UFC Fight Night 28 Top Plays and Predictions

Glover Teixeira (-440) vs. Ryan Bader (+350) 5 Rds.

Teixeira is a 2^nd Degree Black Belt in BJJ, strong boxer, solid wrestler and a finisher. Ryan Bader is a former NCAA division 1 wrestler and has some power in his hands but is not a very technical striker.  Teixeira should be able to stuff Bader’s takedowns and brutalize him on the feet on his way to a TKO/KO victory sometime in round 2.  I could also see Glover hurting Bader with a punch then jumping on a submission to finish Bader.  Teixeria wins this fight inside the distance of 5 Rounds. 

Top Play:  2 Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeira wins Inside the Distance (-225)

Top Plays:

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Yushin Okami vs. Ronaldo Souza (-150)- Okami is a well rounded grappler with technical striking and likes to work his jab.  Souza has some of the best BJJ in the UFC with explosive striking but doesn’t put together many combinations. Okami has never been submitted and I think Okami is a live dog and I almost Top Played him but I was worried that this will be a close decision and the judges will give it to Souza because they are in Brazil.  You might want to go small on Okami but I believe this one goes to Decision. 

Top Parlays:

½ Star Glover Teixeira; Joseph Benavidez; Francisco Trinaldo (-110)

½ Star Prop Bet Francisco Trinaldo vs Piotr Hallman won’t go 3 Rd. Distance; Prop Bet Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius won’t go 3 Rd. Distance (+115)

Predictions:

Teixeira 2^nd Rd TKO

Souza Split Decision

Benavidez 2^nd Rd TKO

Trinaldo 2^nd Rd TKO

Natal UD

Bagautinov 1^st Rd TKO

Arantes 3^rd Rd Sub

Zeferino UD

Hernandez 3^rd Rd TKO

Jorge UD

Villefort UD

UFC 164 Predictions and Top Plays 1-2

Benson Henderson (-125) vs. Anthony Pettis (+105) 5 Rds. Lightweight Championship

Henderson is super well rounded and athletic.  Henderson has shown the ability to win rounds and that game plan has suited him well in his title defenses.  Pettis is a dangerous striker and solid grappler.  If Pettis has a weakness it would be his wrestling.  Henderson is the better wrestler and has improved his takedowns since the first fight.  Look for Henderson to get multiple takedowns in this fight on his way to a decision victory. (might want to go small wager on the over 4.5 Rds I feel this goes to decision)

Top Play:  1 Star Benson Henderson (-115)

Top Plays:

½ Star Jamie Varner (-105)- Varner and Tibau are well rounded fighters.  Varner has more of a wrestling base and Tibau has more of a BJJ base grappling.  I see Varner being more active on the feet and possibly get this fight to the ground in the later rounds when Tibau begins to gas. Varner wins this by decision.

1 Star Soa Palelei (+130)- Palelei has power in his hands and solid grappling.  His opponent Krylov is pretty dangerous but has fought lower competition.  Palelei could get the KO in the standup or drag this to the ground with his wrestling and possibly get a ground and pound finish.

Predictions:

Henderson UD

Barnett UD

Mendes UD

Vera 3^rd Rd TKO

Koch UD

Varner UD

Elliot UD

Krauss UD

Kang 2^nd Rd Sub

Palelei 1^st Rd TKO

Iaquinta 3^rd Rd TKO

Hamman 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC Fight Night 27 Top Plays and Parlay go 2-1

Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+220) 5 Rds.

Kampmann won the first fight and this is the rematch. Condit has a granite chin, slick BJJ and strong Muay Thai striking.  His wrestling D isn’t great but Kampmann is not a pure wrestler.  Kampmann did take Condit down in the first fight and he could do so.  Look for Condit to land the bigger strikers and wear down Kampmann in the late rounds. I see Condit hurting Kampann late and TKOing him or possibly winning on points.

Top Play:  No Top Play (Included on 1 Star Parlay listed below)

Top Plays:

1 Star Brian Melancon (+255)- Melancon has powerful striking with solid wrestling.  Gastelum is a solid wrestler and throws powerful but wild punches.  Money flooded in on Gastelum and makes this line better for us.  Look for Melancon to out strike Gastelum and capitalize on an opening and hurt Gastelum and win by TKO or possibly on points.

½ Star Court McGee (+140)- Court McGee has solid boxing and a good ground game. Whittaker has some power in his punches and is primarily a boxer.  This should be a close fight and McGee could outstrike Whittaker with his volume punching or he could get Whittaker against the cage and grind it out. Court McGee takes this on a close decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Carlos Condit; Brad Tavares (-145)

Predictions:

Condit 4^th Rd TKO

Dos Anjos UD

Melancon UD

McGee UD

Perez UD

Tavares UD

Andrews 2^nd Rd TKO

Thatch 3^rd Rd TKO

Hioki UD

Head UD

Cummings UD

Turjillo 2^nd Rd TKO

UFC Fight Night 26 (Fox Sports 1)

Shogun Rua (-140) vs. Chael Sonnen (+120) 5 Rds.

Chael Sonnen is a grinding wrestler with strong takedowns and solid top control.  Shogun is a dangerous Muay Thai striker with a solid BJJ game.  Shogun does have problems with his takedown defense and has been takedown many times by wrestlers with ease.  Look for Chael to get multiple takedowns and win this fight by a Decision or possible late stoppage when Shogun gasses.

Top Play:  1 Star Chael Sonnen (+120)

Top Plays:

1 Star Alistair Overeem (-170)- Alistair Overeem is a dangerous striker with a solid grappling game. His opponent Travis Browne is also a dangerous striker and solid grappler. Overeem is the superior fighter and should finish Browne. Late money flooded in on Brown and gave us a good number on Overeem.

1 Star Matt Brown (-150)- Matt Brown is a very dangerous striker with a solid chin and has TKOed most of his opponents. His opponent Mike Pyle is well rounded and could possibly win this fight by submission, but he will have a hard time getting this fight to the ground. Look for Matt Brown to land big strikes and finish Pyle by TKO sometime in this fight.

½ Star Brad Pickett (+225)- This fight is closer than the line and it deserves a small play.  Brad Pickett is a well rounded fighter with a solid chin. Michael McDonald is a powerful striker and also well rounded with his weakness probably being his wrestling.  Pickett’s chin should serve him well and he could win this in the standup due to more offensive output or use his wrestling to grind this out and take a decision.

Top Parlays

1 Star Joe Lauzon; Urijah Faber (+115)

1 Star Diego Brandao; Mike Brown (+115)

Predictions:

Sonnen UD

Overeem 2^nd Rd TKO

Faber UD

Matt Brown 2^nd Rd TKO
Hall 3^rd Rd TKO

Lauzon 2^nd Rd Sub

Pickett UD

McGregor 3^rd Rd TKO

Mike Brown 2^nd Rd TKO

Brandao 2^nd Rd TKO

Miller UD

St. Preux 2^nd Rd TKO

Nijem UD

UFC 163 3-1 on Top Plays/Parlay

Jose Aldo (-800) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+635) 5 Rds. Featherweight Championship

This should be a pretty exciting fight and Aldo should probably get the finish but we are going to stay away from this fight.  Sorry but we have no Top Play for the Main Event.  I guess if you really want a forced play from my prediction you will see below I would say take Aldo Inside the Distance.

Top Play:  No Top Play

Top Plays:

1 Star Thales Leites (-125)- Leites has a very strong grappling game with many submission victories.  His striking defense is pretty solid and he has never been TKOed. His opponent Watson has strong striking and KO power but his takedown defense is not very solid.  Look for Leites to get takedowns and win on points or by a submission.

½ Star Under 2.5 Rds Lineker vs Tome (-130)- Lineker came in over weight but he should still get the finish. Tome is also a finisher with many submission and TKO wins in his career.

½ Star Sergio Moraes (-120)- Moraes has sick submissions and has some power in his hands. His opponent Magny is rangy, but has a suspect chin and ground game. Moraes should finish this fight.

Top Parlay

1 Star Lyoto Machida; Vinny Magalhaes; Ian McCall (+105)

Predictions:

Aldo 4^th Rd TKO

Machida UD

Ferreira 2^nd Rd TKO

Leites 2^nd Rd Sub

Lineker 2^nd Rd TKO

Magalhaes UD

Nunes UD

Moraes 2^nd Rd Sub

McCall UD

Yahya 1^st Rd Sub

Oliveira 2^nd Rd TKO

Andrade UD

UFC on Fox 8 (+13 Stars/Units on last 8 Cards)

UFC on Fox 8

Demetrious Johnson (-475) vs. John Moraga (+420) 5 Rds. Flyweight Championship

Johnson should outpoint Moraga on his way to a decision victory.

Top Play:  1 Star Prop Bet Demetrious Johnson by Decision (-150)

Top Parlay

1 Star Danny Castillo; Jorge Masvidal (-115)

UFC 162 Top Plays and Top Parlay go 3-1 and Profit 2 Units/Stars

Anderson Silva (-240) vs. Chris Weidman (+190) 5 Rds. Middleweight Championship

Anderson Silva is the greatest striker in the history of MMA.  He is a dangerous striker that can finish a fight at anytime with precision power punches.  Anderson’s weakest part of his game is his wrestling.  Weidman is arguably the best grappler in MMA today, if you combine his wrestling and BJJ.  He is the better grappler and can control where this fights goes.  Weidman needs to stay cool and not rush anything and set up his takedowns.  

Anderson could win this fight mostly likely in the early rounds and possibly championship rounds by catching Weidman with strikes and I was thinking of taking Anderson inside the distance around -110 but I have a feeling Weidman is a very live dog here.  In my opinion this fight could go either way and the odds should be closer to even.  Weidman should be able to limit exchanges, not get hurt and take this fight to the ground multiple times and finish Anderson Silva in the 4^th Round by submission or maybe UD. 

Top Play:  1/2 Star Chris Weidman (+190)

Top Plays:

1 Star Tim Kennedy (-150)- Kennedy is well rounded with a solid grappling game.  Gracie is a very skilled grappler with below average striking ability. Look for Kennedy to stay away from submissions and land more strikes on his way to a decision victory.

1/2 Star Dennis Siver (+190)- Dennis Siver is a very skilled and aggressive Kickboxer, he likes to control the pace of a fight and uses punches and kicks to keep his opponents guessing.  He has improved takedown D and wrestling but Cub is better on the ground.  I don’t think this one will go to the ground though.  Swanson has dangerous boxing and a strong BJJ game and generally tries to land a big overhand right as his favorite power punch.  This fight should be closer to even, Siver could outpoint Cub as he is more active on the feet. 

Top Parlay

1 Star Norman Parke; Edson Barboza (-110)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) These Plays Missed our Top Plays (not recorded on our record)

Over 2.5 Pierce vs Mitchell (-155)

Dave Herman (+200)

Predictions:

Weidman 4^th Rd Sub

Edgar 3^rd Rd TKO

Kennedy UD

Munoz UD

Siver UD

Craig UD

Parke UD

Gonzaga 2^nd Rd Sub

Barboza 2^nd Rd TKO

Baczynski UD

Pierce UD