UFC on Fox 7 Top Plays and Parlays Total: 5-2

Benson Henderson (-270) vs. Gilbert Melendez (+250) 5 Rds Lightweight Title
Benson Henderson is the most complete LW on the planet today.  Melendez is very well rounded himself and has strong boxing and wrestling.  Benson is probably slightly better than Melenedez in nearly every aspect of MMA and is more athletic.  I think Melendez could give Henderson some problems if Henderson chooses to stand at a boxing range and exchange.  I really think Henderson will dictate the pace of this fight with his quickness and ability to mix up it up in the striking department and takedowns.  Benson Henderson takes this one by UD say (49-46 x3).  Take Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115).

Top Play:  2 Star Benson Henderson Prop bet by Decision (-115)

Top Plays:
1 Star Josh Thomson (+155)- Thomson is looking great this stage in his career.  His wrestling and grappling are his strengths.  Nate Diaz struggles with wrestlers and his weakness is his takedown defense.  This is not the best matchup for Nate Diaz even though he could possibly finish Thomson with a flurry of punches.  

1 Star Matt Brown (+290)- Matt Brown is a dangerous fighter.  He has powerful strikes and his grappling keeps improving.  Mein is a very slick striker and has some power.  I am very surprised this like is so juicy for Brown. I know Mein is confident in his striking but he has to be careful,  if Brown lands a heavy combo it could be lights out for Mein.

1 Star Francis Carmont (-145)- Carmont has some pretty explosive strikes, long reach and solid grappling.  Larkin is a very crafty striker who uses footwork and angles to confuse fighters.  This is an interesting fight but Carmont has more ways to win this.  Carmont probably will get a takedown sometime and lock in a submission.  I just don’t think Larkin’s grappling is that great.

1 Star Ramsey Nijem (+230)- Nijem is a solid grappler and pretty decent all around.  Jury steps in the octagon undefeated tonight.  He had a smart gameplan and took down Michael Johnson multiple times in his last fight.  Johnson has terrible takedown D.  Nijem should be able to stuff takedowns and possibly get a takedown or two of his own.  The standup is pretty even in this one Jury has the length advantage but Nijem has more power in his strikes. This line should be closer to even. 

1 Star Clifford Starks (+145)- Starks has a solid wrestling background and improving standup.  He should be able to stay away from Romero’s power and land a takedown.  Clifford Starks takes this one by UD.

Top Parlay
Njokuani; Benavidez; Mendes (+115)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
+350 Frank Mir
+120 Tim Means

Predictions:
Henderson UD
Cormier 2^nd Rd TKO
Thomson UD
Brown 2^nd Rd TKO
Mendes UD
Carmont 2^nd Rd Sub
Nijem UD
Benavidez UD
Means UD
Dillashaw 2^nd Rd Sub
Njokuani UD
Starks UD

TUF 17

Urijah Faber(-450) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+410) 5 Rds
Faber is one of the best 135lbs fighters on the planet.  Jorgensen has solid wrestling and average standup.  This is one of those fights where the favorite is just better than the dog in every aspect of MMA.  The ONLY way Jorgensen might win this fight is to get a lucky KO punch or hurt Faber and finish him by TKO.  But good luck trying to knock out Faber and that Jay Leno chin.  Lets pull our nuts out and show the bookie we got some and cash on this big favorite.  I usually say don’t throw big on heavy favorites, but this is one where I say lock load and pull the trigger.  

Top Play: 5 Star Urijah Faber(-450)  

Top Plays:
1 Star Cat Zingano (-115)- Cat has solid grappling and powerful aggressive standup.  Look for Zingano to bring the fight to Tate.  Tate’s standup is her weakness and she will have to get this fight to the ground.  I say Zingano wins this by 2^nd or 3^rd Rd TKO. 

1 Star Bart Palaszewski (-160)- Bart is a solid striker, look for Bart to keep this fight standing and pick apart Cole Miller possible getting a TKO stoppage in the later stages of the fight.

1 Star Sam Sicilia (+190)- Sicilia has solid standup with power in his hands.  This fight seems like it should be near a coin flip.  

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):
Travis Browne Inside the Distance (-140)
Urijah Faber Inside the Distance (-140) (5 Rd. Fight)
Bristol Marunde (+140)

Predictions:
Faber 3^rd Rd Sub
Hall 2^nd Rd TKO
Zingano 2^nd Rd TKO
Palaszewski 3^rd Rd TKO
Pineda UD
Sicilia 2^nd Rd TKO
Browne 2^nd Rd TKO
Marunde 1^st Rd Sub

WSOF 2 Top Plays

Andrei Arlovski (-120) vs. Anthony Johnson (+110) HW Bout

Arlovski is known for his striking and power in his.  He has had problems with his chin and many people think his chin is shot.  Anthony Johnson beefed up to 230 lbs for this fight and he didn’t look bloated.  Johnson is a big man and had no business fighting at a starved 170 lbs and even 185 lbs.  His natural weight class is probably 205 but he has the strength to beef up and fight at HW.  Johnson has solid wrestling and explosive striking.  Arlovski has been working with Greg Jackson so you can expect him to probably counter fight and defend takedowns.  I see Johnson being the one pushing the pace and he could use his wrestling to gain takedowns in this fight.  Arlovski is very dangerous with his hands and could KO Johnson, but Johnson has more tools to win this fight.  Johnson could either KO or TKO Arlovski or even decision him if he wants to use his wrestling and clinch work. Take Anthony Johnson (+110).

Top Play:  1 Star Anthony Johnson (+110)

David Branch (-220) vs. Paulo Filho (+185)

Branch has a solid BJJ game with some decent takedowns.  His standup is very basic and he is not a power puncher.  He usually flashes his jab and looks for takedowns at certain points in the fight.  Paulo Filho is an aggressive fighter with solid power in his hands.  Filho’s BJJ game very solid and he can get the fight to the ground with takedowns.  Filho does have a history of drug problems and is not the same fighter we saw 5 years ago when he defeated Chael Sonnen.  Filho could gas in the later rounds and that makes him a slight liability.  There is no way I could think about taking David Branch at (-220).  Filho could finish this fight or win a Decision by pressing the action.  Take Paulo Filho (+185).

Top Plays:  1/2 Star Paulo Filho (+185)

Justin Gaethje (-150) vs. Gesias Cavalcante (+130)

Gaethje has a wrestling background and pretty solid standup.  Gesias “JZ” is a vet with many big fights under his belt.  At first I was thinking “JZ” is the pick but he is so up and down.  Look for Gaethje to use his wrestling and push JZ against the cage.  This fight should go to decision.  Take the Over 2.5 Rds. (+120)

Top Plays:  1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Gaethje vs Cavalcante (+120)

UFC 158 Top Plays and Parlay

George St. Pierre (-525) vs. Nick Diaz (+450) 5 Rds Welterweight Title

GSP is very athletic, well rounded with some of the best takedowns and top control in MMA.  Nick Diaz has great cardio, granite chin, boxing and BJJ.  Diaz will try to make this a brawl as he will try to hunt down GSP throwing combinations.  GSP will look to mix in takedowns with his strikres and limit exchanges in the pocket.  GSP will only win this fight by decision.  If Diaz wins this fight it will be by Sub or TKO.  It is highly unlikely GSP finishes Diaz.  My prediction is GSP by UD but with this line being at -525, there is no value on GSP unless you parlay him or take him by decision.  I know you guys want a play for this fight so either take GSP by UD at -230 ish or if you want to gamble and throw a little on Nick Diaz at +450.     

Top Plays:  Take your choice: (never done this but I am not in love with either bet) GSP by Dec -230 or Diaz +450 Note: Might as well count this as a FAP because I can’t count this towards my overall record

Top Plays:

1/2 Star Carlos Condit (+120)- Condit has the longer reach and should stay on the outside with his Muay Thai..If it hits the ground Condit has been able reverse position with his BJJ in the past…Close fight here but lets put a little on the dog

1 Star Nate Marquardt (+150)- Ellenberger has been known to gas in the later rounds.  Marquardt is a more technical fighter and should take this by a late finish or possibly Decision

2 Star Darren Elkins (-200)- Elkins is a solid wrestler and grappler.  Look for him to take this fight to the ground multiple times on his way to a decision victory.

Top Parlay

1 Star Rick Story; Mike Ricci: TJ Dillashaw (-110)

Forced Action Plays (For Action Junkies):

George Roop +125

Under 2.5 Rds Dillashaw vs Tamura (+140)

Predictions:

GSP UD

Condit UD

Marquardt 3^rd TKO

Camozzi UD

Ricci UD

Cote UD

Elkins UD

Mein UD

Cruickshank UD

Story UD

Dillashaw 2^nd Rd. Sub

Roop 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC on Fuel 8 Overall 3-1!

Top Plays:

1 Star Mark Hunt (+185)

2 Star Diego Sanchez (-200)

1 Star Hector Lombard (-200)

Top Parlay

1 Star Dong Hyun Kim; Takeya Mizugaki (+120)

UFC 157

Lyoto Machida (-240) vs. Dan Henderson (+200)

Machida is an elusive counter striker, with a great overall game.  Machida’s weakness is probably his chin.  Henderson has an aggressive striker with a solid wrestling game and granite chin.  This fight should be closer to a coin toss and maybe the way styles are concerned I feel Hendo is the slight favorite.  Look for Dan Henderson to close the distance and try to turn this into a brawl.  Henderson will even look to push Machida against the cage and wear him down.  Look for Henderson to take this by 2^nd Rd TKO or possibly UD.  Take Dan Henderson (+200).

Top Play:  2 Star Dan Henderson (+200)

Top Plays with Short Write Ups

1 Star Urijah Faber by Decision prop (+105)- Look for Faber to grind this one out vs the dangerous Menjivar.

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Koscheck vs Lawler (-155)- Kos will look to use his wrestling more in this fight than his previous fights with wrestlers as of late.   Lawler has powerful striking but avg to below avg grappling.  Look for Kos to control this fight on the ground and using fence work to take the UD.

Top Parlays

1 Star Josh Koscheck; Urijah Faber; Court McGee (+105)

1 Star Mike Chiesa; Dennis Bermudez (-115)

UFC on Fuel 7

Top Plays:

1 Star Over 3.5 Rds Barao vs McDonald (-155)

1 Star Cub Swanson (-110)

1 Star Che Mills (-125)

1 Star John Grispi (-145)

1 Star Stanislav Nedkov (+110)

FAPs

Barao by Decision (+145)

James Te-Huna (-225)