Monday, September 24, 2012

UFC 152: 6-2 on Top Plays! Including 3 Dogs Cashing!

Jon Jones (-840) vs. Vitor Belfort (+660) 5 RDS. UFC LHW Championship
As much as I despise Jon Jones as a person he is a wonderful fighter and is rightfully the favorite.  I don’t think he should be this big of a favorite but I don’t see Vitor as a strong bet. Vitor’s only shot of winning this is landing a big punch and getting the KO or TKO.  Look for Jones to keep his distance from the Belfort blitzes and eventually land a takedown getting dominate position and raining down nasty ground and pound until the ref stops this contest.  Was thinking the prop bet by TKO/KO at -150 but I think it’s a little gamble b/c Jones could just as well Sub Vitor.  Unless you really want to gamble on Vitor getting that 1 punch KO, which I don’t think is a strong gamble considering how hard Jones is to hit.  Take Jon Jones Prop bet wins Inside Distance (-350).

Top Play: 2 Star Jon Jones Inside the Distance prop bet (-350)

Joseph Benavidez (-255) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+235) 5 RDS. UFC Flyweight Championship
Benavidez is a great fighter and well rounded, his only 2 losses are to Dominic Cruz.  Look for this fight to be close in the standup but  look for Benavidez to get multiple takedowns in the fight.  Benavidez should do enough to please the judges and take this by decision.  Take Joseph Benavidez prop bet by Decision (-130)

Top Play: 1 Star Joseph Benavidez by Decision prop bet (-130)

Michael Bisping (-185) vs. Brian Stann (+170)
Bisping has solid and technical boxing and an underrated ground game.  He has been know to shoot for a takedown or grapple if needed to, which shows he can adjust gameplans.  I don’t think he wants to stand and trade all day with Stann but look for Bisping to Clinch up push Stann against the cage and work for a takedown sometime in the fight.  Stann has to catch Bisping with a big punch and Bisping will look to counter punch.  Take Michael Bisping (-185).

Top Play: 1 Star Michael Bisping (-185)

Evan Dunham (-125) vs. TJ Grant (+115)
Two well rounded fighters with strong BJJ games and not too much dynamite in the hands.  Take the over 2.5 Rds. (-190).

Top Play: 2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Evan Dunham vs TJ Grant (-190)

Other Top Plays no write ups (Time Restrictions):
1/2 Star Simeon Thoresen (+115)
1/2 Star Mitch Gagnon (+170)
1/2 Star Vinicius Magalhaes (+135)
1/2 Star Sean Pierson (+200)

UFC 152 Top Play, Parlays:

Top Plays:
2 Star Jon Jones Inside the Distance prop bet (-350)
1 Star Joseph Benavidez by Decision prop bet (-130)
1 Star Michael Bisping (-185)
2 Star Over 2.5 Rds. Evan Dunham vs TJ Grant (-190)
1/2 Star Simeon Thoresen (+115)
1/2 Star Mitch Gagnon (+170)
1/2 Star Vinicius Magalhaes (+135)
1/2 Star Sean Pierson (+200)

Top Parlays:
1 Star Charlie Brennaman; Matt Hamill; Joseph Benavidez
1 Star Jim Hettes; Over 1.5 Rds Gagnon vs Watson