Saturday, June 1, 2013

UFC 160: We Cash again! Top Plays and Parlays Profit 1.2 Units

Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550) 5 Rds. For the HW Championship Cain is a well rounded and athletic HW.  His ability to mix his striking with his wrestling befuddles his opponents.  Antonio Silva is outclassed in every aspect of MMA vs Cain.  Cain could win this fight with his standup or take this to the ground and pummel Silva.  Look for Cain Velasquez to finish Antonio Silva in the 2nd rd via TKO/KO.  

Top Play:  2 Star Prop bet Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO -250

Top Plays:
1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt (-140)- Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers but both also have great chins.  I am predicting Junior Dos Santos to win this by decision and almost top played the prop Dos Santos by Dec. (+240) but I figured this is the safer play. If Mark Hunt gasses in the later rounds Dos Santos could possibly finish the fight. 

½ Star Mark Hunt (+380) Mark Hunt has been on a roll, he is a great striker with tons of power.  Hunt has been known to gas and Dos Santos is the big favorite in this fight and he is the better grappler with better cardio.  Mark Hunt could hurt Junior Dos Santos and finish him early, so this is almost a hedge play for the Top Play listed above, but of course Mark could Hurt JDS early as Cain did and finish the fight later or maybe even just bust JDS up for 3 rds and take a decision.  Again my prediction as you see below is JDS by Dec but Mark Hunt is a live dog with that chin and power. 

2 Star Glover Teixeria (-310)- Glover Teixeria is a looking like one of the top LHW today.  He is super well rounded and is a finisher with a strong chin.  Te Huna has lots of power in his hands but he has a weak grappling game.  Look for Glover Teixeria to get some takedowns and eventually lock in a submission on James Te Huna.  I feel like this is free money even though you might think Te Huna is dangerous.  I feel Glover will fight smart and use his strengthens vs Te Huna’s weaknesses.

½ Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeria by Submission +300

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maynard vs. Grant (-175)- Both of these fighters are well rounded, strong chins and it should be a pretty competitive fight.  Maynard has been looking for that knockout shot on his opponents lately but if he tries that with Grant he might see Grant landing more strikes.  I see Maynard using his strong wrestling to take this fight to the ground and control TJ Grant. 

½ Star Gray Maynard (-140)- Maynard is a great wrestler and solid striker. This line keeps moving, Vegas brought Maynard out as a (-250) favorite and the money keeps going on TJ Grant.  I agree with Vegas more so than where this line currently stands.  I nearly want to pull the trigger and unload a 3 star on this but we will play it safe as we have many plays tonight and bet this smaller.  I think this line movement kind of has me a little caught off guard, maybe it is because TJ Grant finished his last fight but that was against Chris Wiman who isn’t a very good defensive striker.  

½ Star Mike Pyle (+145)- Mike Pyle is defiantly a live dog here.  He can finish fights and is a battle tested veteran of the sport.  Rick Story is very predictable he comes forward throwing wild punches and is easy to takedown even though he is a solid offensive wrestler.  Pyle could finish this fight or he could out strike Story on his way to a decision victory.

Top Parlays
1 Star Glover Teixeira; Dennis Burmedez (-125)
1 Star Brian Bowles; Donald Cerrone (-120)
1 Star Colton Smith; Khabib Nurmagomedov (+140)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Nah-Shon Burrell (+140)

Predictions:
Velasquez 2nd Rd TKO
Dos Santos UD
Teixeira 2nd Rd Sub
Maynard UD
Cerrone UD
Pyle UD
Bermudez UD
 Smith UD
Nurmagomedov 2nd Rd Sub
Burrell UD
Bowles UD
Stephens 2nd Rd TKO

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