TUF Finale 16 Top Plays/Parlay 3-1

Top Plays: 

Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Matt Mitrione (+220)

Nelson has a great chin and some power in his hands also an underrated ground game.  Mitrione has above average boxing and a decent grappling game.  Nelson is rightfully the favorite and should win this fight probably sometime in the 3^rd or 4^th round with a TKO.  If you would like to bet Nelson straight I don’t see any reason not to but we have a parlay on him but Take the Over 1.5 Rds. (-185).

Top Play:  1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Nelson vs Mitrione (-185)

Top Plays with Short Write Ups Due to Time Restraints

3 Star Dustin Poirier (-250)- Poirier has better stand up, grappling and is more athletic than Brookins; Poirier should have the advantage anywhere this fight goes

1 Star Mike Pyle (-150)- This like opened around Pyle (-285); Public money went on Head who is improving but Pyle should outpoint Head in this one and possibly get the TKO.

Top Parlay

1 Star Roy Nelson; Dustin Poirier= (-105)

Forced Action Plays

Mike Ricci (-220)

Over 1.5 Rds. Waldburger vs Catone (-105)

Marcos Vinicius (+210)

Predictions

Nelson 4^th Rd TKO

Ricci UD

Del Rosairo 1^st Rd Sub

Poirier 2^nd Rd Sub

Pyle UD

Vinicius 3^rd Rd Sub

Pichel 2nd Rd TKO

Waldburger 3^rd Rd Sub

UFC on FX 6 Top Play and FAPs

Top Play:  

Ross Pearson (-125) vs. George Sotiropoulous (+105)

Pearson has strong boxing and solid takedown defense.  G-Sot is a grappler with very strong submissions.  Pearson has to keep this fight standing by throwing good combos along with footwork.  G-Sot has to get this to the ground or he will get picked apart in the striking.  If G-Sot gets this to the ground he has a very good chance of locking in a submission.  This one should be a close fight but take Ross Pearson (-145).  Also the only way G-Sot probably wins this fight is by submission so you may find it worth putting a small play on G-Sot by Sub (+300) (Forced Action Play).

Top Play:  1 Star Ross Pearson (-125)

Top Play

1 Star Ross Pearson (-145)

Forced Action Plays

Seth Baczynski (+340)

Joey Beltran (+250)

UFC on Fox 5 Predictions and Plays

Ben Henderson (-170) vs. Nate Diaz (+150)

Henderson is a very well rounded fighter with no true weaknesses.  Nate Diaz continues to improve with his high volume punching and takedown defense.  Nate was able to stuff Jim Millers takedowns using a strong Judo base to keep the fight standing.  Diaz should be able to control the standup with his boxing.  As Diaz wears down Henderson with punches look for Henderson possibly get subbed when he shoots in with a sloppy takedown attempt possibly in the 4^th or 5^th round.  Diaz could take this by decision but I think he will lock in a submission and force Henderson to tap.  Take Nate Diaz (+150)

Top Play:  2 Star Nate Diaz (+150)

Mike Swick (-170) vs. Matt Brown (+150)

Swick looked pretty solid in his last fight after the layoff.  Swick has solid striking and pretty good sub game.  Matt Brown is primarily a striker/brawler with a solid chin but his weakness is his submission defense and grappling.  Look for Mike Swick to lock in a submission sometime in the 2^nd round or possibly take this one by decision. Take Mike Swick (-170).

Top Play:  1 Star Mike Swick (-170)

Top Plays with a Short Write Up (Due to Time Restraints)

2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-185)- Stephens has pretty good wrestling and striking. His chin is much stronger than Yves Edwards and he has much more power in his hands.  Look for Stephens to connect and put Yves to sleep with a big punch in the 2^nd Rd.  Take Jeremy Stephens (-185).

3 Star Dennis Siver (-280)- Siver has been undervalued in nearly all of his fights. Siver has great kickboxing and will keep this fight standing against Phan landing big punches and kicks. Siver will take this either by a late TKO or by Decision. Take Dennis Siver (-280).

Top Parlays:  1 Star Dennis Siver (-280); Jeremy Stephens (-185)= (+110)

1 Star Jorgensen (-275); Mike Easton (-275)= (-115)

Top Plays

2 Star Nate Diaz (+150)

1 Star Mike Swick (-170)

2 Star Jeremy Stephens (-185)

3 Star Dennis Siver (-280)

Forced Action Plays

Shogun Rua prop bet by KO/TKO (+415)

Rory MacDonald prop bet by Decision (+110)

Mike Easton prop bet by Decision (-110)

Predictions

Diaz- 4^th Rd. Sub

Gustafsson- UD

MacDonald- UD

Swick- 2^nd Rd Sub

Stephens- 2^nd Rd TKO

Easton- UD

Nijem- UD

Cruickshank- UD

LeVessuer- UD

Siver- 2^nd Rd. TKO

Jorgensen- 2^nd Rd Sub