Gleison Tibau (-110)
½ Star Over 2.5 Rds Tibau vs Cholish; Over 1.5 Rds Rio vs Trinaldo (+125)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Gleison Tibau (-220)
Jussier Da Silva Formiga (-170)
Paulo Thiago (-170)
Mike Rio (+280)
Ronaldo Souza Prop bet Inside the Distance (-205)
Predictions:
Rockhold UD
Souza 2nd Rd Sub
Dos Anjos UD
Natal UD
Dias Split Decision
Trinaldo UD
Tibau UD
Thiago UD
Alcantara 2nd Rd Sub
Maldonaldo 3rd Rd TKO
Lineker UD
Da Silva 2nd Rd Sub
Martins 2nd Rd TKO
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Side with Us and Cash Big
Octagon Locks specializes in MMA Handicapping and predictions. Each fight we analyze and take every factor in consideration from grappling and striking to cardio and weight cuts. As you may know styles make fights and we breakdown each fighters strengths and weaknesses. After we breakdown fights we make predictions, Top Plays, Top Parlays, and Forced Action Plays (FAPs). To buy a Top Plays Package please click on the Pay Pal button at the top right of our page and choose your package. If you have any questions please don't hesitate to contact us at octagonlocks@gmail.com or contact us on twitter @octagonlocks.
Losses- 1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230); 1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)
Last 2 UFC Cards +5.9 Stars (Units)
-Top Plays 5-2 and Top Parlays 1-1= +5.9 Stars or Units
-A $200 dollar bettor who bets our Stars as Units would Profit $1,180 over the last 2 Cards!
UFC Fox 7 Top Plays:
Wins- 2 Star Benson Henderson by Decision (-115); 1 Star Josh Thomson (+155); 1 Star Matt Brown (+290); 1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)Losses- 1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230); 1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)
UFC 159 Top Play:
1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)Definitions of our Plays:
Top Plays
Top Plays are graded from 1 to 5 Stars and are the plays we advise clients to bet on.Top Parlays
Top Parlays are Parlays we advise clients to bet on.Forced Action Plays
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) are plays that missed our Top Plays but have some value. We do not advise clients to bet these plays. FAPs are plays for action junkies who need to bet more fights than we advise. Sometimes these plays are long shot dogs. If you do bet on these please be careful and make your plays small.Monday, May 13, 2013
UFC 159 Top Play, Parlay and Predictions
Jon Jones (-970) vs. Chael Sonnen (+635) 5 Rds Light Heavyweight Title
Jon Jones is the best fighter in LHW division and one of the top fighters walking the planet today. Chael has very good wrestling above average standup and an aggressive gameplan. Jon Jones will be able to stay on the outside and pick apart Sonnen. If Sonnen rushes in recklessly he could eat big shots potentially getting TKOed or possibly Subbed. I could see Jon Jones hurting Chael and going for a submission. Chael can only win this fight if he somehow takes Jones down and possibly TKOs or Subs him. I just don’t see Chael winning this by decision unless somehow he gets takedown after takedown each round. But Jon Jones has never been takedown so it will be interesting to see how Jones fights off his back. The way Chael fights so aggressively could be his greatest asset or greatest downfall. Will Chael slow up his fighting style because he knows Jones is a great counter fighter with dangerous strikes? I see Jon Jones hurting Chael sometime in the 2nd or 3rd Rd and locking in a submission.
Top Play: No top Play on Main Event but for a Forced Action Play you may want to put a small play on Jon Jones by Submission +105 or Jon Jones by TKO +150
Top Play:
1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)- Bisping is very well rounded and will mix it up with striking and takedowns to win the decision.
Top Parlay
Leonard Garcia; Jim Miller (+105)
Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Jon Jones Prop bet by Sub +105
Sheila Gaff Inside the Distance +712
Jim Miller by UD +150
Predictions:
Jones Submission 3rd Rd
Bisping UD
Nelson TKO 2nd
Davis UD
Miller UD
Khabilov 2nd Rd TKO
St. Preux UD
McMann UD
Bedford UD
Garcia 2nd Rd TKO
Siler UD
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