UFC Fight Night 30 we Cash Again

Lyoto Machida (-380) vs. Mark Munoz (+315) 5 Rds.

Machida is a wonderful counter striker with solid grappling and takedown defense.  Munoz has a solid wrestling base with pretty good striking.  Machida should be able to keep this fight standing and pick his spots.  Munoz throws many wild punches and will have to take chances to be competitive in this fight.  Machida should catch Munoz with a counter flurry and put him away sometime in the 3^rd Rd.

Top Play:  1 Star Prop Bet Lyoto Machida wins Inside the Distance (-105)

Top Plays:

1 Star Al Iaquinta (-140)- Iaquinta is a solid wrestler and boxer with power in his hands.  He continues to improve his grappling and BJJ.  Hallmann is pretty well rounded, but look for Iaquinta to land the bigger shots on his way to a decision victory or late TKO.

1 Star Andrew Craig (-175)- Craig is well rounded and has the ability to finish fights.  His opponent Barnatt is lanky with a slight reach advantage.  Craig has more ways to win this fight as he has more power and better wrestling.  Craig could land big strikes and win by TKO or use his wrestling to win on points.

½ Star Andy Ogle (+165)- Ogle is a solid boxer with underrated wrestling/grappling.  He has the advantage on the feet vs Cole Miller.  Cole Miller’s strength is his BJJ and submissions, but Ogle has shown strong grappling and submission D.  Miller could get the submission but his takedowns aren’t very good so I don’t see him getting a dominant position in the grappling unless he reverses or sweeps Ogle.  Ogle could even get top position with his superior wrestling, but I think he uses his Defensive wrestling to keep this standing and outpoint Miller.  Ogle should win this by Decision.

Top Parlays:

1 Star Lyoto Machida; John Lineker (-155)

½ Star WSOF Parlay: Josh Burkman; Marlon Moraes; Jon Fitch; Justin Gaethje (+150)

Predictions:

Machida 3^rd Rd TKO

Guillard 2^nd Rd TKO

Manuwa 2^nd Rd TKO

Parke UD

Sakara 2^nd Rd TKO

Lineker 2^nd Rd TKO

Iaquinta UD

Craig UD

Andrade UD

Ogle UD

Hettes 2^nd Rd Sub

Kuiper 2^nd Rd

UFC 166 4-0

Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+170) 5 Rds. UFC Heavyweight Title Match

This is a tough fight to call and I am going to not Top Play anything on here.  I am leaning Cain to win by UD or late TKO.  This fight just has too many question marks for me, but there is no way I could take JDS after watching him get beat down for 5 Rds in their last fight. 

Top Play:  No Top Play

Top Plays:

1 Star Prop Bet Melendez vs. Sanchez goes 3 Round Distance (-215)- Both of these fighters are extremely hard to finish and this should be more competitive than the line indicates.  Between both these guys Diego was only finished once in the 5^th Rd by BJ Penn.  I almost sprinkled a little on Diego because he is at +450, but I decided not too as Gilbert should out point Diego.  This fight is going to decision.

½ Star Gabriel Gonzaga (+160)- Gonzaga has power in his hands and a solid grappling/submission game.  His chin is questionable and Jordan packs power, but it seems like Gonzaga has improved his striking and striking defense.  I think this fight should be a coin flip so let’s play the dog with the better ground game.

½ Star KJ Noons (-160)- KJ Noons is a very good boxer with power in his hands.  His opponent Sotiropoulos is a very solid grappler with average standup.  Noons should be able to defend takedowns and find Sotriropoulos’s chin and finish this fight by TKO.

Top Parlay:

1 Star John Dodson; Tim Boetsch (+105)

Predictions:

Velasquez 4^th Rd TKO

Cormier UD

Melendez UD

Gonzaga 2^nd Rd Sub

Dodson 2^nd Rd TKO

Boetsch UD

Lombard 2^nd Rd TKO

Kaufman UD

Noons 2^nd Rd TKO

Amagov 2^nd Rd TKO

Ferguson UD

Fili 3^rd Rd TKO

Horiguchi UD

Bellator 104 1-0 Cashing in on a 2 Star +150

Top Play:  

2 Star Paul Bradley (+150)- Bradley has a NCAA Division I wrestling background from Iowa and is a well rounded MMA fighter.  His opponent Amoussou can finish fights with his submissions and has some power in his hands, but Amoussou has suspect takedown D.  Amoussou couldn’t stop Askren’s takedowns which is no surprise as Askren is a former Olympic wrestler.  Amoussou also was taken down by David Rickels and controlled on the ground.  I really think Bradley should be the favorite as he is a tough grinder who is a bad matchup for Amoussou.  Bradley should be able to land multiple takedowns and take this by Decision.

UFC Fight Night 29

Demain Maia (-280) vs. Jake Shields (+255) 5 Rds.

Demian Maia has great BJJ and has improved his standup over the years.  Jake Shields is a strong wrestler and grappler who applies constant pressure.  Both of these guys don’t have much power in their hands (especially Shields).  Jake Shields has surprised many people by somehow finding a way to win fights even if he has to by volume striking.  Maia might have a hard time getting Shields to the ground and Shields could land some takedowns and hold top position.  Maia has never fought 5 Rds at 170 lbs so if this goes late rounds he could possibly gas.  I do think this fight will be a close decision.  Lets take the Over 4.5 and small on Jake Shields.

Top Plays:  1 Star Over 4.5 Rds Maia vs Shields (-120); ½ Star Jake Shields (+255)

Top Plays:

1.5 Star Iliarde Santos (-140)- Santos is a well rounded fighter with power in his hands and solid BJJ.  I see him being able to finish this fight by TKO or win by Decision.  Even if this is a close decision the Brazilian judges usually swing the scores in favor of the Brazilian.

Top Parlay:

1 Star Thiago Silva; Mike Pierce (-120)

Predictions:

Maia Split Decision

Erick Silva 2^nd Rd TKO

Thiago Silva 2^nd Rd TKO

Maldonaldo UD

Pierce 3^rd Rd TKO

Dillashaw UD

Alcantara UD

Cabral UD

Santos UD

Patrick UD

Link below to Purchas my Top Plays for MMA Events

All of my MMA Top Plays are available at http://www.premiumsportsplays.com

Bellator 101 Top Play 1-0

Saad Awad (-175) vs. Martin Stapleton (+165)

Awad is a dangerous striker with heavy hands and pretty solid grappling.  His opponent Stapleton has fought in Europe against lesser competition.  This line opened with Awad as a -280 favorite.  I see Awad being able to do damage in the striking and hurt Stapleton and maybe finish him by TKO or win on points.  Stapleton will be outclassed in the striking and the grappling should be close, but I see Awad being able to defend takedowns effectively enough not to lose this on points.  I agree with Vegas and think Awad should be a bigger favorite.  I would say lets go 2 Stars on this but we have been cold in MMA lately so lets just be conservative and go with 1 Star.

Top Play:  1 Star Saad Awad (-175)

UFC 165 Top Plays and Predictions

Jon Jones (-900) Alexander Gustafsson (+600) 5 Rds. Lightheavyweight Championship

Jon Jones is arguably the best fighter in MMA today.  Gustafsson is a solid boxer and well rounded but he will struggle with Jones’s wrestling.  If Jones gets Gustafsson on the ground he could finish him by submission or possibly TKO him.  Jon Jones should finish Gustafsson sometime in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. Almost played Jon Jones by Submission at + money but figured we would just take him inside the distance.

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet Jon Jones wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Costa Philippou (-150)- Philippou is a dangerous striker with solid takedown defense.  Carmont will look to limit exchanges and setup takedowns.  Philippou is the better striker and should be able to defend Carmont’s takedowns and win by decision or TKO in the late stages of the fight.

½ Star Mitch Gagnon (+150)- Gagnon is a solid grappler with good submissions and improved striking.  Kimura has some slick submissions and is pretty well rounded.  I see Gagnon out striking Kimura and hurting him then submitting him or possibly winning on points.  Mitch Gagnon should take this in his home country.

Predictions:

Jones 3^rd Rd Sub

Barao UD

Mitrione 2^nd Rd TKO

Philippou 3^rd Rd TKO

Nurmagomedov UD

Jury UD

Menjivar 2^nd Rd TKO

Thompson 2^nd Rd TKO

Gagnon 2^nd Rd Sub

Makdessi UD

Prazeres UD

Caceres UD

Omielanczuk 2^nd Rd Sub

UFC Fight Night 28 Top Plays and Predictions

Glover Teixeira (-440) vs. Ryan Bader (+350) 5 Rds.

Teixeira is a 2^nd Degree Black Belt in BJJ, strong boxer, solid wrestler and a finisher. Ryan Bader is a former NCAA division 1 wrestler and has some power in his hands but is not a very technical striker.  Teixeira should be able to stuff Bader’s takedowns and brutalize him on the feet on his way to a TKO/KO victory sometime in round 2.  I could also see Glover hurting Bader with a punch then jumping on a submission to finish Bader.  Teixeria wins this fight inside the distance of 5 Rounds. 

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Yushin Okami vs. Ronaldo Souza (-150)- Okami is a well rounded grappler with technical striking and likes to work his jab.  Souza has some of the best BJJ in the UFC with explosive striking but doesn’t put together many combinations. Okami has never been submitted and I think Okami is a live dog and I almost Top Played him but I was worried that this will be a close decision and the judges will give it to Souza because they are in Brazil.  You might want to go small on Okami but I believe this one goes to Decision. 

Top Parlays:

½ Star Glover Teixeira; Joseph Benavidez; Francisco Trinaldo (-110)

½ Star Prop Bet Francisco Trinaldo vs Piotr Hallman won’t go 3 Rd. Distance; Prop Bet Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius won’t go 3 Rd. Distance (+115)

Predictions:

Teixeira 2^nd Rd TKO

Souza Split Decision

Benavidez 2^nd Rd TKO

Trinaldo 2^nd Rd TKO

Natal UD

Bagautinov 1^st Rd TKO

Arantes 3^rd Rd Sub

Zeferino UD

Hernandez 3^rd Rd TKO

Jorge UD

Villefort UD

UFC 164 Predictions and Top Plays 1-2

Benson Henderson (-125) vs. Anthony Pettis (+105) 5 Rds. Lightweight Championship

Henderson is super well rounded and athletic.  Henderson has shown the ability to win rounds and that game plan has suited him well in his title defenses.  Pettis is a dangerous striker and solid grappler.  If Pettis has a weakness it would be his wrestling.  Henderson is the better wrestler and has improved his takedowns since the first fight.  Look for Henderson to get multiple takedowns in this fight on his way to a decision victory. (might want to go small wager on the over 4.5 Rds I feel this goes to decision)

Top Play:  1 Star Benson Henderson (-115)

Top Plays:

½ Star Jamie Varner (-105)- Varner and Tibau are well rounded fighters.  Varner has more of a wrestling base and Tibau has more of a BJJ base grappling.  I see Varner being more active on the feet and possibly get this fight to the ground in the later rounds when Tibau begins to gas. Varner wins this by decision.

1 Star Soa Palelei (+130)- Palelei has power in his hands and solid grappling.  His opponent Krylov is pretty dangerous but has fought lower competition.  Palelei could get the KO in the standup or drag this to the ground with his wrestling and possibly get a ground and pound finish.

Predictions:

Henderson UD

Barnett UD

Mendes UD

Vera 3^rd Rd TKO

Koch UD

Varner UD

Elliot UD

Krauss UD

Kang 2^nd Rd Sub

Palelei 1^st Rd TKO

Iaquinta 3^rd Rd TKO

Hamman 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC Fight Night 27 Top Plays and Parlay go 2-1

Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+220) 5 Rds.

Kampmann won the first fight and this is the rematch. Condit has a granite chin, slick BJJ and strong Muay Thai striking.  His wrestling D isn’t great but Kampmann is not a pure wrestler.  Kampmann did take Condit down in the first fight and he could do so.  Look for Condit to land the bigger strikers and wear down Kampmann in the late rounds. I see Condit hurting Kampann late and TKOing him or possibly winning on points.

Top Play:  No Top Play (Included on 1 Star Parlay listed below)

Top Plays:

1 Star Brian Melancon (+255)- Melancon has powerful striking with solid wrestling.  Gastelum is a solid wrestler and throws powerful but wild punches.  Money flooded in on Gastelum and makes this line better for us.  Look for Melancon to out strike Gastelum and capitalize on an opening and hurt Gastelum and win by TKO or possibly on points.

½ Star Court McGee (+140)- Court McGee has solid boxing and a good ground game. Whittaker has some power in his punches and is primarily a boxer.  This should be a close fight and McGee could outstrike Whittaker with his volume punching or he could get Whittaker against the cage and grind it out. Court McGee takes this on a close decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Carlos Condit; Brad Tavares (-145)

Predictions:

Condit 4^th Rd TKO

Dos Anjos UD

Melancon UD

McGee UD

Perez UD

Tavares UD

Andrews 2^nd Rd TKO

Thatch 3^rd Rd TKO

Hioki UD

Head UD

Cummings UD

Turjillo 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC Fight Night 26 (Fox Sports 1)

Shogun Rua (-140) vs. Chael Sonnen (+120) 5 Rds.

Chael Sonnen is a grinding wrestler with strong takedowns and solid top control.  Shogun is a dangerous Muay Thai striker with a solid BJJ game.  Shogun does have problems with his takedown defense and has been takedown many times by wrestlers with ease.  Look for Chael to get multiple takedowns and win this fight by a Decision or possible late stoppage when Shogun gasses.

Top Play:  1 Star Chael Sonnen (+120)

Top Plays:

1 Star Alistair Overeem (-170)- Alistair Overeem is a dangerous striker with a solid grappling game. His opponent Travis Browne is also a dangerous striker and solid grappler. Overeem is the superior fighter and should finish Browne. Late money flooded in on Brown and gave us a good number on Overeem.

1 Star Matt Brown (-150)- Matt Brown is a very dangerous striker with a solid chin and has TKOed most of his opponents. His opponent Mike Pyle is well rounded and could possibly win this fight by submission, but he will have a hard time getting this fight to the ground. Look for Matt Brown to land big strikes and finish Pyle by TKO sometime in this fight.

½ Star Brad Pickett (+225)- This fight is closer than the line and it deserves a small play.  Brad Pickett is a well rounded fighter with a solid chin. Michael McDonald is a powerful striker and also well rounded with his weakness probably being his wrestling.  Pickett’s chin should serve him well and he could win this in the standup due to more offensive output or use his wrestling to grind this out and take a decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Joe Lauzon; Urijah Faber (+115)

1 Star Diego Brandao; Mike Brown (+115)

Predictions:

Sonnen UD

Overeem 2^nd Rd TKO

Faber UD

Matt Brown 2^nd Rd TKO
Hall 3^rd Rd TKO

Lauzon 2^nd Rd Sub

Pickett UD

McGregor 3^rd Rd TKO

Mike Brown 2^nd Rd TKO

Brandao 2^nd Rd TKO

Miller UD

St. Preux 2^nd Rd TKO

Nijem UD

UFC 163 3-1 on Top Plays/Parlay

Jose Aldo (-800) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+635) 5 Rds. Featherweight Championship

This should be a pretty exciting fight and Aldo should probably get the finish but we are going to stay away from this fight.  Sorry but we have no Top Play for the Main Event.  I guess if you really want a forced play from my prediction you will see below I would say take Aldo Inside the Distance.

Top Play:  No Top Play

Top Plays:

1 Star Thales Leites (-125)- Leites has a very strong grappling game with many submission victories.  His striking defense is pretty solid and he has never been TKOed. His opponent Watson has strong striking and KO power but his takedown defense is not very solid.  Look for Leites to get takedowns and win on points or by a submission.

½ Star Under 2.5 Rds Lineker vs Tome (-130)- Lineker came in over weight but he should still get the finish. Tome is also a finisher with many submission and TKO wins in his career.

½ Star Sergio Moraes (-120)- Moraes has sick submissions and has some power in his hands. His opponent Magny is rangy, but has a suspect chin and ground game. Moraes should finish this fight.

Top Parlay

1 Star Lyoto Machida; Vinny Magalhaes; Ian McCall (+105)

Predictions:

Aldo 4^th Rd TKO

Machida UD

Ferreira 2^nd Rd TKO

Leites 2^nd Rd Sub

Lineker 2^nd Rd TKO

Magalhaes UD

Nunes UD

Moraes 2^nd Rd Sub

McCall UD

Yahya 1^st Rd Sub

Oliveira 2^nd Rd TKO

Andrade UD

UFC on Fox 8 (+13 Stars/Units on last 8 Cards)

UFC on Fox 8

Demetrious Johnson (-475) vs. John Moraga (+420) 5 Rds. Flyweight Championship

Johnson should outpoint Moraga on his way to a decision victory.

Top Play:  1 Star Prop Bet Demetrious Johnson by Decision (-150)

Top Parlay

1 Star Danny Castillo; Jorge Masvidal (-115)

UFC 162 Top Plays and Top Parlay go 3-1 and Profit 2 Units/Stars

Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Chris Weidman (+190) 5 Rds. Middleweight Championship

Anderson Silva is the greatest striker in the history of MMA.  He is a dangerous striker that can finish a fight at anytime with precision power punches.  Anderson’s weakest part of his game is his wrestling.  Weidman is arguably the best grappler in MMA today, if you combine his wrestling and BJJ.  He is the better grappler and can control where this fights goes.  Weidman needs to stay cool and not rush anything and set up his takedowns.  

Anderson could win this fight mostly likely in the early rounds and possibly championship rounds by catching Weidman with strikes and I was thinking of taking Anderson inside the distance around -110 but I have a feeling Weidman is a very live dog here.  In my opinion this fight could go either way and the odds should be closer to even.  Weidman should be able to limit exchanges, not get hurt and take this fight to the ground multiple times and finish Anderson Silva in the 4^th Round by submission or maybe UD. 

Top Play:  1/2 Star Chris Weidman (+190)

Top Plays:

1 Star Tim Kennedy (-150)- Kennedy is well rounded with a solid grappling game.  Gracie is a very skilled grappler with below average striking ability. Look for Kennedy to stay away from submissions and land more strikes on his way to a decision victory.

1/2 Star Dennis Siver (+190)- Dennis Siver is a very skilled and aggressive Kickboxer, he likes to control the pace of a fight and uses punches and kicks to keep his opponents guessing.  He has improved takedown D and wrestling but Cub is better on the ground.  I don’t think this one will go to the ground though.  Swanson has dangerous boxing and a strong BJJ game and generally tries to land a big overhand right as his favorite power punch.  This fight should be closer to even, Siver could outpoint Cub as he is more active on the feet. 

Top Parlay

1 Star Norman Parke; Edson Barboza (-110)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) These Plays Missed our Top Plays (not recorded on our record)

Over 2.5 Pierce vs Mitchell (-155)

Dave Herman (+200)

Predictions:

Weidman 4^th Rd Sub

Edgar 3^rd Rd TKO

Kennedy UD

Munoz UD

Siver UD

Craig UD

Parke UD

Gonzaga 2^nd Rd Sub

Barboza 2^nd Rd TKO

Baczynski UD

Pierce UD

New Partnership with www.PremiumSportsPlays.com

Octagon Locks recently partnered with www.PremiumSportsPlays.com to bring you a one stop shop for Sports Handicapping.  Our Packages will no longer be offered here so go to www.PremiumSportsPlays.com/mma-plays.html .  Premium Sports Plays offers daily free plays in MLB so check out the website and sign up fore a newsletter/free plays package.

UFC 161 Results

Rashad Evans (-155) vs. Dan Henderson (+145)
Evans is a solid wrestler and a great athlete.  Henderson is  a solid wrestler with power in his hands especially his right.  This is a close fight and Rashad needs to use his wrestling to win this fight and Henderson needs to keep it standing and win the clinch battle.  Henderson’s defensive wrestling has struggled in the past and Rashad has looked average in the striking department lately.  This is a hard fight to call and I think this is near a coin flip.  I am going to go with Dan Henderson by 2^nd Rd TKO.

Top Play:  1/2 Star Dan Henderson (+145)

Top Play:

1/2 Star Jake Shields (+190)- Shields is a wonderful grappler, has strong takedowns and a high fighter IQ.  Woodley is a more explosive striker with solid wrestling.  Woodley doesn’t have the best defensive wrestling and Shields could get this fight to the ground and look for a submission or score points from top position. This fight should be closer to even in my opinion, take Jake Shields (+190).

Top Parlay
1 Star Roy Nelson; Alexis Davis (-140)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Roy Nelson Prop inside the distance (-120)
Shawn Jordan (+125)

Predictions:
Henderson 2^nd Rd TKO
Nelson 2^nd Rd TKO
Jimmo UD
Davis UD
Jordan 2^nd Rd Sub
Shields UD
Stout UD
Pierson UD
Delorme 3^rd Rd Sub
Maguire UD
Jabouin 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC on Fuel 10 Top Plays and Top Parlays go 5-1 & Profit 3 Units/Stars

Fabricio Werdum (-300) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+250) 5 Rds. Werdum has a very strong grappling, BJJ game and his striking continues to improve. Nogueira is a great grappler and has solid boxing, but he is getting older and look for his chin to get tested in this one.  Werdum takes this fight with his superior standup and TKOs Noguiera sometime in the 2^nd Rd.  

Top Play:  1 Star Prop bet Fabricio Werdum wins Inside the Distance (-140)

Top Plays:
1/2 Star Prop Bet Fight won’t go the Distance Macario vs Santos (-105)- Macario is a dangerous striker and finishes most of his fights with his punching power. Santos is a strong grappler who wins many fights by submission.  I see either fighter being able to finish this fight.  Take the under 2.5 if you aren’t able to prop bet the fight won’t go the distance.

1 Star Erick Silva Prop wins Inside the Distance (-190)- Erick Silva is a finisher with explosive striking and a sick submission game.  I believe Erick Silva probably finishes this fight by TKO/KO but he could very easily lock in a submission if he hurts High. I was thinking of going Silva by TKO/KO prop at +115 but decided to play it safe and take Silva to win Inside the Distance.

½ Star Godofredo “Pepey” Castro (+190)- Castro is developing his striking game and is a very strong grappler with slick submissions.  Look for Castro to out strike and out grapple Arantes on his way to a decision victory.This line should be closer to even. 

Top Parlays
1 Star Erick Silva; Raphael Assuncao (-160)
1 Star Antonio Neto; Over 2.5 Rds Damm vs. Hiota (+125)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
William Macario (+180)
Karlos Vemola (-120)

Predictions:
Werdum 2^nd Rd TKO
Macario 2^nd Rd TKO
Calvacante 2^nd Rd TKO
Sarafian 2^nd Rd Sub
Silva 1^st Rd TKO
Bezerra 3^rd Rd TKO
Assuncao UD
Castro UD
Alcantara 2nd Rd Sub
Hirota UD
Vemola UD
Neto 1^st Rd Sub

UFC 160: We Cash again! Top Plays and Parlays Profit 1.2 Units

Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550) 5 Rds. For the HW Championship Cain is a well rounded and athletic HW.  His ability to mix his striking with his wrestling befuddles his opponents.  Antonio Silva is outclassed in every aspect of MMA vs Cain.  Cain could win this fight with his standup or take this to the ground and pummel Silva.  Look for Cain Velasquez to finish Antonio Silva in the 2^nd rd via TKO/KO.  

Top Play:  2 Star Prop bet Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO -250

Top Plays:
1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt (-140)- Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers but both also have great chins.  I am predicting Junior Dos Santos to win this by decision and almost top played the prop Dos Santos by Dec. (+240) but I figured this is the safer play. If Mark Hunt gasses in the later rounds Dos Santos could possibly finish the fight. 

½ Star Mark Hunt (+380) Mark Hunt has been on a roll, he is a great striker with tons of power.  Hunt has been known to gas and Dos Santos is the big favorite in this fight and he is the better grappler with better cardio.  Mark Hunt could hurt Junior Dos Santos and finish him early, so this is almost a hedge play for the Top Play listed above, but of course Mark could Hurt JDS early as Cain did and finish the fight later or maybe even just bust JDS up for 3 rds and take a decision.  Again my prediction as you see below is JDS by Dec but Mark Hunt is a live dog with that chin and power. 

2 Star Glover Teixeria (-310)- Glover Teixeria is a looking like one of the top LHW today.  He is super well rounded and is a finisher with a strong chin.  Te Huna has lots of power in his hands but he has a weak grappling game.  Look for Glover Teixeria to get some takedowns and eventually lock in a submission on James Te Huna.  I feel like this is free money even though you might think Te Huna is dangerous.  I feel Glover will fight smart and use his strengthens vs Te Huna’s weaknesses.

½ Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeria by Submission +300

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maynard vs. Grant (-175)- Both of these fighters are well rounded, strong chins and it should be a pretty competitive fight.  Maynard has been looking for that knockout shot on his opponents lately but if he tries that with Grant he might see Grant landing more strikes.  I see Maynard using his strong wrestling to take this fight to the ground and control TJ Grant. 

½ Star Gray Maynard (-140)- Maynard is a great wrestler and solid striker. This line keeps moving, Vegas brought Maynard out as a (-250) favorite and the money keeps going on TJ Grant.  I agree with Vegas more so than where this line currently stands.  I nearly want to pull the trigger and unload a 3 star on this but we will play it safe as we have many plays tonight and bet this smaller.  I think this line movement kind of has me a little caught off guard, maybe it is because TJ Grant finished his last fight but that was against Chris Wiman who isn’t a very good defensive striker.  

½ Star Mike Pyle (+145)- Mike Pyle is defiantly a live dog here.  He can finish fights and is a battle tested veteran of the sport.  Rick Story is very predictable he comes forward throwing wild punches and is easy to takedown even though he is a solid offensive wrestler.  Pyle could finish this fight or he could out strike Story on his way to a decision victory.

Top Parlays
1 Star Glover Teixeira; Dennis Burmedez (-125)
1 Star Brian Bowles; Donald Cerrone (-120)
1 Star Colton Smith; Khabib Nurmagomedov (+140)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Nah-Shon Burrell (+140)

Predictions:
Velasquez 2^nd Rd TKO
Dos Santos UD
Teixeira 2^nd Rd Sub
Maynard UD
Cerrone UD
Pyle UD
Bermudez UD
 Smith UD
Nurmagomedov 2^nd Rd Sub
Burrell UD
Bowles UD
Stephens 2^nd Rd TKO

We Cash again! Top Plays/Parlays profit 1.5 Stars (Units) FAPs 4-1

UFC on FX 8 Top Plays, Top Parlays, FAPs and Predictions

Luke Rockhold (-130) vs. Vitor Belfort (+110) 5 Rds.
Rockhold is the former Strikeforce MW Champion and is super well rounded and athletic.  Vitor Belfort is an explosive striker with solid BJJ.  I agree with Vegas and the line on this on.  I feel this is nearly a coinflip.  Vitor could win this early by TKO/KO or if this goes to the later rounds I see Rockhold being able to wear Vitor down and win the decision.  Vitor’s cardio is the question mark here but many of times he doesn’t need cardio as he finishes fights in the first or 2^nd round.  This is a hard one to play so we have no top play on this but have FAPs on this.

Top Play:  No top Play on Main Event
Main Event Forced Action Play: You might want to play a small hedge on prop bets Rockhold by Decision (+300) and Vitor by TKO/KO +175.

Top Plays:
2 Star Prop bet Dos Anjos vs Dunham goes the distance (-195)- This is going to be a very competitive fight with two solid grapplers. Dos Anjos does have some power in his hands but he shouldn’t land clean enough to finish Dunham.  I see this fight going to a very close decision.  You might have to take the over 2.5 if you don’t have prop plays, but I recommend the value on this fight going the distance.
½ Star Hacran Dias (+110)- Dias is a very strong grappler with strong wrestling.  His opponent Nik Lentz is also a great wrestler and strong grappler.  I see this being a close fight but there is value on Dias and plus if it goes to the judges the Brazilian judges should give him the nod.
½ Star Jussier Da Silva “Formiga” Prop bet by Submission (+300)- This play has value written all over it.  Jussier has a wonderful submission game and he knows he could struggle with Cariaso in the standup so he should look to get this to the ground.  Cariaso also was subbed in his last fight by a grappler not as elite as Jussier.

Top Parlays
1 Star Fabio Maldonado; Yuri Alcantara; Ronaldo Souza (+100)
1 Star Rafael Natal; Gleison Tibau (-110)
½ Star Over 2.5 Rds Tibau vs Cholish; Over 1.5 Rds Rio vs Trinaldo (+125)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Gleison Tibau (-220)
Jussier Da Silva Formiga (-170)
Paulo Thiago (-170)
Mike Rio (+280)
Ronaldo Souza Prop bet Inside the Distance (-205)

Predictions:
Rockhold UD
Souza 2^nd Rd Sub
Dos Anjos UD
Natal UD
Dias Split Decision
Trinaldo UD
Tibau UD
Thiago UD
Alcantara 2^nd Rd Sub
Maldonaldo 3^rd Rd TKO
Lineker UD
Da Silva 2^nd Rd Sub
Martins 2^nd Rd TKO

Side with Us and Cash Big

Octagon Locks specializes in MMA Handicapping and predictions.  Each fight we analyze and take every factor in consideration from grappling and striking to cardio and weight cuts.  As you may know styles make fights and we breakdown each fighters strengths and weaknesses.  After we breakdown fights we make predictions, Top Plays, Top Parlays, and Forced Action Plays (FAPs).  To buy a Top Plays Package please click on the Pay Pal button at the top right of our page and choose your package.  If you have any questions please don't hesitate to contact us at octagonlocks@gmail.com or contact us on twitter @octagonlocks.  
 

Last 2 UFC Cards +5.9 Stars (Units)

-Top Plays 5-2 and Top Parlays 1-1= +5.9 Stars or Units

-A $200 dollar bettor who bets our Stars as Units would Profit $1,180 over the last 2 Cards!

UFC Fox 7 Top Plays: 

Wins- 2 Star Benson Henderson by Decision (-115); 1 Star  Josh Thomson (+155); 1 Star Matt Brown (+290); 1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)

Losses- 1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230); 1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)

UFC 159 Top Play:

1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)

Definitions of our Plays:

Top Plays

Top Plays are graded from 1 to 5 Stars and are the plays we advise clients to bet on.

 

Top Parlays

Top Parlays are Parlays we advise clients to bet on.

 

 

Forced Action Plays

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) are plays that missed our Top Plays but have some value.  We do not advise clients to bet these plays. FAPs are plays for action junkies who need to bet more fights than we advise.  Sometimes these plays are long shot dogs.  If you do bet on these please be careful and make your plays small.

UFC 159 Top Play, Parlay and Predictions

Jon Jones (-970) vs. Chael Sonnen (+635) 5 Rds Light Heavyweight Title

Jon Jones is the best fighter in LHW division and one of the top fighters walking the planet today.  Chael has very good wrestling above average standup and an aggressive gameplan.  Jon Jones will be able to stay on the outside and pick apart Sonnen.  If Sonnen rushes in recklessly he could eat big shots potentially getting TKOed or possibly Subbed.  I could see Jon Jones hurting Chael and going for a submission.  Chael can only win this fight if he somehow takes Jones down and possibly TKOs or Subs him.  I just don’t see Chael winning this by decision unless somehow he gets takedown after takedown each round. But Jon Jones has never been takedown so it will be interesting to see how Jones fights off his back. The way Chael fights so aggressively could be his greatest asset or greatest downfall.  Will Chael slow up his fighting style because he knows Jones is a great counter fighter with dangerous strikes?  I see Jon Jones hurting Chael sometime in the 2^nd or 3^rd Rd and locking in a submission.

Top Play:  No top Play on Main Event but for a Forced Action Play you may want to put a small play on Jon Jones by Submission +105 or Jon Jones by TKO +150

Top Play:

1 Star Michael Bisping (-170)- Bisping is very well rounded and will mix it up with striking and takedowns to win the decision. 

Top Parlay

Leonard Garcia; Jim Miller (+105)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies

Jon Jones Prop bet by Sub +105

Sheila Gaff Inside the Distance +712 

Jim Miller by UD +150

Predictions:

Jones Submission 3^rd Rd

Bisping UD

Nelson TKO 2^nd

Davis UD

Miller UD

Khabilov 2^nd Rd TKO

St. Preux UD

McMann UD

Bedford UD

Garcia 2^nd Rd TKO

Siler UD