Monday, June 24, 2013

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UFC 161 Results


Rashad Evans (-155) vs. Dan Henderson (+145)
Evans is a solid wrestler and a great athlete.  Henderson is  a solid wrestler with power in his hands especially his right.  This is a close fight and Rashad needs to use his wrestling to win this fight and Henderson needs to keep it standing and win the clinch battle.  Henderson’s defensive wrestling has struggled in the past and Rashad has looked average in the striking department lately.  This is a hard fight to call and I think this is near a coin flip.  I am going to go with Dan Henderson by 2nd Rd TKO.

Top Play:  1/2 Star Dan Henderson (+145)

Top Play:

1/2 Star Jake Shields (+190)- Shields is a wonderful grappler, has strong takedowns and a high fighter IQ.  Woodley is a more explosive striker with solid wrestling.  Woodley doesn’t have the best defensive wrestling and Shields could get this fight to the ground and look for a submission or score points from top position. This fight should be closer to even in my opinion, take Jake Shields (+190).

Top Parlay
1 Star Roy Nelson; Alexis Davis (-140)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Roy Nelson Prop inside the distance (-120)
Shawn Jordan (+125)

Predictions:
Henderson 2nd Rd TKO
Nelson 2nd Rd TKO
Jimmo UD
Davis UD
Jordan 2nd Rd Sub
Shields UD
Stout UD
Pierson UD
Delorme 3rd Rd Sub
Maguire UD
Jabouin 2nd Rd TKO

Sunday, June 9, 2013

UFC on Fuel 10 Top Plays and Top Parlays go 5-1 & Profit 3 Units/Stars



Fabricio Werdum (-300) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+250) 5 Rds. Werdum has a very strong grappling, BJJ game and his striking continues to improve. Nogueira is a great grappler and has solid boxing, but he is getting older and look for his chin to get tested in this one.  Werdum takes this fight with his superior standup and TKOs Noguiera sometime in the 2nd Rd.  

Top Play:  1 Star Prop bet Fabricio Werdum wins Inside the Distance (-140)

Top Plays:
1/2 Star Prop Bet Fight won’t go the Distance Macario vs Santos (-105)- Macario is a dangerous striker and finishes most of his fights with his punching power. Santos is a strong grappler who wins many fights by submission.  I see either fighter being able to finish this fight.  Take the under 2.5 if you aren’t able to prop bet the fight won’t go the distance.

1 Star Erick Silva Prop wins Inside the Distance (-190)- Erick Silva is a finisher with explosive striking and a sick submission game.  I believe Erick Silva probably finishes this fight by TKO/KO but he could very easily lock in a submission if he hurts High. I was thinking of going Silva by TKO/KO prop at +115 but decided to play it safe and take Silva to win Inside the Distance.

½ Star Godofredo “Pepey” Castro (+190)- Castro is developing his striking game and is a very strong grappler with slick submissions.  Look for Castro to out strike and out grapple Arantes on his way to a decision victory.This line should be closer to even. 

Top Parlays
1 Star Erick Silva; Raphael Assuncao (-160)
1 Star Antonio Neto; Over 2.5 Rds Damm vs. Hiota (+125)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
William Macario (+180)
Karlos Vemola (-120)

Predictions:
Werdum 2nd Rd TKO
Macario 2nd Rd TKO
Calvacante 2nd Rd TKO
Sarafian 2nd Rd Sub
Silva 1st Rd TKO
Bezerra 3rd Rd TKO
Assuncao UD
Castro UD
Alcantara 2nd Rd Sub
Hirota UD
Vemola UD
Neto 1st Rd Sub

Saturday, June 1, 2013

UFC 160: We Cash again! Top Plays and Parlays Profit 1.2 Units

Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550) 5 Rds. For the HW Championship Cain is a well rounded and athletic HW.  His ability to mix his striking with his wrestling befuddles his opponents.  Antonio Silva is outclassed in every aspect of MMA vs Cain.  Cain could win this fight with his standup or take this to the ground and pummel Silva.  Look for Cain Velasquez to finish Antonio Silva in the 2nd rd via TKO/KO.  

Top Play:  2 Star Prop bet Cain Velasquez by TKO/KO -250

Top Plays:
1 Star Over 1.5 Rds. Junior Dos Santos vs Mark Hunt (-140)- Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers but both also have great chins.  I am predicting Junior Dos Santos to win this by decision and almost top played the prop Dos Santos by Dec. (+240) but I figured this is the safer play. If Mark Hunt gasses in the later rounds Dos Santos could possibly finish the fight. 

½ Star Mark Hunt (+380) Mark Hunt has been on a roll, he is a great striker with tons of power.  Hunt has been known to gas and Dos Santos is the big favorite in this fight and he is the better grappler with better cardio.  Mark Hunt could hurt Junior Dos Santos and finish him early, so this is almost a hedge play for the Top Play listed above, but of course Mark could Hurt JDS early as Cain did and finish the fight later or maybe even just bust JDS up for 3 rds and take a decision.  Again my prediction as you see below is JDS by Dec but Mark Hunt is a live dog with that chin and power. 

2 Star Glover Teixeria (-310)- Glover Teixeria is a looking like one of the top LHW today.  He is super well rounded and is a finisher with a strong chin.  Te Huna has lots of power in his hands but he has a weak grappling game.  Look for Glover Teixeria to get some takedowns and eventually lock in a submission on James Te Huna.  I feel like this is free money even though you might think Te Huna is dangerous.  I feel Glover will fight smart and use his strengthens vs Te Huna’s weaknesses.

½ Star Prop Bet Glover Teixeria by Submission +300

1 Star Over 2.5 Rds Maynard vs. Grant (-175)- Both of these fighters are well rounded, strong chins and it should be a pretty competitive fight.  Maynard has been looking for that knockout shot on his opponents lately but if he tries that with Grant he might see Grant landing more strikes.  I see Maynard using his strong wrestling to take this fight to the ground and control TJ Grant. 

½ Star Gray Maynard (-140)- Maynard is a great wrestler and solid striker. This line keeps moving, Vegas brought Maynard out as a (-250) favorite and the money keeps going on TJ Grant.  I agree with Vegas more so than where this line currently stands.  I nearly want to pull the trigger and unload a 3 star on this but we will play it safe as we have many plays tonight and bet this smaller.  I think this line movement kind of has me a little caught off guard, maybe it is because TJ Grant finished his last fight but that was against Chris Wiman who isn’t a very good defensive striker.  

½ Star Mike Pyle (+145)- Mike Pyle is defiantly a live dog here.  He can finish fights and is a battle tested veteran of the sport.  Rick Story is very predictable he comes forward throwing wild punches and is easy to takedown even though he is a solid offensive wrestler.  Pyle could finish this fight or he could out strike Story on his way to a decision victory.

Top Parlays
1 Star Glover Teixeira; Dennis Burmedez (-125)
1 Star Brian Bowles; Donald Cerrone (-120)
1 Star Colton Smith; Khabib Nurmagomedov (+140)

Forced Action Plays (FAPs) For Action Junkies
Nah-Shon Burrell (+140)

Predictions:
Velasquez 2nd Rd TKO
Dos Santos UD
Teixeira 2nd Rd Sub
Maynard UD
Cerrone UD
Pyle UD
Bermudez UD
 Smith UD
Nurmagomedov 2nd Rd Sub
Burrell UD
Bowles UD
Stephens 2nd Rd TKO